Aftermath
On any day, over the next quarter
Every session: the plain holding return, the baseline for the events below. Each stock's median gain after its own events of this kind in the past 5 years, from the close of the session the event was known. Updated .
The typical S&P 500 stock gained +2.15% over the next quarter on any day (half of them between +0.13% and +4.73%).
Best on any day
| # | Stock | Median (likely range) | Confidence | Average | Up | vs SPY | Worst · best | Events |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FIX Comfort Systems USA | +18.30%+12.6 to +23.1 | Medium | +18.91% | 78% | +13.98% | -37% · +83% | 1192 |
| 2 | HWM Howmet Aerospace | +12.40%+10.3 to +15.2 | Medium | +12.67% | 87% | +8.44% | -20% · +60% | 1192 |
| 3 | ANET Arista Networks | +12.36%+8.9 to +16.1 | Medium | +12.07% | 74% | +9.26% | -45% · +73% | 1192 |
| 4 | PWR Quanta Services | +11.42%+8.0 to +14.9 | Medium | +10.71% | 76% | +7.71% | -30% · +69% | 1192 |
| 5 | MCK McKesson Corporation | +9.57%+7.8 to +11.3 | Medium | +8.22% | 81% | +5.47% | -26% · +32% | 1192 |
| 6 | CAH Cardinal Health | +9.39%+7.8 to +11.2 | Medium | +9.81% | 79% | +6.38% | -19% · +44% | 1192 |
| 7 | VRT Vertiv | +17.88%+9.0 to +25.5 | Medium | +19.78% | 70% | +13.90% | -61% · +150% | 1192 |
| 8 | KLAC KLA Corporation | +11.43%+6.8 to +16.1 | Medium | +10.75% | 70% | +8.62% | -35% · +119% | 1192 |
| 9 | GEV GE Vernova | +21.76%+12.8 to +33.7 | Medium | +25.64% | 79% | +15.62% | -23% · +95% | 569 |
| 10 | AVGO Broadcom | +11.76%+6.2 to +16.7 | Medium | +12.69% | 70% | +8.35% | -37% · +86% | 1192 |
| 11 | TKO TKO Group Holdings | +9.34%+5.9 to +11.9 | Medium | +8.01% | 77% | +6.00% | -30% · +51% | 1192 |
| 12 | FLEX Flex Ltd. | +11.00%+6.1 to +16.1 | Medium | +14.89% | 71% | +7.52% | -35% · +168% | 1192 |
| 13 | CASY Casey's | +8.42%+6.4 to +10.0 | Medium | +8.12% | 82% | +3.64% | -33% · +38% | 1192 |
| 14 | GE GE Aerospace | +10.18%+5.7 to +14.6 | Medium | +10.86% | 75% | +5.73% | -33% · +57% | 1192 |
| 15 | TSM meme | +10.11%+5.2 to +13.5 | Medium | +9.08% | 70% | +5.29% | -35% · +63% | 1192 |
| 16 | EME Emcor | +10.52%+6.0 to +16.0 | Medium | +11.76% | 69% | +5.74% | -30% · +73% | 1192 |
| 17 | WELL Welltower | +8.04%+6.2 to +9.4 | Medium | +6.84% | 83% | +3.42% | -32% · +31% | 1192 |
| 18 | TRGP Targa Resources | +9.19%+5.9 to +13.7 | Medium | +10.75% | 78% | +6.75% | -27% · +50% | 1192 |
| 19 | IBKR Interactive Brokers | +9.08%+4.7 to +12.5 | Medium | +10.25% | 72% | +5.21% | -28% · +63% | 1192 |
| 20 | BNY BNY Mellon | +8.19%+5.2 to +10.9 | Medium | +6.95% | 75% | +4.70% | -33% · +36% | 1192 |
| 21 | CEG Constellation Energy | +10.57%+4.8 to +16.5 | Medium | +12.34% | 66% | +6.36% | -39% · +83% | 1118 |
| 22 | MPC Marathon Petroleum | +9.52%+4.8 to +14.4 | Medium | +11.29% | 70% | +5.03% | -25% · +75% | 1192 |
| 23 | RCL Royal Caribbean Group | +10.11%+4.5 to +15.0 | Medium | +10.31% | 66% | +6.14% | -60% · +90% | 1192 |
| 24 | FICO Fair Isaac | +10.02%+3.0 to +13.8 | Medium | +7.50% | 65% | +6.85% | -51% · +59% | 1192 |
| 25 | LQDA meme | +12.52%+6.9 to +23.0 | Medium | +22.61% | 68% | +9.34% | -65% · +146% | 1192 |
Worst on any day
| # | Stock | Median (likely range) | Confidence | Average | Up | vs SPY | Worst · best | Events |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | OPEN meme | -22.68%-28.8 to -15.3 | Medium | +31.76% | 31% | -24.55% | -75% · +1701% | 1192 |
| 2 | VBIO meme | -34.20%-47.9 to -26.3 | Medium | -33.16% | 18% | -39.90% | -89% · +94% | 1164 |
| 3 | NKE Nike, Inc. | -8.41%-11.1 to -5.9 | Medium | -5.72% | 24% | -10.76% | -35% · +48% | 1192 |
| 4 | NAMM meme | -33.76%-47.9 to -25.1 | Low | -8.03% | 25% | -40.60% | -90% · +209% | 270 |
| 5 | HTZ meme | -10.14%-14.6 to -4.6 | Medium | -7.59% | 34% | -11.46% | -76% · +122% | 1192 |
| 6 | BAX Baxter International | -8.43%-11.2 to -3.2 | Medium | -4.32% | 36% | -8.39% | -35% · +71% | 1192 |
| 7 | BLGO meme | -9.09%-11.5 to -4.5 | Medium | +0.23% | 32% | -10.92% | -44% · +144% | 1192 |
| 8 | APTV Aptiv | -6.23%-9.4 to -2.1 | Medium | -4.96% | 37% | -8.33% | -41% · +45% | 1192 |
| 9 | ADBE Adobe Inc. | -7.30%-10.6 to -2.5 | Medium | -3.29% | 36% | -10.11% | -37% · +57% | 1192 |
| 10 | CCI Crown Castle | -5.16%-7.1 to -2.4 | Medium | -2.76% | 35% | -8.82% | -29% · +31% | 1192 |
| 11 | EL Estée Lauder Companies … | -7.32%-11.7 to -2.9 | Medium | -4.36% | 37% | -8.46% | -39% · +85% | 1192 |
| 12 | SSM meme | -27.35%-38.5 to -13.3 | Medium | +87.73% | 33% | -27.39% | -99% · +4900% | 1160 |
| 13 | ARE Alexandria Real Estate … | -4.50%-6.9 to -2.4 | Medium | -4.94% | 36% | -6.98% | -46% · +37% | 1192 |
| 14 | ALGN Align Technology | -7.77%-12.3 to -1.3 | Medium | -3.80% | 39% | -11.12% | -53% · +95% | 1192 |
| 15 | SBAC SBA Communications | -4.71%-7.4 to -1.9 | Medium | -2.37% | 37% | -7.20% | -23% · +31% | 1192 |
| 16 | CHTR Charter Communications | -7.52%-12.2 to -0.2 | Medium | -6.21% | 38% | -7.35% | -49% · +48% | 1192 |
| 17 | MOS Mosaic Company (The) | -4.24%-6.4 to -1.4 | Medium | -0.02% | 38% | -8.30% | -44% · +87% | 1192 |
| 18 | EFX Equifax | -4.93%-7.5 to -0.7 | Medium | -1.22% | 38% | -6.33% | -29% · +53% | 1192 |
| 19 | CAPS meme | -18.78%-23.6 to 0.0 | Medium | -13.68% | 16% | -20.13% | -80% · +183% | 1192 |
| 20 | ZTS Zoetis | -4.16%-6.7 to -1.3 | Medium | -4.41% | 36% | -6.14% | -42% · +26% | 1192 |
| 21 | BF-B Brown–Forman | -3.63%-6.1 to -2.0 | Medium | -3.91% | 35% | -7.20% | -32% · +25% | 1192 |
| 22 | PYPL PayPal | -4.91%-8.8 to -0.5 | Medium | -4.75% | 39% | -10.29% | -50% · +42% | 1192 |
| 23 | WEN meme | -3.89%-7.8 to -1.5 | Medium | -3.70% | 34% | -7.53% | -31% · +33% | 1192 |
| 24 | UPST meme | -13.67%-22.7 to -3.7 | Medium | +2.37% | 37% | -16.11% | -75% · +462% | 1192 |
| 25 | SWKS Skyworks Solutions | -4.73%-8.3 to +0.9 | Medium | -2.19% | 42% | -7.37% | -45% · +60% | 1192 |
Stocks with at least 3 independent periods, ordered on an evidence-weighted median: each stock's median is pulled toward the S&P 500 typical value in proportion to its uncertainty, so a lucky handful of events cannot top the list. Confidence counts independent holding periods (overlapping ones count once): High 20+, Medium 8+, Low 3+. Median and average gain over the next quarter from the entry close; Up = share of events followed by a gain; vs SPY = median gain minus SPY over the same sessions. Ranks on the stock pages place each stock among the S&P 500 stocks. Small samples are noisy, and the past does not repeat on schedule. Not advice.