Aftermath
After an earnings miss, over the next week
EPS below the consensus; entry at the close of the session that first traded on it. Each stock's median gain after its own events of this kind in the past 5 years, from the close of the session the event was known. Updated .
The typical S&P 500 stock gained +0.54% over the next week after an earnings miss (half of them between -0.91% and +1.93%), against +0.27% on any day.
Latest earnings misses, last few sessions
No earnings misses in the last few sessions.
Best after an earnings miss
| # | Stock | Median (likely range) | Confidence | Average | Up | vs SPY | Worst · best | Events |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | OXY Occidental Petroleum | +3.78%+2.4 to +3.9 | Low | +3.97% | 100% | +3.08% | +2% · +6% | 4 |
| 2 | EOG EOG Resources | +6.57%+3.8 to +7.0 | Low | +6.30% | 100% | +3.69% | +3% · +11% | 5 |
| 3 | MTB M&T Bank | +3.36%+2.2 to +4.5 | Low | +3.63% | 100% | +4.30% | +1% · +7% | 5 |
| 4 | HUBB Hubbell Incorporated | +3.25%+0.6 to +3.3 | Low | +3.24% | 100% | +1.05% | +1% · +6% | 4 |
| 5 | SPG Simon Property Group | +1.35%+0.1 to +1.4 | Medium | +1.70% | 75% | +0.20% | -2% · +7% | 12 |
| 6 | VMC Vulcan Materials Company | +2.72%-0.9 to +5.2 | Low | +2.45% | 71% | +2.68% | -1% · +5% | 7 |
| 7 | TMUS T-Mobile US | +1.98%-0.2 to +2.7 | Low | +1.50% | 67% | -1.36% | 0% · +3% | 3 |
| 8 | IVZ Invesco | +2.21%+1.1 to +3.8 | Low | +2.32% | 86% | +1.19% | -3% · +7% | 7 |
| 9 | BEN Franklin Resources | +2.75%+0.2 to +4.3 | Low | +2.42% | 100% | +0.44% | 0% · +4% | 3 |
| 10 | EG Everest Group | +2.91%+0.2 to +3.1 | Low | +1.74% | 80% | +1.73% | -2% · +4% | 5 |
| 11 | NI NiSource | +1.64%0.0 to +3.0 | Low | +1.56% | 67% | +3.07% | 0% · +3% | 3 |
| 12 | MET MetLife | +3.06%+2.3 to +3.2 | Low | +2.26% | 83% | +1.53% | -4% · +6% | 6 |
| 13 | BRK-B Berkshire Hathaway | +3.55%+0.4 to +4.0 | Low | +2.45% | 80% | +0.59% | -1% · +6% | 5 |
| 14 | NSC Norfolk Southern | +2.38%+1.3 to +2.9 | Low | +2.31% | 83% | +0.46% | -3% · +8% | 6 |
| 15 | CF CF Industries | +2.87%+0.6 to +5.6 | Low | +2.82% | 86% | +0.86% | -2% · +9% | 7 |
| 16 | INVH Invitation Homes | +1.41%+0.8 to +2.4 | Medium | +1.47% | 89% | +1.54% | -7% · +6% | 9 |
| 17 | EIX Edison International | +3.60%-0.7 to +4.2 | Low | +2.37% | 67% | +4.47% | -1% · +4% | 3 |
| 18 | ETR Entergy | +1.00%0.0 to +1.6 | Low | +0.76% | 80% | +0.09% | -1% · +2% | 5 |
| 19 | ACN Accenture | +4.05%-1.0 to +5.1 | Low | +2.71% | 67% | +1.37% | -1% · +5% | 3 |
| 20 | PPL PPL Corporation | +0.90%+0.3 to +1.6 | Medium | +0.65% | 78% | +0.64% | -4% · +4% | 9 |
| 21 | DAL Delta Air Lines | +5.83%+3.8 to +9.9 | Low | +5.99% | 80% | +5.98% | 0% · +11% | 5 |
| 22 | NWSA News Corp (Class … | +6.13%+1.8 to +10.8 | Low | +6.26% | 100% | +4.50% | +2% · +11% | 3 |
| 23 | PCG PG&E Corporation | +2.50%-1.6 to +3.7 | Low | +2.16% | 71% | +0.51% | -4% · +7% | 7 |
| 24 | SRE Sempra | +1.89%0.0 to +4.5 | Low | +2.11% | 67% | +2.91% | 0% · +4% | 3 |
| 25 | LYV Live Nation Entertainment | +1.99%-0.3 to +4.2 | Medium | +1.61% | 75% | +1.71% | -7% · +6% | 8 |
Worst after an earnings miss
| # | Stock | Median (likely range) | Confidence | Average | Up | vs SPY | Worst · best | Events |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | WDC Western Digital | -1.83%-2.0 to -1.3 | Low | -1.72% | 0% | -1.30% | -2% · -1% | 3 |
| 2 | CINF Cincinnati Financial | -1.76%-2.2 to -1.4 | Low | -1.81% | 0% | -4.23% | -2% · -1% | 3 |
| 3 | GNRC Generac | -8.66%-9.5 to -8.2 | Low | -6.82% | 17% | -9.16% | -12% · +6% | 6 |
| 4 | SCHW Charles Schwab Corporation | -3.94%-6.2 to -2.7 | Low | -4.26% | 0% | -4.02% | -6% · -3% | 3 |
| 5 | SBAC SBA Communications | -1.58%-2.5 to -0.5 | Medium | -0.83% | 27% | -0.63% | -5% · +8% | 11 |
| 6 | GILD Gilead Sciences | -2.42%-3.7 to -1.9 | Low | -1.72% | 25% | -2.07% | -4% · +2% | 4 |
| 7 | AEP American Electric Power | -1.45%-2.0 to 0.0 | Low | -1.44% | 17% | -2.25% | -4% · 0% | 6 |
| 8 | REG Regency Centers | -0.83%-2.3 to -0.5 | Low | -1.20% | 0% | -0.49% | -2% · 0% | 3 |
| 9 | ARE Alexandria Real Estate … | -2.13%-5.3 to -1.5 | Medium | -2.10% | 20% | -2.46% | -7% · +4% | 10 |
| 10 | CPT Camden Property Trust | -0.85%-2.7 to -0.2 | Medium | -1.23% | 20% | -2.75% | -5% · +1% | 10 |
| 11 | CAPS meme | -17.39%-20.5 to -12.2 | Low | -16.43% | 0% | -16.95% | -21% · -11% | 5 |
| 12 | LUV Southwest Airlines | -1.48%-3.1 to +0.2 | Medium | -1.45% | 38% | -1.24% | -7% · +3% | 8 |
| 13 | ATO Atmos Energy | -1.17%-2.3 to +0.4 | Low | -1.02% | 33% | -0.51% | -2% · 0% | 3 |
| 14 | UBER Uber | -4.16%-5.6 to -3.9 | Low | -3.27% | 33% | -4.45% | -8% · +2% | 6 |
| 15 | DLR Digital Realty | -2.53%-5.0 to -0.2 | Medium | -1.01% | 30% | -1.07% | -5% · +9% | 10 |
| 16 | BXP BXP, Inc. | -2.04%-4.1 to -1.8 | Low | -2.44% | 17% | -1.84% | -7% · +1% | 6 |
| 17 | UDR UDR, Inc. | -0.71%-2.0 to +0.4 | Low | -0.61% | 29% | -1.30% | -3% · +3% | 7 |
| 18 | AEO meme | -5.04%-7.3 to -3.9 | Low | -4.72% | 20% | -4.21% | -9% · +2% | 5 |
| 19 | NVR NVR, Inc. | -0.74%-2.6 to 0.0 | Medium | -1.10% | 22% | -1.04% | -6% · +2% | 9 |
| 20 | TROW T. Rowe Price | -2.44%-3.4 to +1.3 | Low | -1.67% | 33% | -1.37% | -5% · +2% | 6 |
| 21 | DOC Healthpeak Properties | -1.64%-4.3 to -0.8 | Low | -2.20% | 14% | +0.48% | -7% · +2% | 7 |
| 22 | PGR Progressive Corporation | -1.33%-2.9 to +0.8 | Medium | -0.79% | 44% | -1.94% | -4% · +5% | 9 |
| 23 | DRI Darden Restaurants | -2.34%-2.5 to +0.4 | Low | -0.86% | 40% | -2.61% | -3% · +3% | 5 |
| 24 | DUK Duke Energy | -0.07%-0.4 to +0.3 | Low | -0.23% | 43% | +0.02% | -3% · +2% | 7 |
| 25 | PFG Principal Financial Group | -1.22%-4.3 to -0.7 | Medium | -1.54% | 12% | -0.44% | -8% · +5% | 8 |
Stocks with at least 3 independent periods, ordered on an evidence-weighted median: each stock's median is pulled toward the S&P 500 typical value in proportion to its uncertainty, so a lucky handful of events cannot top the list. Confidence counts independent holding periods (overlapping ones count once): High 20+, Medium 8+, Low 3+. Median and average gain over the next week from the entry close; Up = share of events followed by a gain; vs SPY = median gain minus SPY over the same sessions. Ranks on the stock pages place each stock among the S&P 500 stocks. Small samples are noisy, and the past does not repeat on schedule. Not advice.