Aftermath
After an earnings beat, over the next quarter
EPS above the consensus; entry at the close of the session that first traded on it. Each stock's median gain after its own events of this kind in the past 5 years, from the close of the session the event was known. Updated .
The typical S&P 500 stock gained +2.27% over the next quarter after an earnings beat (half of them between -0.43% and +5.03%), against +2.15% on any day.
Latest earnings beats, last few sessions
| Entry | Stock | Its median, 1 quarter | Confidence | Rank | Up | Events | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 2 | NKE Nike, Inc. | 1Q2027 · EPS +$0.04 (+9.9%) vs consensus · -3.6% reaction | -7.77% | Medium | #496 of 497 | 28% | 18 |
| Oct 1 | ACN Accenture | 4Q2026 · EPS +$0.11 (+3.4%) vs consensus · +15.8% reaction | -6.30% | Medium | #461 of 497 | 38% | 16 |
| Oct 1 | MKC McCormick & Company | 3Q2026 · EPS +$0.10 (+13.8%) vs consensus · -4.9% reaction | +0.97% | Medium | #309 of 497 | 57% | 14 |
| Oct 1 | MU Micron Technology | 4Q2026 · EPS +$1.60 (+5.0%) vs consensus · +3.0% reaction | +8.28% | Medium | #184 of 497 | 65% | 17 |
| Sep 30 | FDS FactSet | 4Q2026 · EPS +$0.17 (+4.0%) vs consensus · +3.8% reaction | -0.17% | Medium | #446 of 497 | 50% | 14 |
| Sep 30 | JBL Jabil | 4Q2026 · EPS +$0.32 (+8.0%) vs consensus · -10.0% reaction | +9.42% | Medium | #28 of 497 | 72% | 18 |
| Sep 29 | CCL Carnival Corporation | 3Q2026 · EPS +$0.08 (+5.9%) vs consensus · +13.4% reaction | +8.26% | Medium | #80 of 497 | 67% | 15 |
Best after an earnings beat
| # | Stock | Median (likely range) | Confidence | Average | Up | vs SPY | Worst · best | Events |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | HWM Howmet Aerospace | +11.32%+6.9 to +13.3 | Medium | +10.81% | 88% | +5.09% | -11% · +31% | 17 |
| 2 | CMI Cummins | +11.47%+8.5 to +16.0 | Medium | +12.15% | 100% | +6.06% | +4% · +24% | 9 |
| 3 | WELL Welltower | +8.93%+5.9 to +10.3 | Medium | +7.59% | 85% | +2.42% | -3% · +17% | 13 |
| 4 | FIX Comfort Systems USA | +17.59%+6.8 to +19.9 | Medium | +17.35% | 83% | +12.52% | -8% · +75% | 18 |
| 5 | CAH Cardinal Health | +11.85%+6.7 to +13.9 | Medium | +9.86% | 75% | +5.30% | -18% · +41% | 16 |
| 6 | CASY Casey's | +9.28%+3.1 to +10.4 | Medium | +5.13% | 82% | +1.27% | -31% · +24% | 17 |
| 7 | JCI Johnson Controls | +9.50%+8.3 to +10.4 | Medium | +6.06% | 85% | +3.27% | -21% · +17% | 13 |
| 8 | MCK McKesson Corporation | +12.32%+5.8 to +13.8 | Medium | +8.92% | 81% | +8.05% | -21% · +27% | 16 |
| 9 | EME Emcor | +11.54%+8.3 to +13.0 | Medium | +13.00% | 71% | +3.99% | -5% · +57% | 17 |
| 10 | MPC Marathon Petroleum | +11.37%+7.5 to +14.9 | Medium | +9.97% | 82% | +4.91% | -15% · +40% | 17 |
| 11 | DELL Dell Technologies | +9.27%+8.6 to +10.8 | Medium | +21.22% | 75% | +7.85% | -24% · +185% | 16 |
| 12 | VRTX Vertex Pharmaceuticals | +10.33%+3.6 to +13.6 | Medium | +9.72% | 86% | +7.71% | -6% · +29% | 14 |
| 13 | TRGP Targa Resources | +11.55%+4.6 to +14.5 | Medium | +12.34% | 83% | +12.87% | -7% · +31% | 12 |
| 14 | ALL Allstate | +6.13%+2.8 to +7.3 | Medium | +6.61% | 85% | -0.76% | -6% · +22% | 13 |
| 15 | GD General Dynamics | +6.59%+3.0 to +8.2 | Medium | +5.62% | 75% | +1.89% | -7% · +19% | 16 |
| 16 | SCHW Charles Schwab Corporation | +11.46%+4.9 to +14.7 | Medium | +8.97% | 73% | +7.00% | -18% · +27% | 15 |
| 17 | TRV Travelers Companies (The) | +5.44%+3.4 to +6.9 | Medium | +6.09% | 80% | +1.19% | -10% · +31% | 15 |
| 18 | EBAY eBay Inc. | +9.35%-0.6 to +12.4 | Medium | +7.27% | 63% | +4.76% | -20% · +41% | 19 |
| 19 | RCL Royal Caribbean Group | +21.30%+11.7 to +32.6 | Medium | +19.37% | 80% | +17.19% | -25% · +54% | 15 |
| 20 | JPM JPMorgan Chase | +8.00%+4.5 to +11.9 | Medium | +6.98% | 73% | +1.61% | -18% · +28% | 15 |
| 21 | VLO Valero Energy | +11.28%+6.0 to +16.7 | Medium | +10.39% | 74% | +9.31% | -23% · +43% | 19 |
| 22 | DRI Darden Restaurants | +8.01%-1.8 to +9.7 | Medium | +3.78% | 67% | -2.32% | -18% · +14% | 12 |
| 23 | IRM Iron Mountain | +10.71%+1.6 to +13.2 | Medium | +6.81% | 73% | +0.52% | -12% · +22% | 11 |
| 24 | PWR Quanta Services | +8.90%+4.2 to +13.2 | Medium | +7.23% | 71% | +2.71% | -21% · +28% | 17 |
| 25 | APH Amphenol | +7.75%-0.7 to +9.7 | Medium | +8.19% | 63% | +3.09% | -10% · +47% | 19 |
Worst after an earnings beat
| # | Stock | Median (likely range) | Confidence | Average | Up | vs SPY | Worst · best | Events |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | VICI Vici Properties | -7.62%-8.2 to -3.4 | Low | -5.70% | 14% | -7.33% | -13% · +5% | 7 |
| 2 | BB meme | -13.69%-15.6 to -11.2 | Medium | +2.35% | 29% | -9.95% | -36% · +187% | 14 |
| 3 | NKE Nike, Inc. | -7.77%-13.6 to -3.3 | Medium | -3.49% | 28% | -10.91% | -21% · +41% | 18 |
| 4 | ABT Abbott Laboratories | -2.47%-4.2 to +0.1 | Medium | -0.05% | 36% | -1.16% | -14% · +21% | 14 |
| 5 | GME meme | -13.39%-15.8 to -5.2 | Medium | -6.38% | 30% | -12.49% | -21% · +30% | 10 |
| 6 | AON Aon plc | -2.44%-3.0 to -1.5 | Medium | -1.16% | 31% | +0.41% | -13% · +15% | 13 |
| 7 | PFE Pfizer | -4.27%-6.1 to +0.9 | Medium | -1.60% | 37% | -5.71% | -14% · +20% | 19 |
| 8 | EFX Equifax | -2.79%-6.7 to -0.8 | Medium | -0.45% | 33% | -7.53% | -20% · +48% | 18 |
| 9 | PAYX Paychex | -1.84%-2.2 to +2.8 | Medium | -1.43% | 47% | -6.65% | -18% · +14% | 17 |
| 10 | BAX Baxter International | -8.56%-12.0 to -2.3 | Medium | -3.63% | 31% | -10.03% | -28% · +49% | 13 |
| 11 | DIS Walt Disney Company … | -3.21%-7.9 to -1.4 | Medium | -4.98% | 27% | -6.54% | -31% · +21% | 15 |
| 12 | LYB LyondellBasell | -4.70%-6.7 to -2.7 | Medium | -4.09% | 27% | -10.87% | -22% · +18% | 11 |
| 13 | CHTR Charter Communications | -10.88%-17.8 to -5.9 | Medium | -9.74% | 20% | -14.21% | -27% · +11% | 10 |
| 14 | MTD Mettler Toledo | -7.16%-10.4 to +0.2 | Medium | -2.97% | 35% | -3.74% | -25% · +27% | 17 |
| 15 | KR Kroger | -3.43%-3.9 to +1.4 | Medium | +1.65% | 41% | -3.17% | -13% · +33% | 17 |
| 16 | IFF International Flavors & … | -2.91%-5.6 to +0.3 | Medium | -1.94% | 43% | -6.13% | -19% · +18% | 14 |
| 17 | ZTS Zoetis | -1.92%-5.2 to -0.3 | Medium | -5.78% | 31% | -7.51% | -40% · +8% | 13 |
| 18 | PG Procter & Gamble | -0.09%-2.0 to +1.8 | Medium | +1.27% | 47% | -3.00% | -13% · +16% | 17 |
| 19 | AVY Avery Dennison | -1.94%-5.4 to +1.0 | Medium | -1.79% | 36% | -1.37% | -13% · +12% | 11 |
| 20 | EW Edwards Lifesciences | -1.32%-3.4 to +1.2 | Medium | -2.21% | 38% | -5.11% | -26% · +18% | 13 |
| 21 | TEL TE Connectivity | -3.61%-6.0 to -2.1 | Medium | +2.58% | 37% | -3.70% | -18% · +52% | 19 |
| 22 | CDW CDW Corporation | -5.97%-13.2 to -0.2 | Medium | -3.98% | 36% | -0.56% | -21% · +17% | 14 |
| 23 | SYK Stryker Corporation | -0.29%-2.1 to +1.5 | Medium | +0.09% | 50% | -2.88% | -20% · +23% | 14 |
| 24 | BX Blackstone Inc. | -4.11%-8.6 to +0.7 | Medium | -1.33% | 41% | -3.90% | -24% · +29% | 17 |
| 25 | EXR Extra Space Storage | -2.43%-4.7 to +2.3 | Medium | +0.88% | 46% | -1.48% | -8% · +22% | 13 |
Stocks with at least 3 independent periods, ordered on an evidence-weighted median: each stock's median is pulled toward the S&P 500 typical value in proportion to its uncertainty, so a lucky handful of events cannot top the list. Confidence counts independent holding periods (overlapping ones count once): High 20+, Medium 8+, Low 3+. Median and average gain over the next quarter from the entry close; Up = share of events followed by a gain; vs SPY = median gain minus SPY over the same sessions. Ranks on the stock pages place each stock among the S&P 500 stocks. Small samples are noisy, and the past does not repeat on schedule. Not advice.