Aftermath
After a 52-week low, over the next month
A new 52-week closing low. Each stock's median gain after its own events of this kind in the past 5 years, from the close of the session the event was known. Updated .
The typical S&P 500 stock gained +2.30% over the next month after a 52-week low (half of them between -0.70% and +5.76%), against +0.86% on any day.
Latest new 52-week lows, last few sessions
| Entry | Stock | Its median, 1 month | Confidence | Rank | Up | Events | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 2 | BSX Boston Scientific | -1.5% on the day | -9.62% | Low | #260 of 260 | 0% | 5 |
| Oct 2 | LOW Lowe's | -0.9% on the day | +5.99% | Low | #74 of 260 | 67% | 3 |
| Oct 2 | NFLX Netflix | -1.2% on the day | — | — | |||
| Oct 1 | CTVA Corteva | -83.8% on the day | — | — | |||
| Oct 1 | MGM MGM Resorts | -1.9% on the day | +2.26% | Low | #126 of 260 | 50% | 4 |
| Oct 1 | MKC McCormick & Company | -4.9% on the day | -0.07% | Medium | #224 of 260 | 50% | 8 |
| Oct 1 | PNR Pentair | -0.2% on the day | +4.40% | Low | #106 of 260 | 60% | 5 |
| Sep 30 | APP AppLovin | -5.0% on the day | -13.38% | Low | #202 of 260 | 25% | 4 |
| Sep 30 | CAPS | -12.5% on the day | -11.11% | Medium | #248 of 260 | 11% | 18 |
| Sep 30 | EQT EQT Corporation | -0.7% on the day | — | — | |||
| Sep 30 | MCD McDonald's | -1.3% on the day | +0.32% | Low | #184 of 260 | 50% | 4 |
| Sep 30 | NOC Northrop Grumman | -4.2% on the day | +4.50% | Low | #64 of 260 | 67% | 3 |
| Sep 30 | WEC WEC Energy Group | -1.8% on the day | — | — | |||
| Sep 29 | CPRT Copart | -0.3% on the day | -3.10% | Medium | #248 of 260 | 30% | 10 |
| Sep 29 | LVS Las Vegas Sands | -1.2% on the day | -1.25% | Low | #222 of 260 | 40% | 5 |
| Sep 29 | SBAC SBA Communications | -0.4% on the day | +2.80% | Medium | #93 of 260 | 70% | 10 |
| Sep 29 | WYNN Wynn Resorts | -2.8% on the day | +0.78% | Low | #148 of 260 | 50% | 4 |
| Sep 28 | CNP CenterPoint Energy | -0.6% on the day | — | — | |||
| Sep 28 | CSGP CoStar Group | -3.8% on the day | -0.89% | Medium | #231 of 260 | 33% | 9 |
| Sep 28 | EXE Expand Energy | -1.8% on the day | +0.47% | Low | #183 of 260 | 67% | 3 |
| Sep 28 | TTD | -2.1% on the day | -3.86% | Medium | #231 of 260 | 42% | 12 |
Best after a 52-week low
| # | Stock | Median (likely range) | Confidence | Average | Up | vs SPY | Worst · best | Events |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SHW Sherwin-Williams | +8.55%+7.7 to +10.8 | Low | +9.03% | 100% | +3.97% | +8% · +11% | 3 |
| 2 | ORLY O'Reilly Automotive | +7.46%+6.0 to +9.0 | Low | +7.49% | 100% | +6.34% | +6% · +9% | 3 |
| 3 | TTWO Take-Two Interactive | +9.10%+7.7 to +12.3 | Low | +9.70% | 100% | +3.99% | +8% · +12% | 3 |
| 4 | PANW Palo Alto Networks | +12.63%+11.4 to +17.2 | Low | +13.75% | 100% | +12.57% | +11% · +17% | 3 |
| 5 | BKNG Booking Holdings | +13.33%+7.5 to +14.1 | Low | +11.67% | 100% | +9.56% | +8% · +14% | 3 |
| 6 | SWKS Skyworks Solutions | +10.62%+5.6 to +11.0 | Low | +10.85% | 100% | +10.29% | +6% · +17% | 4 |
| 7 | BBY Best Buy | +11.43%+8.7 to +14.0 | Low | +11.83% | 100% | +3.85% | +9% · +16% | 4 |
| 8 | DXCM Dexcom | +15.57%+10.7 to +16.0 | Low | +17.93% | 100% | +12.86% | +11% · +30% | 4 |
| 9 | PLD Prologis | +8.54%+6.4 to +13.4 | Low | +9.45% | 100% | +3.81% | +6% · +13% | 3 |
| 10 | AKAM Akamai Technologies | +8.54%+5.0 to +9.2 | Low | +7.23% | 83% | +5.03% | -3% · +12% | 6 |
| 11 | EG Everest Group | +3.87%+2.3 to +4.8 | Low | +3.66% | 100% | +3.41% | +2% · +5% | 3 |
| 12 | FCX Freeport-McMoRan | +7.32%+4.4 to +12.0 | Low | +7.89% | 100% | +7.63% | +4% · +12% | 3 |
| 13 | APD Air Products | +9.05%+3.0 to +11.5 | Low | +8.14% | 100% | +7.28% | +3% · +12% | 4 |
| 14 | AON Aon plc | +6.44%+2.1 to +6.6 | Low | +4.04% | 80% | +4.65% | -2% · +7% | 5 |
| 15 | CSCO Cisco | +10.94%+1.7 to +11.1 | Low | +7.90% | 100% | +4.60% | +2% · +11% | 3 |
| 16 | F Ford Motor Company | +11.07%+5.7 to +18.3 | Low | +11.70% | 100% | +4.48% | +6% · +18% | 3 |
| 17 | VMRK Vivmark Residential | +4.82%+2.9 to +8.0 | Low | +4.67% | 86% | -0.27% | -5% · +10% | 7 |
| 18 | ADSK Autodesk | +8.07%+0.2 to +9.5 | Low | +5.92% | 100% | -0.74% | 0% · +10% | 3 |
| 19 | HSIC Henry Schein | +12.51%+2.2 to +15.2 | Low | +11.22% | 100% | +1.49% | +2% · +18% | 4 |
| 20 | TPL Texas Pacific Land … | +14.92%+2.9 to +17.0 | Low | +11.59% | 100% | +10.86% | +3% · +17% | 3 |
| 21 | DPZ Domino's | +8.27%-0.2 to +8.8 | Medium | +5.04% | 62% | +2.89% | -7% · +14% | 8 |
| 22 | IP International Paper | +5.11%+2.7 to +6.4 | Low | +3.45% | 80% | +0.79% | -5% · +8% | 5 |
| 23 | MRK Merck & Co. | +4.73%+3.6 to +7.1 | Low | +4.36% | 80% | +1.56% | -3% · +9% | 5 |
| 24 | PTC PTC Inc. | +5.69%-0.1 to +7.9 | Low | +5.15% | 75% | +2.10% | 0% · +9% | 4 |
| 25 | CI Cigna | +10.71%+0.6 to +14.7 | Low | +8.65% | 100% | +10.65% | +1% · +15% | 3 |
Worst after a 52-week low
| # | Stock | Median (likely range) | Confidence | Average | Up | vs SPY | Worst · best | Events |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | BSX Boston Scientific | -9.62%-13.0 to -9.5 | Low | -10.94% | 0% | -11.79% | -13% · -9% | 5 |
| 2 | NTRS Northern Trust | -2.10%-2.8 to +0.7 | Low | -1.42% | 33% | -4.78% | -3% · +1% | 3 |
| 3 | BIIB Biogen | -6.06%-8.4 to -2.8 | Medium | -5.11% | 11% | -4.37% | -13% · +3% | 9 |
| 4 | ILMN Illumina, Inc. | -11.55%-16.0 to -9.8 | Low | -11.68% | 0% | -6.98% | -18% · -6% | 6 |
| 5 | IR Ingersoll Rand | -4.67%-5.8 to 0.0 | Low | -3.47% | 33% | +0.07% | -6% · 0% | 3 |
| 6 | UDR UDR, Inc. | -1.97%-2.5 to -1.9 | Low | -0.22% | 33% | -2.49% | -5% · +7% | 6 |
| 7 | ARE Alexandria Real Estate … | -2.82%-4.9 to 0.0 | Medium | -3.92% | 27% | -5.21% | -21% · +10% | 11 |
| 8 | NVR NVR, Inc. | -0.09%-1.7 to +0.7 | Low | +0.07% | 50% | -3.30% | -2% · +2% | 4 |
| 9 | GIS General Mills | -0.46%-1.2 to +1.8 | Medium | -0.63% | 47% | -1.08% | -13% · +11% | 15 |
| 10 | A Agilent Technologies | -1.68%-5.5 to -1.2 | Low | -2.34% | 0% | -2.87% | -6% · 0% | 4 |
| 11 | PFE Pfizer | -0.39%-1.9 to +2.2 | Medium | +1.09% | 44% | -1.78% | -4% · +14% | 9 |
| 12 | LDOS Leidos | -9.20%-12.9 to -2.7 | Low | -8.24% | 0% | -13.80% | -13% · -3% | 3 |
| 13 | CPRT Copart | -3.10%-6.9 to -0.8 | Medium | -0.67% | 30% | -6.12% | -8% · +25% | 10 |
| 14 | CAPS meme | -11.11%-17.4 to -3.3 | Medium | -10.88% | 11% | -11.21% | -60% · +17% | 18 |
| 15 | NIVF meme | -44.42%-49.3 to -30.8 | Medium | +7.84% | 12% | -43.26% | -71% · +679% | 16 |
| 16 | CPT Camden Property Trust | -1.52%-1.9 to -1.2 | Low | -0.39% | 29% | -2.13% | -4% · +6% | 7 |
| 17 | AES AES Corporation | -9.53%-12.5 to -4.2 | Low | -6.04% | 17% | -11.75% | -17% · +17% | 6 |
| 18 | ERIE Erie Indemnity | -0.86%-4.5 to +1.7 | Medium | +1.90% | 38% | -0.40% | -8% · +25% | 8 |
| 19 | WY Weyerhaeuser | -3.03%-3.4 to -2.7 | Low | +1.46% | 25% | -3.62% | -3% · +15% | 4 |
| 20 | D Dominion Energy | -3.04%-5.9 to +1.8 | Low | -2.74% | 33% | -2.44% | -10% · +4% | 6 |
| 21 | TLT meme | -1.63%-4.9 to +0.7 | Low | -1.11% | 50% | -1.97% | -5% · +4% | 4 |
| 22 | LULU Lululemon Athletica | -3.68%-10.2 to -0.5 | Medium | -4.51% | 25% | -7.36% | -19% · +4% | 8 |
| 23 | VBIO meme | -17.62%-29.5 to -16.9 | High | -14.91% | 25% | -23.13% | -63% · +73% | 24 |
| 24 | WTW Willis Towers Watson | +0.33%-0.1 to +4.4 | Low | +1.57% | 67% | +2.47% | 0% · +4% | 3 |
| 25 | LYB LyondellBasell | -4.65%-5.9 to -4.5 | Low | -2.66% | 33% | -5.50% | -15% · +9% | 6 |
Stocks with at least 3 independent periods, ordered on an evidence-weighted median: each stock's median is pulled toward the S&P 500 typical value in proportion to its uncertainty, so a lucky handful of events cannot top the list. Confidence counts independent holding periods (overlapping ones count once): High 20+, Medium 8+, Low 3+. Median and average gain over the next month from the entry close; Up = share of events followed by a gain; vs SPY = median gain minus SPY over the same sessions. Ranks on the stock pages place each stock among the S&P 500 stocks. Small samples are noisy, and the past does not repeat on schedule. Not advice.