After an earnings miss, over the next day
EPS below the consensus; entry at the close of the session that first traded on it. Each stock's median gain after its own events of this kind in the past 5 years, from the close of the session the event was known. Updated .
The typical S&P 500 stock gained +0.06% over the next day after an earnings miss (half of them between -0.63% and +0.79%), against +0.06% on any day.
Latest earnings misses, last few sessions
Best after an earnings miss
| # | Stock | Median (likely range) | Confidence | Average | Up | vs SPY | Worst · best | Events |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | OXY Occidental Petroleum | +2.03%+1.9 to +2.1 | Low | +2.43% | 100% | +2.21% | +2% · +4% | 4 |
| 2 | FICO Fair Isaac | +2.17%+2.1 to +2.5 | Low | +2.34% | 100% | +1.97% | +1% · +4% | 5 |
| 3 | ABBV AbbVie | +1.59%+1.5 to +1.6 | Low | +2.08% | 100% | +1.28% | +2% · +4% | 4 |
| 4 | ESS Essex Property Trust | +0.79%+0.6 to +0.9 | Medium | +0.87% | 92% | +0.44% | -3% · +3% | 12 |
| 5 | GEV GE Vernova | +3.32%+3.2 to +4.7 | Low | +3.96% | 100% | +2.73% | +2% · +6% | 5 |
| 6 | ETR Entergy | +1.36%+1.0 to +2.0 | Low | +1.68% | 100% | +0.90% | +1% · +3% | 5 |
| 7 | MOS Mosaic Company (The) | +0.75%+0.2 to +1.0 | Medium | +0.42% | 78% | +0.08% | -6% · +5% | 18 |
| 8 | HII Huntington Ingalls Industries | +2.31%+0.4 to +2.3 | Low | +1.69% | 100% | +1.89% | 0% · +2% | 3 |
| 9 | FAST Fastenal | +0.82%0.0 to +1.0 | Low | +0.61% | 100% | +1.11% | 0% · +1% | 3 |
| 10 | XOM ExxonMobil | +1.39%+0.3 to +1.4 | Low | +1.51% | 100% | +0.91% | 0% · +3% | 4 |
| 11 | ES Eversource Energy | +1.02%+0.6 to +1.3 | Medium | +0.89% | 75% | +1.12% | -1% · +3% | 8 |
| 12 | TKO TKO Group Holdings | +0.91%0.0 to +1.0 | Low | +0.83% | 83% | +0.68% | 0% · +2% | 6 |
| 13 | FDX FedEx | +1.33%+0.5 to +1.5 | Low | +1.47% | 83% | +0.89% | -1% · +5% | 6 |
| 14 | EIX Edison International | +0.66%+0.4 to +1.5 | Low | +0.86% | 100% | -0.09% | 0% · +2% | 3 |
| 15 | TXT Textron | +1.06%0.0 to +1.9 | Low | +0.99% | 100% | +0.95% | 0% · +2% | 3 |
| 16 | BAX Baxter International | +2.69%+0.9 to +3.4 | Low | +3.02% | 100% | +2.47% | +1% · +6% | 4 |
| 17 | MAR Marriott International | +0.73%-0.2 to +1.3 | Low | +0.61% | 67% | -0.14% | 0% · +1% | 3 |
| 18 | KMB Kimberly-Clark | +1.34%+0.2 to +2.1 | Low | +1.32% | 100% | +1.44% | 0% · +2% | 4 |
| 19 | DOW Dow Inc. | +1.61%0.0 to +1.8 | Low | +1.89% | 100% | +1.28% | 0% · +4% | 4 |
| 20 | NSC Norfolk Southern | +0.51%-0.3 to +0.6 | Low | +0.41% | 67% | +0.09% | -1% · +2% | 6 |
| 21 | MAS Masco | +0.99%+0.2 to +2.0 | Low | +0.81% | 71% | +0.75% | -1% · +2% | 7 |
| 22 | SRE Sempra | +1.70%+0.3 to +3.1 | Low | +1.70% | 100% | +0.94% | 0% · +3% | 3 |
| 23 | WYNN Wynn Resorts | +1.49%-0.4 to +2.2 | Medium | +1.64% | 70% | +0.67% | -2% · +8% | 10 |
| 24 | MO Altria | +1.27%+0.1 to +2.1 | Low | +1.23% | 83% | +0.20% | -1% · +4% | 6 |
| 25 | MET MetLife | +0.97%+0.1 to +2.7 | Low | +1.35% | 100% | +0.52% | 0% · +3% | 6 |
Worst after an earnings miss
| # | Stock | Median (likely range) | Confidence | Average | Up | vs SPY | Worst · best | Events |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | PHM PulteGroup | -1.71%-2.4 to -1.7 | Low | -1.92% | 0% | -1.41% | -2% · -2% | 3 |
| 2 | TECH Bio-Techne | -3.29%-3.7 to -2.1 | Low | -2.96% | 0% | -1.86% | -4% · -2% | 5 |
| 3 | APLD meme | -7.20%-7.2 to -4.5 | Low | -6.29% | 0% | -5.94% | -7% · -4% | 3 |
| 4 | HD Home Depot (The) | -1.03%-1.6 to -0.7 | Low | -1.07% | 0% | -0.87% | -2% · -1% | 4 |
| 5 | BG Bunge Global | -2.05%-2.4 to -0.8 | Low | -1.76% | 0% | -1.18% | -2% · -1% | 3 |
| 6 | DRI Darden Restaurants | -1.96%-2.4 to -1.6 | Low | -2.27% | 0% | -2.45% | -4% · -1% | 5 |
| 7 | UNP Union Pacific Corporation | -1.51%-2.1 to -1.0 | Low | -0.99% | 14% | -1.73% | -2% · +2% | 7 |
| 8 | ROL Rollins, Inc. | -0.74%-1.1 to -0.5 | Low | -0.88% | 20% | -1.44% | -2% · 0% | 5 |
| 9 | CINF Cincinnati Financial | -0.35%-0.7 to +0.1 | Low | -0.34% | 33% | +0.83% | -1% · 0% | 3 |
| 10 | PPL PPL Corporation | -0.59%-1.3 to -0.1 | Medium | -0.65% | 22% | -0.94% | -3% · +3% | 9 |
| 11 | CAT Caterpillar Inc. | -0.95%-1.5 to -0.8 | Low | -0.47% | 25% | -0.67% | -1% · +2% | 4 |
| 12 | WM Waste Management | -1.48%-2.6 to -0.6 | Low | -1.71% | 0% | -2.15% | -3% · 0% | 7 |
| 13 | PRU Prudential Financial | -0.90%-2.3 to -0.5 | Medium | -1.32% | 11% | -0.82% | -4% · +2% | 9 |
| 14 | TTD meme | -6.76%-7.2 to -3.0 | Low | -5.63% | 0% | -6.61% | -7% · -3% | 3 |
| 15 | GNRC Generac | -4.28%-6.2 to -3.9 | Low | -4.17% | 17% | -3.62% | -8% · 0% | 6 |
| 16 | AMZN Amazon | -0.76%-1.2 to +0.2 | Low | -0.61% | 40% | -0.56% | -2% · 0% | 5 |
| 17 | GLW Corning Inc. | -2.43%-3.3 to -0.3 | Low | -1.99% | 0% | -0.80% | -3% · 0% | 3 |
| 18 | CRH CRH plc | -1.03%-1.2 to 0.0 | Low | -0.69% | 40% | -1.75% | -2% · +1% | 5 |
| 19 | REG Regency Centers | -1.01%-2.5 to -0.6 | Low | -1.35% | 0% | -1.23% | -2% · -1% | 3 |
| 20 | FRT Federal Realty Investment … | -0.37%-1.4 to -0.2 | Medium | -0.62% | 22% | -0.79% | -2% · +1% | 9 |
| 21 | FE FirstEnergy | -1.02%-2.0 to -0.7 | Low | -0.66% | 33% | -1.30% | -2% · +1% | 6 |
| 22 | LHX L3Harris | -0.23%-0.9 to -0.1 | Low | -0.41% | 0% | -0.12% | -1% · 0% | 3 |
| 23 | LNT Alliant Energy | -0.64%-0.7 to -0.5 | Low | -1.02% | 14% | -0.38% | -3% · +1% | 7 |
| 24 | USB U.S. Bancorp | -0.83%-1.9 to +0.2 | Medium | -0.84% | 38% | -0.57% | -3% · +1% | 8 |
| 25 | ORLY O'Reilly Automotive | -0.43%-1.1 to -0.4 | Medium | -0.36% | 25% | -0.40% | -3% · +2% | 8 |
Stocks with at least 3 independent periods, ordered on an evidence-weighted median: each stock's median is pulled toward the S&P 500 typical value in proportion to its uncertainty, so a lucky handful of events cannot top the list. Confidence counts independent holding periods (overlapping ones count once): High 20+, Medium 8+, Low 3+. Median and average gain over the next day from the entry close; Up = share of events followed by a gain; vs SPY = median gain minus SPY over the same sessions. Ranks on the stock pages place each stock among the S&P 500 stocks. Small samples are noisy, and the past does not repeat on schedule. Not advice.