Aftermath
After a 52-week low, over the next quarter
A new 52-week closing low. Each stock's median gain after its own events of this kind in the past 5 years, from the close of the session the event was known. Updated .
The typical S&P 500 stock gained +6.53% over the next quarter after a 52-week low (half of them between +0.09% and +12.84%), against +2.15% on any day.
Latest new 52-week lows, last few sessions
| Entry | Stock | Its median, 1 quarter | Confidence | Rank | Up | Events | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 2 | BSX Boston Scientific | -1.5% on the day | — | — | |||
| Oct 2 | LOW Lowe's | -0.9% on the day | — | — | |||
| Oct 2 | NFLX Netflix | -1.2% on the day | — | — | |||
| Oct 1 | CTVA Corteva | -83.8% on the day | — | — | |||
| Oct 1 | MGM MGM Resorts | -1.9% on the day | +2.88% | Low | #169 of 219 | 50% | 4 |
| Oct 1 | MKC McCormick & Company | -4.9% on the day | -0.29% | Low | #183 of 219 | 50% | 8 |
| Oct 1 | PNR Pentair | -0.2% on the day | — | — | |||
| Sep 30 | APP AppLovin | -5.0% on the day | — | — | |||
| Sep 30 | CAPS | -12.5% on the day | -24.03% | Medium | #218 of 219 | 12% | 16 |
| Sep 30 | EQT EQT Corporation | -0.7% on the day | — | — | |||
| Sep 30 | MCD McDonald's | -1.3% on the day | — | — | |||
| Sep 30 | NOC Northrop Grumman | -4.2% on the day | +7.49% | Low | #94 of 219 | 67% | 3 |
| Sep 30 | WEC WEC Energy Group | -1.8% on the day | — | — | |||
| Sep 29 | CPRT Copart | -0.3% on the day | -4.52% | Low | #212 of 219 | 11% | 9 |
| Sep 29 | LVS Las Vegas Sands | -1.2% on the day | +26.41% | Low | #47 of 219 | 67% | 3 |
| Sep 29 | SBAC SBA Communications | -0.4% on the day | +8.69% | Medium | #84 of 219 | 70% | 10 |
| Sep 29 | WYNN Wynn Resorts | -2.8% on the day | — | — | |||
| Sep 28 | CNP CenterPoint Energy | -0.6% on the day | — | — | |||
| Sep 28 | CSGP CoStar Group | -3.8% on the day | -22.33% | Low | #206 of 219 | 25% | 8 |
| Sep 28 | EXE Expand Energy | -1.8% on the day | — | — | |||
| Sep 28 | TTD | -2.1% on the day | -18.74% | Low | #204 of 219 | 20% | 10 |
Best after a 52-week low
| # | Stock | Median (likely range) | Confidence | Average | Up | vs SPY | Worst · best | Events |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | GNRC Generac | +22.19%+20.5 to +32.8 | Low | +12.69% | 80% | +12.28% | -40% · +33% | 5 |
| 2 | NSC Norfolk Southern | +25.86%+17.1 to +27.0 | Low | +21.74% | 100% | +9.79% | +10% · +28% | 5 |
| 3 | ABNB Airbnb | +28.44%+22.0 to +41.0 | Low | +30.47% | 100% | +10.42% | +22% · +41% | 3 |
| 4 | EIX Edison International | +18.19%+17.5 to +23.4 | Low | +15.31% | 100% | +10.85% | +1% · +23% | 4 |
| 5 | XYZ Block, Inc. | +44.80%+34.1 to +55.7 | Low | +43.70% | 100% | +38.52% | +20% · +64% | 5 |
| 6 | CSCO Cisco | +25.00%+9.8 to +25.3 | Low | +20.05% | 100% | +14.26% | +10% · +25% | 3 |
| 7 | ZBRA Zebra Technologies | +23.75%+11.0 to +25.3 | Low | +23.30% | 100% | +8.96% | +10% · +38% | 6 |
| 8 | TDY Teledyne Technologies | +15.53%+14.7 to +23.4 | Low | +17.85% | 100% | +7.80% | +15% · +23% | 3 |
| 9 | IP International Paper | +15.44%+9.9 to +16.6 | Low | +13.47% | 100% | +9.29% | +7% · +19% | 5 |
| 10 | DXCM Dexcom | +28.62%+17.0 to +34.2 | Low | +30.45% | 100% | +19.93% | +17% · +48% | 4 |
| 11 | HSIC Henry Schein | +19.91%+8.7 to +20.9 | Low | +19.36% | 100% | +0.94% | +9% · +29% | 4 |
| 12 | TROW T. Rowe Price | +18.36%+17.5 to +19.2 | Low | +14.56% | 75% | +1.91% | -4% · +26% | 4 |
| 13 | AWK American Water Works | +19.89%+8.2 to +24.9 | Low | +18.49% | 100% | +14.23% | +8% · +26% | 4 |
| 14 | BALL Ball Corporation | +20.46%+6.1 to +24.4 | Low | +11.92% | 80% | +8.72% | -13% · +24% | 5 |
| 15 | O Realty Income | +13.18%+10.6 to +20.0 | Low | +14.59% | 100% | +3.32% | +11% · +20% | 3 |
| 16 | BBY Best Buy | +28.96%+14.9 to +38.2 | Low | +31.44% | 100% | +15.49% | +15% · +53% | 4 |
| 17 | FOX Fox Corporation (Class … | +16.85%+6.9 to +24.0 | Low | +15.91% | 100% | +12.14% | +7% · +24% | 3 |
| 18 | SHW Sherwin-Williams | +16.92%+3.6 to +19.5 | Low | +13.34% | 100% | +8.42% | +4% · +19% | 3 |
| 19 | WAT Waters Corporation | +16.15%+8.4 to +25.7 | Low | +16.77% | 100% | +9.28% | +8% · +26% | 3 |
| 20 | PSA Public Storage | +15.77%+4.2 to +20.9 | Low | +13.61% | 100% | +7.50% | +4% · +21% | 3 |
| 21 | AKAM Akamai Technologies | +10.78%+9.4 to +13.9 | Low | +10.12% | 100% | +5.27% | 0% · +15% | 6 |
| 22 | FOXA Fox Corporation (Class … | +16.82%+5.6 to +27.0 | Low | +16.47% | 100% | +12.11% | +6% · +27% | 3 |
| 23 | ALGN Align Technology | +18.92%+2.2 to +22.0 | Low | +11.61% | 80% | +7.40% | -9% · +23% | 5 |
| 24 | PLD Prologis | +16.42%+9.8 to +29.3 | Low | +18.51% | 100% | +9.02% | +10% · +29% | 3 |
| 25 | LUV Southwest Airlines | +12.63%+6.2 to +12.9 | Low | +14.84% | 100% | +0.91% | +6% · +28% | 4 |
Worst after a 52-week low
| # | Stock | Median (likely range) | Confidence | Average | Up | vs SPY | Worst · best | Events |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | LULU Lululemon Athletica | -18.90%-20.3 to -18.5 | Low | -14.68% | 12% | -23.96% | -26% · +9% | 8 |
| 2 | D Dominion Energy | -6.61%-7.0 to -6.4 | Low | -5.15% | 17% | -10.70% | -9% · +4% | 6 |
| 3 | CAPS meme | -24.03%-30.0 to -14.1 | Medium | -21.60% | 12% | -34.21% | -62% · +7% | 16 |
| 4 | ERIE Erie Indemnity | -9.74%-12.0 to -5.8 | Low | -5.34% | 12% | -13.24% | -15% · +24% | 8 |
| 5 | DOW Dow Inc. | -12.78%-21.1 to -12.2 | Low | -15.11% | 0% | -15.67% | -22% · -7% | 5 |
| 6 | REGN Regeneron Pharmaceuticals | -10.71%-12.4 to -7.4 | Low | -9.97% | 20% | -9.42% | -23% · +4% | 5 |
| 7 | NIVF meme | -65.84%-80.1 to -61.0 | Medium | -38.84% | 14% | -73.83% | -93% · +264% | 14 |
| 8 | HAL Halliburton | -5.43%-8.4 to -4.8 | Low | -6.54% | 17% | -7.98% | -22% · +6% | 6 |
| 9 | GIS General Mills | -3.75%-6.2 to -1.4 | Low | -3.32% | 27% | -6.43% | -19% · +18% | 15 |
| 10 | CPRT Copart | -4.52%-10.5 to -2.0 | Low | -5.75% | 11% | -9.10% | -13% · 0% | 9 |
| 11 | ROP Roper Technologies | -8.71%-16.9 to -5.0 | Low | -10.04% | 20% | -13.61% | -22% · +3% | 5 |
| 12 | ELV Elevance Health | -1.87%-4.5 to +2.2 | Low | +1.00% | 40% | -3.38% | -9% · +18% | 5 |
| 13 | FDS FactSet | -14.75%-20.2 to -4.3 | Low | -16.22% | 0% | -19.03% | -31% · -4% | 4 |
| 14 | COP ConocoPhillips | +0.49%+0.4 to +0.5 | Low | +2.23% | 80% | -7.42% | -6% · +12% | 5 |
| 15 | NVR NVR, Inc. | -0.26%-4.6 to +1.3 | Low | +1.04% | 50% | -7.69% | -5% · +9% | 4 |
| 16 | CSGP CoStar Group | -22.33%-24.8 to -3.8 | Low | -14.38% | 25% | -24.98% | -33% · +13% | 8 |
| 17 | PFE Pfizer | -8.43%-10.0 to -4.4 | Low | -3.68% | 22% | -12.81% | -14% · +19% | 9 |
| 18 | LEN Lennar | -5.93%-10.5 to +3.8 | Low | -3.80% | 33% | -11.38% | -12% · +8% | 6 |
| 19 | TTD meme | -18.74%-26.9 to -1.7 | Low | -10.18% | 20% | -24.76% | -35% · +50% | 10 |
| 20 | VBIO meme | -44.19%-66.8 to -29.3 | Medium | -40.89% | 13% | -54.88% | -82% · +20% | 23 |
| 21 | LYB LyondellBasell | -6.38%-15.7 to -2.8 | Low | -6.82% | 17% | -12.65% | -20% · +10% | 6 |
| 22 | EL Estée Lauder Companies … | -4.62%-7.4 to +1.2 | Low | -0.28% | 30% | -10.53% | -25% · +48% | 10 |
| 23 | INVH Invitation Homes | -2.10%-7.2 to +5.1 | Low | -0.74% | 29% | -3.50% | -10% · +15% | 7 |
| 24 | OXY Occidental Petroleum | -2.21%-7.4 to -0.7 | Low | -0.25% | 20% | -10.19% | -7% · +13% | 5 |
| 25 | HTZ meme | -22.77%-30.3 to -15.0 | Low | -17.21% | 22% | -33.04% | -54% · +62% | 9 |
Stocks with at least 3 independent periods, ordered on an evidence-weighted median: each stock's median is pulled toward the S&P 500 typical value in proportion to its uncertainty, so a lucky handful of events cannot top the list. Confidence counts independent holding periods (overlapping ones count once): High 20+, Medium 8+, Low 3+. Median and average gain over the next quarter from the entry close; Up = share of events followed by a gain; vs SPY = median gain minus SPY over the same sessions. Ranks on the stock pages place each stock among the S&P 500 stocks. Small samples are noisy, and the past does not repeat on schedule. Not advice.