Aftermath
After a 52-week high, over the next quarter
A new 52-week closing high. Each stock's median gain after its own events of this kind in the past 5 years, from the close of the session the event was known. Updated .
The typical S&P 500 stock gained +1.77% over the next quarter after a 52-week high (half of them between -2.02% and +6.16%), against +2.15% on any day.
Latest new 52-week highs, last few sessions
| Entry | Stock | Its median, 1 quarter | Confidence | Rank | Up | Events | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 2 | JCI Johnson Controls | +3.0% on the day | +2.74% | Medium | #110 of 455 | 83% | 12 |
| Oct 2 | LITE Lumentum | +3.8% on the day | +44.07% | Low | #177 of 455 | 83% | 12 |
| Oct 1 | KEYS Keysight Technologies | +2.7% on the day | +5.37% | Low | #197 of 455 | 60% | 10 |
| Sep 30 | PANW Palo Alto Networks | +2.3% on the day | -1.00% | Low | #252 of 455 | 45% | 11 |
| Sep 29 | NTAP NetApp | +2.3% on the day | +14.90% | Low | #53 of 455 | 71% | 7 |
| Sep 28 | ABBV AbbVie | +0.7% on the day | -5.98% | Low | #401 of 455 | 40% | 10 |
Best after a 52-week high
| # | Stock | Median (likely range) | Confidence | Average | Up | vs SPY | Worst · best | Events |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | BNY BNY Mellon | +8.62%+5.6 to +11.1 | Medium | +8.85% | 86% | +4.08% | -7% · +21% | 22 |
| 2 | HWM Howmet Aerospace | +9.23%+7.0 to +11.0 | Medium | +10.34% | 92% | +8.07% | -18% · +31% | 25 |
| 3 | FOXA Fox Corporation (Class … | +16.49%+10.5 to +16.8 | Low | +12.14% | 82% | +12.40% | -12% · +24% | 11 |
| 4 | FOX Fox Corporation (Class … | +14.25%+11.0 to +17.8 | Low | +11.56% | 82% | +10.30% | -12% · +26% | 11 |
| 5 | GDDY GoDaddy | +13.02%+10.3 to +14.9 | Low | +11.18% | 83% | +8.30% | -15% · +28% | 12 |
| 6 | LII Lennox International | +9.96%+7.0 to +13.3 | Medium | +10.78% | 93% | +3.44% | -11% · +30% | 15 |
| 7 | PGR Progressive Corporation | +9.02%+0.8 to +10.3 | Medium | +7.77% | 81% | +1.25% | -10% · +25% | 16 |
| 8 | ANET Arista Networks | +8.10%+6.8 to +10.9 | Medium | +4.19% | 78% | +3.76% | -44% · +31% | 18 |
| 9 | SPY meme | +4.03%+3.0 to +4.7 | Medium | +3.41% | 84% | 0.00% | -11% · +13% | 19 |
| 10 | L Loews Corporation | +4.94%+3.0 to +7.0 | Medium | +4.26% | 84% | -0.43% | -7% · +10% | 19 |
| 11 | EBAY eBay Inc. | +10.76%+3.2 to +12.3 | Low | +9.48% | 73% | +5.49% | -10% · +38% | 11 |
| 12 | TSM meme | +7.35%+4.7 to +9.7 | Medium | +6.20% | 69% | +4.29% | -19% · +24% | 16 |
| 13 | FICO Fair Isaac | +14.10%+9.3 to +19.3 | Medium | +13.59% | 83% | +8.37% | -22% · +36% | 18 |
| 14 | PWR Quanta Services | +11.05%+3.2 to +13.2 | Medium | +6.95% | 77% | +3.36% | -27% · +31% | 22 |
| 15 | NTRS Northern Trust | +7.52%+2.9 to +8.8 | Medium | +6.59% | 83% | +3.32% | -17% · +23% | 12 |
| 16 | STT State Street Corporation | +8.30%+4.3 to +10.7 | Medium | +7.62% | 88% | +3.17% | -18% · +33% | 16 |
| 17 | EVRG Evergy | +6.23%+1.8 to +6.8 | Low | +3.81% | 77% | -2.01% | -10% · +10% | 13 |
| 18 | HST Host Hotels & … | +11.36%+4.4 to +11.7 | Low | +9.01% | 88% | +5.04% | -10% · +20% | 8 |
| 19 | WELL Welltower | +6.95%+2.3 to +8.2 | Medium | +8.01% | 85% | +1.97% | -3% · +21% | 20 |
| 20 | CASY Casey's | +8.63%+3.1 to +10.5 | Medium | +8.51% | 88% | +1.26% | -31% · +32% | 25 |
| 21 | TRGP Targa Resources | +13.86%+5.9 to +15.3 | Medium | +11.65% | 76% | +7.51% | -18% · +40% | 17 |
| 22 | AXP American Express | +6.81%+1.8 to +8.5 | Medium | +5.09% | 86% | +3.49% | -20% · +23% | 14 |
| 23 | GE GE Aerospace | +11.98%+2.3 to +14.4 | Medium | +11.71% | 76% | +6.29% | -13% · +44% | 25 |
| 24 | CTAS Cintas | +7.97%+3.9 to +10.1 | Medium | +5.67% | 76% | +4.57% | -9% · +18% | 17 |
| 25 | KKR KKR & Co. | +11.47%+5.8 to +14.5 | Low | +10.93% | 86% | +6.91% | -31% · +45% | 14 |
Worst after a 52-week high
| # | Stock | Median (likely range) | Confidence | Average | Up | vs SPY | Worst · best | Events |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | BALL Ball Corporation | -7.00%-9.1 to -6.7 | Low | -2.08% | 25% | -11.86% | -9% · +15% | 4 |
| 2 | TLT meme | -4.79%-5.1 to -2.8 | Low | -4.43% | 0% | -13.68% | -5% · -3% | 4 |
| 3 | SYY Sysco | -9.38%-11.9 to -7.5 | Low | -9.01% | 17% | -12.28% | -16% · 0% | 6 |
| 4 | ZTS Zoetis | -12.38%-14.3 to -8.0 | Low | -9.98% | 0% | -12.40% | -14% · -3% | 5 |
| 5 | NOC Northrop Grumman | -4.19%-5.0 to -1.3 | Low | -3.87% | 27% | -9.64% | -23% · +7% | 11 |
| 6 | TXT Textron | -2.80%-3.1 to +1.3 | Low | -0.22% | 33% | -5.62% | -11% · +19% | 9 |
| 7 | EXC Exelon | -7.32%-7.5 to -2.8 | Low | -2.84% | 29% | -10.68% | -10% · +15% | 7 |
| 8 | LYB LyondellBasell | -7.33%-13.7 to -7.3 | Low | -6.92% | 0% | -6.27% | -14% · -2% | 5 |
| 9 | MCHP Microchip Technology | -5.58%-7.1 to -5.0 | Medium | -4.43% | 33% | -5.35% | -27% · +20% | 9 |
| 10 | UPST meme | -33.73%-42.2 to -27.8 | Low | -23.43% | 25% | -29.13% | -42% · +16% | 4 |
| 11 | ITW Illinois Tool Works | -6.11%-8.2 to -3.5 | Low | -5.85% | 12% | -8.00% | -13% · +2% | 8 |
| 12 | FDS FactSet | -9.44%-12.8 to -5.2 | Low | -10.05% | 0% | -15.46% | -16% · -5% | 4 |
| 13 | STZ Constellation Brands | -10.95%-12.8 to -2.9 | Low | -8.88% | 0% | -8.01% | -13% · -3% | 3 |
| 14 | O Realty Income | -5.99%-12.6 to -6.0 | Low | -2.29% | 40% | -14.46% | -13% · +9% | 5 |
| 15 | HBAN Huntington Bancshares | -7.15%-8.4 to -2.8 | Low | -3.78% | 25% | -10.71% | -14% · +10% | 8 |
| 16 | J Jacobs Solutions | -4.82%-6.3 to -2.0 | Low | -3.77% | 25% | -9.01% | -13% · +6% | 8 |
| 17 | GIS General Mills | -7.67%-12.4 to -6.1 | Low | -9.90% | 0% | -14.19% | -20% · -3% | 5 |
| 18 | MKC McCormick & Company | -12.81%-12.9 to -3.0 | Low | -9.55% | 0% | -13.76% | -13% · -3% | 3 |
| 19 | OXY Occidental Petroleum | -11.31%-15.7 to -6.9 | Low | -6.01% | 25% | -18.67% | -16% · +15% | 4 |
| 20 | MAS Masco | -9.92%-12.3 to -2.4 | Low | -5.26% | 22% | -13.18% | -20% · +24% | 9 |
| 21 | LH Labcorp | -1.57%-2.2 to -0.9 | Low | -1.22% | 33% | -3.99% | -9% · +6% | 9 |
| 22 | STE Steris | -3.59%-5.6 to -0.8 | Low | -4.56% | 12% | -9.53% | -16% · +3% | 8 |
| 23 | CF CF Industries | -12.79%-14.1 to -12.3 | Low | -9.13% | 17% | -14.97% | -24% · +9% | 6 |
| 24 | ODFL Old Dominion | -9.37%-12.2 to -3.7 | Low | -6.79% | 22% | -11.01% | -19% · +8% | 9 |
| 25 | EMR Emerson Electric | -3.20%-9.9 to -2.3 | Medium | -4.30% | 20% | -6.86% | -16% · +9% | 10 |
Stocks with at least 3 independent periods, ordered on an evidence-weighted median: each stock's median is pulled toward the S&P 500 typical value in proportion to its uncertainty, so a lucky handful of events cannot top the list. Confidence counts independent holding periods (overlapping ones count once): High 20+, Medium 8+, Low 3+. Median and average gain over the next quarter from the entry close; Up = share of events followed by a gain; vs SPY = median gain minus SPY over the same sessions. Ranks on the stock pages place each stock among the S&P 500 stocks. Small samples are noisy, and the past does not repeat on schedule. Not advice.