Aftermath
On any day, over the next month
Every session: the plain holding return, the baseline for the events below. Each stock's median gain after its own events of this kind in the past 5 years, from the close of the session the event was known. Updated .
The typical S&P 500 stock gained +0.86% over the next month on any day (half of them between +0.16% and +1.54%).
Best on any day
| # | Stock | Median (likely range) | Confidence | Average | Up | vs SPY | Worst · best | Events |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | HWM Howmet Aerospace | +3.27%+2.6 to +4.3 | High | +3.88% | 68% | +2.07% | -23% · +39% | 1234 |
| 2 | FIX Comfort Systems USA | +4.58%+2.7 to +6.1 | High | +5.98% | 66% | +3.48% | -34% · +45% | 1234 |
| 3 | ANET Arista Networks | +4.34%+2.8 to +6.0 | High | +4.47% | 65% | +3.02% | -33% · +48% | 1234 |
| 4 | MCK McKesson Corporation | +2.97%+2.0 to +3.9 | High | +2.79% | 68% | +1.81% | -18% · +26% | 1234 |
| 5 | PWR Quanta Services | +3.51%+1.9 to +4.6 | High | +3.42% | 66% | +2.03% | -27% · +41% | 1234 |
| 6 | WDC Western Digital | +4.47%+2.7 to +6.2 | High | +5.34% | 64% | +2.34% | -32% · +64% | 1234 |
| 7 | MPC Marathon Petroleum | +3.96%+2.2 to +5.6 | High | +3.80% | 64% | +2.31% | -27% · +35% | 1234 |
| 8 | IBKR Interactive Brokers | +3.29%+1.9 to +4.3 | High | +3.31% | 63% | +1.54% | -27% · +37% | 1234 |
| 9 | TRGP Targa Resources | +3.40%+2.0 to +5.0 | High | +3.39% | 64% | +2.31% | -27% · +27% | 1234 |
| 10 | AVGO Broadcom | +3.29%+1.8 to +4.5 | High | +4.16% | 62% | +1.69% | -25% · +49% | 1234 |
| 11 | MU Micron Technology | +4.11%+2.0 to +5.7 | High | +6.16% | 61% | +2.61% | -35% · +100% | 1234 |
| 12 | VLO Valero Energy | +3.47%+2.1 to +4.9 | High | +3.57% | 64% | +1.82% | -27% · +33% | 1234 |
| 13 | GE GE Aerospace | +3.07%+1.6 to +4.3 | High | +3.24% | 63% | +1.32% | -21% · +32% | 1234 |
| 14 | CEG Constellation Energy | +3.09%+1.7 to +4.2 | High | +4.25% | 61% | +1.67% | -35% · +62% | 1160 |
| 15 | BNY BNY Mellon | +2.54%+1.8 to +3.5 | High | +2.17% | 67% | +1.44% | -21% · +22% | 1234 |
| 16 | STX Seagate Technology | +3.80%+1.7 to +5.3 | High | +5.41% | 61% | +2.10% | -29% · +77% | 1234 |
| 17 | COR Cencora | +2.59%+1.6 to +3.5 | High | +1.96% | 64% | +1.02% | -21% · +18% | 1234 |
| 18 | DELL Dell Technologies | +4.13%+2.2 to +6.1 | High | +5.29% | 62% | +2.61% | -39% · +123% | 1234 |
| 19 | NVDA Nvidia | +3.36%+1.9 to +5.1 | High | +5.10% | 62% | +2.17% | -35% · +52% | 1234 |
| 20 | CRWD CrowdStrike | +4.26%+1.9 to +6.2 | High | +3.35% | 61% | +2.62% | -44% · +75% | 1234 |
| 21 | WAB Wabtec | +2.49%+1.3 to +3.3 | High | +2.23% | 62% | +1.33% | -15% · +23% | 1234 |
| 22 | PANW Palo Alto Networks | +2.69%+1.6 to +4.1 | High | +3.24% | 61% | +1.35% | -30% · +68% | 1234 |
| 23 | PSX Phillips 66 | +2.95%+1.4 to +4.2 | High | +2.79% | 62% | +1.23% | -26% · +35% | 1234 |
| 24 | GEV GE Vernova | +7.06%+3.3 to +10.2 | High | +7.75% | 67% | +5.99% | -28% · +48% | 611 |
| 25 | LRCX Lam Research | +3.17%+1.6 to +4.9 | High | +3.85% | 61% | +1.64% | -39% · +56% | 1234 |
Worst on any day
| # | Stock | Median (likely range) | Confidence | Average | Up | vs SPY | Worst · best | Events |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FDXF FedEx Freight | -8.91%-11.6 to -7.3 | Low | -9.09% | 7% | -9.95% | -21% · +7% | 69 |
| 2 | VBIO meme | -13.66%-17.4 to -10.1 | High | -12.53% | 29% | -15.15% | -75% · +185% | 1206 |
| 3 | OPEN meme | -9.69%-13.3 to -7.1 | High | +3.41% | 34% | -10.64% | -53% · +453% | 1234 |
| 4 | CHTR Charter Communications | -2.15%-3.3 to -0.9 | High | -2.13% | 41% | -3.08% | -42% · +31% | 1234 |
| 5 | WEN meme | -1.68%-2.4 to -0.5 | High | -1.25% | 41% | -2.71% | -28% · +26% | 1234 |
| 6 | CSGP CoStar Group | -1.64%-2.6 to -0.6 | High | -1.49% | 42% | -2.22% | -32% · +30% | 1234 |
| 7 | DIS Walt Disney Company … | -1.47%-2.5 to -0.3 | High | -0.38% | 42% | -2.68% | -21% · +37% | 1234 |
| 8 | SSM meme | -12.48%-15.7 to -7.8 | High | +89.35% | 33% | -12.02% | -98% · +15900% | 1202 |
| 9 | HTZ meme | -4.58%-6.9 to -2.2 | High | -1.87% | 40% | -4.40% | -64% · +162% | 1234 |
| 10 | ARE Alexandria Real Estate … | -1.65%-2.9 to -0.7 | High | -1.41% | 43% | -2.60% | -37% · +33% | 1234 |
| 11 | NKE Nike, Inc. | -1.74%-3.1 to -0.3 | High | -1.85% | 42% | -3.07% | -30% · +27% | 1234 |
| 12 | ZTS Zoetis | -1.21%-2.1 to 0.0 | High | -1.31% | 45% | -1.74% | -38% · +19% | 1234 |
| 13 | APTV Aptiv | -2.14%-4.1 to -0.7 | High | -1.59% | 41% | -3.04% | -27% · +44% | 1234 |
| 14 | TLT meme | -0.73%-1.4 to -0.1 | High | -0.61% | 43% | -1.75% | -12% · +18% | 1234 |
| 15 | BIIB Biogen | -1.12%-2.2 to -0.1 | High | -0.03% | 43% | -2.11% | -24% · +42% | 1234 |
| 16 | PODD Insulet Corporation | -1.32%-2.7 to -0.2 | High | -0.55% | 44% | -1.76% | -35% · +44% | 1234 |
| 17 | CCI Crown Castle | -1.19%-2.4 to 0.0 | High | -0.80% | 44% | -2.52% | -24% · +29% | 1234 |
| 18 | PYPL PayPal | -2.01%-3.7 to -0.1 | High | -1.77% | 44% | -2.37% | -42% · +45% | 1234 |
| 19 | SBAC SBA Communications | -1.06%-2.3 to +0.1 | High | -0.63% | 45% | -2.34% | -23% · +33% | 1234 |
| 20 | WY Weyerhaeuser | -0.85%-1.7 to +0.3 | High | -0.35% | 46% | -2.16% | -23% · +18% | 1234 |
| 21 | PSKY Paramount Skydance Corporation | -2.15%-3.9 to 0.0 | High | -1.10% | 44% | -3.61% | -35% · +59% | 1234 |
| 22 | BXP BXP, Inc. | -1.01%-2.4 to +0.2 | High | -0.16% | 45% | -2.39% | -31% · +34% | 1234 |
| 23 | HRL Hormel Foods | -0.71%-1.5 to +0.3 | High | -0.69% | 46% | -2.06% | -20% · +26% | 1234 |
| 24 | WYNN Wynn Resorts | -1.13%-2.3 to +0.4 | High | +0.53% | 46% | -2.09% | -29% · +43% | 1234 |
| 25 | BBY Best Buy | -0.95%-2.2 to +0.1 | High | +0.50% | 45% | -1.65% | -29% · +41% | 1234 |
Stocks with at least 3 independent periods, ordered on an evidence-weighted median: each stock's median is pulled toward the S&P 500 typical value in proportion to its uncertainty, so a lucky handful of events cannot top the list. Confidence counts independent holding periods (overlapping ones count once): High 20+, Medium 8+, Low 3+. Median and average gain over the next month from the entry close; Up = share of events followed by a gain; vs SPY = median gain minus SPY over the same sessions. Ranks on the stock pages place each stock among the S&P 500 stocks. Small samples are noisy, and the past does not repeat on schedule. Not advice.