Aftermath
On any day, over the next week
Every session: the plain holding return, the baseline for the events below. Each stock's median gain after its own events of this kind in the past 5 years, from the close of the session the event was known. Updated .
The typical S&P 500 stock gained +0.27% over the next week on any day (half of them between +0.11% and +0.44%).
Best on any day
| # | Stock | Median (likely range) | Confidence | Average | Up | vs SPY | Worst · best | Events |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | PWR Quanta Services | +1.02%+0.8 to +1.2 | High | +0.82% | 61% | +0.57% | -18% · +25% | 1250 |
| 2 | FIX Comfort Systems USA | +1.20%+0.9 to +1.6 | High | +1.43% | 60% | +0.86% | -23% · +29% | 1250 |
| 3 | LRCX Lam Research | +1.15%+0.8 to +1.5 | High | +0.96% | 58% | +0.63% | -23% · +23% | 1250 |
| 4 | TRGP Targa Resources | +0.94%+0.7 to +1.2 | High | +0.81% | 60% | +0.60% | -21% · +16% | 1250 |
| 5 | STX Seagate Technology | +1.20%+0.8 to +1.5 | High | +1.26% | 58% | +0.66% | -21% · +33% | 1250 |
| 6 | HWM Howmet Aerospace | +0.89%+0.6 to +1.1 | High | +0.89% | 58% | +0.50% | -14% · +22% | 1250 |
| 7 | GEV GE Vernova | +1.76%+1.0 to +2.3 | High | +1.78% | 62% | +1.54% | -18% · +23% | 627 |
| 8 | GE GE Aerospace | +0.94%+0.6 to +1.2 | High | +0.73% | 59% | +0.38% | -17% · +13% | 1250 |
| 9 | NVDA Nvidia | +1.22%+0.7 to +1.7 | High | +1.21% | 58% | +0.83% | -22% · +30% | 1250 |
| 10 | MPC Marathon Petroleum | +0.97%+0.6 to +1.3 | High | +0.90% | 58% | +0.55% | -19% · +19% | 1250 |
| 11 | VRT Vertiv | +1.46%+0.9 to +2.0 | High | +1.35% | 57% | +1.06% | -44% · +38% | 1250 |
| 12 | ANET Arista Networks | +1.18%+0.7 to +1.7 | High | +1.11% | 58% | +0.65% | -21% · +29% | 1250 |
| 13 | EME Emcor | +0.79%+0.6 to +1.0 | High | +0.86% | 59% | +0.42% | -18% · +22% | 1250 |
| 14 | WDC Western Digital | +1.11%+0.6 to +1.6 | High | +1.23% | 58% | +0.49% | -25% · +45% | 1250 |
| 15 | BNY BNY Mellon | +0.71%+0.5 to +0.9 | High | +0.51% | 60% | +0.21% | -16% · +12% | 1250 |
| 16 | DELL Dell Technologies | +0.89%+0.6 to +1.3 | High | +1.26% | 57% | +0.59% | -23% · +66% | 1250 |
| 17 | VST Vistra Corp. | +0.83%+0.5 to +1.1 | High | +1.06% | 57% | +0.52% | -20% · +31% | 1250 |
| 18 | IBKR Interactive Brokers | +0.87%+0.5 to +1.2 | High | +0.78% | 57% | +0.63% | -17% · +20% | 1250 |
| 19 | HPE Hewlett Packard Enterprise | +0.75%+0.5 to +1.0 | High | +0.82% | 56% | +0.42% | -21% · +48% | 1250 |
| 20 | LLY Lilly (Eli) | +0.80%+0.5 to +1.1 | High | +0.78% | 58% | +0.24% | -18% · +21% | 1250 |
| 21 | FLEX Flex Ltd. | +0.83%+0.6 to +1.2 | High | +1.04% | 57% | +0.59% | -20% · +58% | 1250 |
| 22 | APH Amphenol | +0.70%+0.5 to +0.9 | High | +0.72% | 59% | +0.34% | -15% · +20% | 1250 |
| 23 | STLD Steel Dynamics | +0.94%+0.5 to +1.3 | High | +0.71% | 55% | +0.19% | -23% · +22% | 1250 |
| 24 | CRWD CrowdStrike | +0.95%+0.6 to +1.4 | High | +0.87% | 57% | +0.65% | -31% · +26% | 1250 |
| 25 | SNDK Sandisk | +5.04%+3.8 to +6.8 | High | +5.72% | 66% | +4.45% | -39% · +47% | 406 |
Worst on any day
| # | Stock | Median (likely range) | Confidence | Average | Up | vs SPY | Worst · best | Events |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | VBIO meme | -3.57%-4.3 to -2.9 | High | -2.52% | 35% | -3.66% | -73% · +210% | 1222 |
| 2 | OPEN meme | -1.97%-2.6 to -1.2 | High | +0.49% | 43% | -2.27% | -35% · +256% | 1250 |
| 3 | NKE Nike, Inc. | -0.51%-0.8 to -0.2 | High | -0.42% | 46% | -0.50% | -22% · +26% | 1250 |
| 4 | FDXF FedEx Freight | -2.17%-2.8 to -1.3 | Medium | -1.89% | 28% | -2.26% | -15% · +23% | 85 |
| 5 | SSM meme | -2.78%-3.5 to -2.0 | High | +14.17% | 38% | -3.07% | -96% · +2900% | 1218 |
| 6 | BF-B Brown–Forman | -0.27%-0.4 to -0.1 | High | -0.25% | 45% | -0.58% | -20% · +19% | 1250 |
| 7 | HTZ meme | -0.96%-1.4 to -0.3 | High | -0.35% | 45% | -1.00% | -55% · +132% | 1250 |
| 8 | SBAC SBA Communications | -0.30%-0.5 to -0.1 | High | -0.17% | 46% | -0.70% | -14% · +27% | 1250 |
| 9 | WEN meme | -0.38%-0.6 to 0.0 | High | -0.31% | 46% | -0.72% | -17% · +34% | 1250 |
| 10 | TLT meme | -0.17%-0.3 to 0.0 | High | -0.15% | 46% | -0.53% | -6% · +7% | 1250 |
| 11 | IDXX Idexx Laboratories | -0.28%-0.6 to 0.0 | High | +0.05% | 47% | -0.55% | -22% · +23% | 1250 |
| 12 | CCI Crown Castle | -0.22%-0.4 to 0.0 | High | -0.21% | 47% | -0.63% | -14% · +14% | 1250 |
| 13 | CHTR Charter Communications | -0.40%-0.7 to 0.0 | High | -0.56% | 47% | -0.79% | -35% · +23% | 1250 |
| 14 | MAS Masco | -0.23%-0.4 to 0.0 | High | +0.20% | 47% | -0.29% | -16% · +18% | 1250 |
| 15 | WY Weyerhaeuser | -0.20%-0.4 to 0.0 | High | -0.11% | 47% | -0.57% | -15% · +15% | 1250 |
| 16 | CLX Clorox | -0.19%-0.4 to 0.0 | High | -0.14% | 47% | -0.62% | -15% · +15% | 1250 |
| 17 | ONDS meme | -1.93%-2.9 to -1.2 | High | +1.28% | 44% | -2.26% | -40% · +104% | 1250 |
| 18 | GME meme | -0.84%-1.4 to -0.2 | High | +0.51% | 46% | -1.03% | -55% · +199% | 1250 |
| 19 | IOVA meme | -1.11%-1.6 to -0.3 | High | +0.66% | 46% | -1.11% | -56% · +81% | 1250 |
| 20 | IBRX meme | -1.29%-1.9 to -0.4 | High | +1.38% | 45% | -1.74% | -59% · +150% | 1250 |
| 21 | CSGP CoStar Group | -0.27%-0.6 to 0.0 | High | -0.33% | 48% | -0.61% | -22% · +18% | 1250 |
| 22 | NIVF meme | -0.10%-0.3 to 0.0 | High | +1.42% | 39% | -2.02% | -91% · +1725% | 1135 |
| 23 | AMT American Tower | -0.11%-0.3 to +0.1 | High | -0.05% | 49% | -0.55% | -14% · +13% | 1250 |
| 24 | EL Estée Lauder Companies … | -0.26%-0.5 to +0.1 | High | -0.27% | 48% | -0.46% | -27% · +24% | 1250 |
| 25 | KVUE Kenvue | -0.16%-0.4 to +0.1 | High | -0.09% | 48% | -0.72% | -16% · +17% | 852 |
Stocks with at least 3 independent periods, ordered on an evidence-weighted median: each stock's median is pulled toward the S&P 500 typical value in proportion to its uncertainty, so a lucky handful of events cannot top the list. Confidence counts independent holding periods (overlapping ones count once): High 20+, Medium 8+, Low 3+. Median and average gain over the next week from the entry close; Up = share of events followed by a gain; vs SPY = median gain minus SPY over the same sessions. Ranks on the stock pages place each stock among the S&P 500 stocks. Small samples are noisy, and the past does not repeat on schedule. Not advice.