Aftermath
After an earnings miss, over the next month
EPS below the consensus; entry at the close of the session that first traded on it. Each stock's median gain after its own events of this kind in the past 5 years, from the close of the session the event was known. Updated .
The typical S&P 500 stock gained +0.72% over the next month after an earnings miss (half of them between -1.80% and +3.73%), against +0.86% on any day.
Latest earnings misses, last few sessions
No earnings misses in the last few sessions.
Best after an earnings miss
| # | Stock | Median (likely range) | Confidence | Average | Up | vs SPY | Worst · best | Events |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | EIX Edison International | +6.07%+5.9 to +8.2 | Low | +6.72% | 100% | +8.50% | +6% · +8% | 3 |
| 2 | TMUS T-Mobile US | +4.25%+1.5 to +4.4 | Low | +3.38% | 100% | -0.23% | +2% · +4% | 3 |
| 3 | NI NiSource | +4.63%+1.8 to +5.9 | Low | +4.09% | 100% | +8.47% | +2% · +6% | 3 |
| 4 | ACN Accenture | +6.49%+2.5 to +8.8 | Low | +5.90% | 100% | +3.57% | +2% · +9% | 3 |
| 5 | DLR Digital Realty | +3.48%+1.5 to +4.9 | Medium | +2.67% | 80% | +0.78% | -11% · +12% | 10 |
| 6 | PGR Progressive Corporation | +3.11%+1.4 to +4.0 | Medium | +2.44% | 78% | -2.51% | -3% · +6% | 9 |
| 7 | KMB Kimberly-Clark | +6.34%+3.0 to +8.3 | Low | +6.97% | 100% | +4.59% | +3% · +12% | 4 |
| 8 | TTWO Take-Two Interactive | +5.09%-0.1 to +6.9 | Medium | +3.71% | 67% | +3.96% | -1% · +8% | 9 |
| 9 | DELL Dell Technologies | +5.52%+2.8 to +9.4 | Low | +5.91% | 100% | +1.05% | +3% · +9% | 3 |
| 10 | AMP Ameriprise Financial | +13.79%+4.6 to +14.1 | Low | +10.83% | 100% | +8.79% | +5% · +14% | 3 |
| 11 | TXT Textron | +4.77%+4.4 to +9.7 | Low | +6.30% | 100% | +1.96% | +4% · +10% | 3 |
| 12 | FICO Fair Isaac | +8.58%+6.7 to +9.6 | Low | +8.62% | 80% | +5.78% | -1% · +19% | 5 |
| 13 | ES Eversource Energy | +4.04%+0.9 to +7.1 | Medium | +4.83% | 88% | +2.16% | -2% · +12% | 8 |
| 14 | SPG Simon Property Group | +5.08%+0.4 to +5.8 | Medium | +2.80% | 75% | +1.05% | -11% · +14% | 12 |
| 15 | MET MetLife | +6.22%+0.7 to +7.8 | Low | +5.13% | 83% | +3.38% | -2% · +12% | 6 |
| 16 | NTRS Northern Trust | +5.68%-1.2 to +8.7 | Low | +4.44% | 71% | +0.12% | -5% · +14% | 7 |
| 17 | WM Waste Management | +5.03%-2.8 to +6.4 | Low | +3.16% | 71% | +1.09% | -5% · +9% | 7 |
| 18 | RF Regions Financial Corporation | +6.98%+5.2 to +12.9 | Low | +7.12% | 83% | +6.77% | -5% · +15% | 6 |
| 19 | MTB M&T Bank | +10.02%+4.1 to +15.5 | Low | +9.91% | 100% | +6.28% | +3% · +17% | 5 |
| 20 | STX Seagate Technology | +3.73%-0.3 to +5.0 | Low | +4.05% | 75% | +2.29% | 0% · +9% | 4 |
| 21 | XEL Xcel Energy | +3.32%-0.8 to +4.6 | Medium | +2.02% | 67% | -0.22% | -8% · +10% | 9 |
| 22 | AEE Ameren | +2.10%+0.7 to +2.5 | Low | +2.51% | 83% | +2.63% | -1% · +5% | 6 |
| 23 | OKE Oneok | +6.17%-0.4 to +8.3 | Medium | +5.87% | 62% | +1.71% | -5% · +19% | 8 |
| 24 | AJG Arthur J. Gallagher … | +6.47%-2.1 to +8.3 | Low | +4.21% | 67% | +3.49% | -2% · +8% | 3 |
| 25 | BAC Bank of America | +12.20%-0.2 to +13.6 | Low | +8.54% | 67% | +1.08% | 0% · +14% | 3 |
Worst after an earnings miss
| # | Stock | Median (likely range) | Confidence | Average | Up | vs SPY | Worst · best | Events |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | RCL Royal Caribbean Group | -17.30%-22.8 to -14.6 | Low | -18.24% | 0% | -16.50% | -23% · -15% | 3 |
| 2 | GILD Gilead Sciences | -5.25%-7.2 to -4.5 | Low | -4.18% | 25% | -3.41% | -7% · +1% | 4 |
| 3 | FAST Fastenal | -2.02%-2.3 to -0.1 | Low | -1.47% | 0% | -2.85% | -2% · 0% | 3 |
| 4 | NDSN Nordson Corporation | -5.65%-6.3 to -2.0 | Low | -4.65% | 0% | -0.59% | -6% · -2% | 3 |
| 5 | COF Capital One | -4.31%-6.0 to -0.9 | Medium | -2.98% | 22% | -5.72% | -9% · +8% | 9 |
| 6 | AEO meme | -7.03%-9.6 to -6.0 | Low | -6.75% | 0% | -6.55% | -10% · -1% | 5 |
| 7 | RKLB meme | -20.26%-26.9 to -20.0 | Low | -19.46% | 0% | -15.37% | -27% · -10% | 4 |
| 8 | TROW T. Rowe Price | -3.73%-6.8 to -3.6 | Low | -4.24% | 17% | -4.60% | -9% · 0% | 6 |
| 9 | HBAN Huntington Bancshares | -3.17%-3.5 to +0.3 | Low | -2.10% | 33% | -2.66% | -3% · 0% | 3 |
| 10 | CLX Clorox | -2.64%-5.7 to -2.1 | Low | -3.49% | 0% | -0.63% | -6% · -2% | 3 |
| 11 | PNW Pinnacle West Capital | -2.83%-4.0 to -1.8 | Low | -1.26% | 33% | -3.97% | -4% · +5% | 6 |
| 12 | WBD Warner Bros. Discovery | -4.06%-6.1 to -1.7 | Medium | -2.42% | 29% | -3.65% | -13% · +22% | 14 |
| 13 | O Realty Income | -0.89%-1.3 to +0.2 | Medium | -0.87% | 47% | -1.69% | -8% · +4% | 15 |
| 14 | REG Regency Centers | +0.09%-0.4 to +0.2 | Low | -0.03% | 67% | +3.48% | 0% · 0% | 3 |
| 15 | MLM Martin Marietta Materials | -4.23%-5.9 to -0.8 | Low | -4.19% | 17% | -6.34% | -12% · +2% | 6 |
| 16 | EXC Exelon | -1.29%-3.6 to -0.8 | Low | -0.88% | 33% | -2.40% | -4% · +4% | 6 |
| 17 | TSN Tyson Foods | -3.44%-4.3 to 0.0 | Low | -2.56% | 20% | -1.23% | -7% · +2% | 5 |
| 18 | LHX L3Harris | -8.84%-9.6 to -0.4 | Low | -6.30% | 0% | -10.43% | -10% · 0% | 3 |
| 19 | LUV Southwest Airlines | -1.51%-2.3 to -0.8 | Medium | -0.61% | 25% | -2.94% | -6% · +8% | 8 |
| 20 | AMT American Tower | -2.57%-8.1 to -1.2 | Medium | -2.38% | 25% | -4.99% | -9% · +6% | 8 |
| 21 | UPS United Parcel Service | -1.45%-3.9 to +1.4 | Low | -1.32% | 33% | -3.24% | -4% · +1% | 3 |
| 22 | SYF Synchrony Financial | -4.25%-10.8 to -4.2 | Low | -5.27% | 0% | -5.29% | -11% · -2% | 4 |
| 23 | AEP American Electric Power | -2.14%-6.0 to -0.7 | Low | -2.42% | 33% | -2.94% | -7% · +2% | 6 |
| 24 | SPGI S&P Global | -1.86%-4.5 to -1.6 | Low | -1.31% | 33% | -0.85% | -8% · +5% | 6 |
| 25 | FDX FedEx | -3.56%-7.6 to -2.5 | Low | -2.93% | 33% | -2.74% | -10% · +6% | 6 |
Stocks with at least 3 independent periods, ordered on an evidence-weighted median: each stock's median is pulled toward the S&P 500 typical value in proportion to its uncertainty, so a lucky handful of events cannot top the list. Confidence counts independent holding periods (overlapping ones count once): High 20+, Medium 8+, Low 3+. Median and average gain over the next month from the entry close; Up = share of events followed by a gain; vs SPY = median gain minus SPY over the same sessions. Ranks on the stock pages place each stock among the S&P 500 stocks. Small samples are noisy, and the past does not repeat on schedule. Not advice.