Aftermath
After a 52-week high, over the next month
A new 52-week closing high. Each stock's median gain after its own events of this kind in the past 5 years, from the close of the session the event was known. Updated .
The typical S&P 500 stock gained +0.69% over the next month after a 52-week high (half of them between -0.93% and +2.43%), against +0.86% on any day.
Latest new 52-week highs, last few sessions
| Entry | Stock | Its median, 1 month | Confidence | Rank | Up | Events | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 2 | JCI Johnson Controls | +3.0% on the day | +0.12% | Medium | #277 of 480 | 54% | 13 |
| Oct 2 | LITE Lumentum | +3.8% on the day | +16.87% | Medium | #93 of 480 | 83% | 12 |
| Oct 1 | KEYS Keysight Technologies | +2.7% on the day | +4.15% | Medium | #125 of 480 | 70% | 10 |
| Sep 30 | PANW Palo Alto Networks | +2.3% on the day | +3.71% | Medium | #178 of 480 | 58% | 12 |
| Sep 29 | NTAP NetApp | +2.3% on the day | +1.40% | Medium | #192 of 480 | 62% | 8 |
| Sep 28 | ABBV AbbVie | +0.7% on the day | +2.19% | Medium | #161 of 480 | 55% | 11 |
Best after a 52-week high
| # | Stock | Median (likely range) | Confidence | Average | Up | vs SPY | Worst · best | Events |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SPY meme | +2.77%+0.9 to +3.0 | High | +1.95% | 75% | 0.00% | -3% · +7% | 20 |
| 2 | LEN Lennar | +4.43%+2.1 to +5.2 | Medium | +3.44% | 78% | +0.46% | -4% · +10% | 9 |
| 3 | TPL Texas Pacific Land … | +9.85%+6.8 to +15.0 | Medium | +11.32% | 100% | +8.55% | +4% · +21% | 8 |
| 4 | BNY BNY Mellon | +2.95%+1.9 to +4.5 | High | +3.03% | 74% | +1.63% | -6% · +9% | 23 |
| 5 | GWW W. W. Grainger | +3.58%+2.1 to +3.9 | Medium | +2.91% | 71% | +0.75% | -8% · +13% | 14 |
| 6 | NVR NVR, Inc. | +4.55%+0.8 to +5.3 | Medium | +3.43% | 90% | +1.10% | -10% · +9% | 10 |
| 7 | PH Parker Hannifin | +2.89%+1.7 to +5.3 | High | +2.58% | 80% | +1.30% | -14% · +12% | 20 |
| 8 | FICO Fair Isaac | +6.05%+1.9 to +8.2 | Medium | +4.65% | 72% | +4.14% | -11% · +16% | 18 |
| 9 | VRT Vertiv | +14.15%+6.1 to +17.5 | Medium | +11.67% | 88% | +10.31% | -27% · +41% | 17 |
| 10 | BAC Bank of America | +2.97%+0.9 to +3.6 | Medium | +1.00% | 85% | -1.16% | -16% · +8% | 13 |
| 11 | PWR Quanta Services | +2.46%+1.2 to +4.1 | High | +2.71% | 73% | +1.72% | -21% · +28% | 22 |
| 12 | FLEX Flex Ltd. | +3.55%0.0 to +4.3 | High | +4.32% | 62% | +1.81% | -31% · +82% | 21 |
| 13 | HCA HCA Healthcare | +2.41%+0.3 to +3.2 | Medium | +1.54% | 75% | +0.90% | -11% · +11% | 12 |
| 14 | LRCX Lam Research | +5.66%+4.5 to +7.7 | Medium | +6.10% | 69% | +2.37% | -17% · +31% | 16 |
| 15 | TSM meme | +5.12%+1.7 to +7.3 | Medium | +3.17% | 75% | +3.51% | -16% · +19% | 16 |
| 16 | CINF Cincinnati Financial | +3.87%-0.4 to +4.2 | Medium | +2.01% | 67% | +1.41% | -2% · +6% | 9 |
| 17 | STX Seagate Technology | +5.21%+2.4 to +7.8 | Medium | +8.62% | 68% | +2.85% | -27% · +70% | 19 |
| 18 | RSG Republic Services | +2.05%+0.9 to +2.9 | Medium | +1.60% | 73% | -1.07% | -8% · +10% | 15 |
| 19 | FTNT Fortinet | +5.36%+1.6 to +7.3 | Medium | +7.20% | 80% | +3.15% | -8% · +32% | 10 |
| 20 | NEM Newmont | +5.55%+0.9 to +5.7 | Medium | +3.40% | 75% | +3.70% | -27% · +20% | 12 |
| 21 | AMAT Applied Materials | +6.80%-0.3 to +9.2 | Medium | +4.48% | 63% | +2.25% | -10% · +13% | 19 |
| 22 | TDG TransDigm Group | +3.92%-0.7 to +4.7 | Medium | +1.88% | 65% | +0.12% | -14% · +9% | 17 |
| 23 | DECK Deckers Brands | +5.01%+1.5 to +8.3 | Medium | +3.03% | 85% | +1.61% | -30% · +18% | 13 |
| 24 | GE GE Aerospace | +3.09%-0.5 to +4.2 | High | +2.62% | 58% | +0.64% | -13% · +17% | 26 |
| 25 | STT State Street Corporation | +2.99%+1.8 to +6.6 | Medium | +3.21% | 71% | +1.07% | -7% · +13% | 17 |
Worst after a 52-week high
| # | Stock | Median (likely range) | Confidence | Average | Up | vs SPY | Worst · best | Events |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | KR Kroger | -1.93%-2.3 to -0.8 | Medium | -1.01% | 9% | -1.71% | -8% · +15% | 11 |
| 2 | MSCI MSCI | -4.76%-8.0 to -4.3 | Low | -5.76% | 0% | -6.54% | -11% · -3% | 7 |
| 3 | MCD McDonald's | -2.46%-2.7 to -1.1 | Medium | -1.16% | 27% | -2.99% | -7% · +7% | 11 |
| 4 | TLT meme | -2.16%-4.1 to -2.0 | Low | -2.17% | 0% | -3.94% | -4% · 0% | 4 |
| 5 | GRMN Garmin | -1.19%-1.8 to -0.2 | Medium | -1.22% | 35% | -2.45% | -13% · +11% | 17 |
| 6 | NSC Norfolk Southern | -0.93%-2.4 to -0.3 | Medium | -1.39% | 25% | -2.22% | -10% · +2% | 12 |
| 7 | REGN Regeneron Pharmaceuticals | -0.29%-1.2 to +0.1 | Medium | +0.08% | 43% | -0.93% | -5% · +6% | 14 |
| 8 | PTC PTC Inc. | -1.52%-3.7 to -0.3 | Medium | -1.52% | 23% | -3.11% | -8% · +9% | 13 |
| 9 | YUM Yum! Brands | -3.53%-4.0 to -3.4 | Medium | -0.77% | 38% | +1.18% | -9% · +10% | 8 |
| 10 | ROL Rollins, Inc. | -1.96%-3.5 to +0.8 | Medium | -1.28% | 47% | -3.89% | -5% · +4% | 17 |
| 11 | AFL Aflac | -1.52%-2.3 to +1.7 | Medium | -0.09% | 37% | -1.85% | -6% · +14% | 19 |
| 12 | IWM meme | -1.34%-2.2 to -0.4 | Medium | -0.69% | 36% | -1.53% | -7% · +6% | 14 |
| 13 | HBAN Huntington Bancshares | -2.74%-5.5 to -1.3 | Medium | -1.49% | 12% | -3.14% | -10% · +15% | 8 |
| 14 | ZBRA Zebra Technologies | -3.90%-6.0 to -3.0 | Medium | -4.44% | 25% | -3.35% | -23% · +5% | 8 |
| 15 | PG Procter & Gamble | -0.98%-1.8 to +0.9 | Medium | -0.60% | 38% | -1.51% | -4% · +3% | 8 |
| 16 | BIIB Biogen | -2.46%-4.7 to +0.6 | Medium | -1.23% | 38% | -2.07% | -6% · +9% | 8 |
| 17 | NWS News Corp (Class … | -1.79%-3.6 to -0.1 | Medium | -0.76% | 33% | -2.11% | -11% · +9% | 12 |
| 18 | WM Waste Management | -2.31%-4.1 to -0.2 | Medium | -0.77% | 27% | +0.28% | -6% · +10% | 11 |
| 19 | INVH Invitation Homes | -1.08%-1.7 to -0.4 | Low | -1.39% | 20% | -2.79% | -5% · +1% | 5 |
| 20 | PNW Pinnacle West Capital | -1.16%-1.7 to +1.2 | Medium | -0.45% | 47% | -1.62% | -6% · +5% | 15 |
| 21 | AWK American Water Works | -5.65%-8.1 to -0.4 | Low | -4.73% | 0% | -4.23% | -8% · 0% | 3 |
| 22 | ZTS Zoetis | -8.64%-9.7 to -3.1 | Low | -7.82% | 0% | -5.47% | -15% · -2% | 5 |
| 23 | STE Steris | -1.59%-3.2 to -0.4 | Medium | -2.64% | 25% | -3.86% | -8% · +1% | 8 |
| 24 | SBUX Starbucks | -5.11%-8.5 to -4.4 | Medium | -4.30% | 25% | -6.46% | -12% · +7% | 8 |
| 25 | MTD Mettler Toledo | -4.56%-6.6 to -3.6 | Low | -5.54% | 20% | -7.37% | -14% · +1% | 5 |
Stocks with at least 3 independent periods, ordered on an evidence-weighted median: each stock's median is pulled toward the S&P 500 typical value in proportion to its uncertainty, so a lucky handful of events cannot top the list. Confidence counts independent holding periods (overlapping ones count once): High 20+, Medium 8+, Low 3+. Median and average gain over the next month from the entry close; Up = share of events followed by a gain; vs SPY = median gain minus SPY over the same sessions. Ranks on the stock pages place each stock among the S&P 500 stocks. Small samples are noisy, and the past does not repeat on schedule. Not advice.