Aftermath
After an earnings miss, over the next quarter
EPS below the consensus; entry at the close of the session that first traded on it. Each stock's median gain after its own events of this kind in the past 5 years, from the close of the session the event was known. Updated .
The typical S&P 500 stock gained +1.59% over the next quarter after an earnings miss (half of them between -2.29% and +6.03%), against +2.15% on any day.
Latest earnings misses, last few sessions
No earnings misses in the last few sessions.
Best after an earnings miss
| # | Stock | Median (likely range) | Confidence | Average | Up | vs SPY | Worst · best | Events |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | STLD Steel Dynamics | +11.43%+8.6 to +11.8 | Low | +12.06% | 100% | +3.46% | +9% · +17% | 4 |
| 2 | PCAR Paccar | +12.27%+10.0 to +13.5 | Low | +9.94% | 86% | +7.53% | -16% · +26% | 7 |
| 3 | VRSK Verisk Analytics | +5.99%+3.2 to +6.5 | Low | +5.24% | 100% | -1.21% | +3% · +7% | 3 |
| 4 | ACN Accenture | +10.29%+10.0 to +16.1 | Low | +12.12% | 100% | +5.26% | +10% · +16% | 3 |
| 5 | TGT Target Corporation | +6.65%+5.5 to +7.7 | Low | +7.32% | 100% | +4.79% | +3% · +12% | 6 |
| 6 | ORLY O'Reilly Automotive | +7.44%+2.2 to +9.7 | Medium | +7.11% | 100% | +1.94% | +2% · +13% | 8 |
| 7 | AMP Ameriprise Financial | +13.75%+5.4 to +18.2 | Low | +12.45% | 100% | +9.03% | +5% · +18% | 3 |
| 8 | EVRG Evergy | +6.00%+3.1 to +6.6 | Low | +5.63% | 83% | -1.67% | -1% · +10% | 6 |
| 9 | KMB Kimberly-Clark | +9.09%+1.8 to +10.0 | Low | +9.45% | 100% | +11.15% | +2% · +18% | 4 |
| 10 | PLD Prologis | +5.73%0.0 to +7.5 | Low | +4.39% | 67% | -10.34% | 0% · +7% | 3 |
| 11 | UPS United Parcel Service | +4.17%+0.1 to +5.6 | Low | +3.28% | 100% | -6.99% | 0% · +6% | 3 |
| 12 | COST Costco | +5.39%-0.1 to +7.4 | Low | +4.23% | 67% | +0.20% | 0% · +7% | 3 |
| 13 | MTB M&T Bank | +15.15%+5.8 to +16.8 | Low | +11.01% | 80% | +4.44% | -5% · +22% | 5 |
| 14 | PFG Principal Financial Group | +8.30%+0.4 to +10.5 | Medium | +5.38% | 88% | -3.18% | -13% · +16% | 8 |
| 15 | SPG Simon Property Group | +6.81%+4.5 to +8.0 | Medium | +5.59% | 75% | +2.33% | -14% · +29% | 12 |
| 16 | XEL Xcel Energy | +4.23%+1.6 to +7.6 | Medium | +3.04% | 78% | +0.45% | -8% · +9% | 9 |
| 17 | UNP Union Pacific Corporation | +7.72%+4.9 to +13.4 | Low | +4.82% | 71% | -2.47% | -13% · +16% | 7 |
| 18 | DAL Delta Air Lines | +25.74%+13.7 to +29.4 | Low | +21.12% | 80% | +16.35% | -3% · +40% | 5 |
| 19 | EIX Edison International | +3.79%-1.2 to +4.2 | Low | +2.24% | 67% | +2.33% | -1% · +4% | 3 |
| 20 | OKE Oneok | +4.16%+0.9 to +7.3 | Medium | +2.85% | 88% | -2.25% | -13% · +10% | 8 |
| 21 | CAH Cardinal Health | +10.47%+7.3 to +22.4 | Low | +13.37% | 100% | +12.23% | +7% · +22% | 3 |
| 22 | RF Regions Financial Corporation | +14.13%+2.9 to +20.0 | Low | +13.53% | 83% | +3.88% | -3% · +33% | 6 |
| 23 | ED Consolidated Edison | +3.78%+0.8 to +5.7 | Low | +5.05% | 100% | +4.99% | +1% · +12% | 4 |
| 24 | NWSA News Corp (Class … | +11.95%-2.1 to +15.5 | Low | +8.45% | 67% | +5.91% | -2% · +15% | 3 |
| 25 | NWS News Corp (Class … | +12.17%-2.1 to +14.3 | Low | +8.10% | 67% | +4.71% | -2% · +14% | 3 |
Worst after an earnings miss
| # | Stock | Median (likely range) | Confidence | Average | Up | vs SPY | Worst · best | Events |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | PPG PPG Industries | -5.57%-7.6 to -3.7 | Low | -5.62% | 0% | -9.48% | -8% · -4% | 3 |
| 2 | SBAC SBA Communications | -6.28%-10.7 to -4.4 | Medium | -5.33% | 20% | -16.05% | -14% · +11% | 10 |
| 3 | DG Dollar General | -7.00%-8.6 to -4.8 | Low | -6.99% | 0% | -6.74% | -14% · 0% | 5 |
| 4 | AMT American Tower | -6.73%-12.4 to -2.8 | Medium | -5.23% | 25% | -13.30% | -15% · +13% | 8 |
| 5 | PNW Pinnacle West Capital | -1.51%-2.5 to -1.0 | Low | -0.75% | 20% | -4.19% | -4% · +5% | 5 |
| 6 | PTC PTC Inc. | -5.20%-8.6 to -5.0 | Low | -3.71% | 25% | -0.29% | -9% · +4% | 4 |
| 7 | XYZ Block, Inc. | -12.45%-15.6 to -3.4 | Medium | -6.92% | 22% | -12.11% | -57% · +64% | 9 |
| 8 | REG Regency Centers | -1.27%-1.8 to +2.5 | Low | -0.17% | 33% | +4.51% | -2% · +3% | 3 |
| 9 | LHX L3Harris | -7.48%-13.2 to -2.3 | Low | -7.65% | 0% | -12.74% | -13% · -2% | 3 |
| 10 | GILD Gilead Sciences | -5.48%-11.9 to -4.5 | Low | -4.65% | 25% | -7.31% | -12% · +4% | 4 |
| 11 | AWK American Water Works | -3.07%-6.7 to +0.1 | Medium | -0.73% | 38% | -12.24% | -10% · +18% | 8 |
| 12 | ROL Rollins, Inc. | -12.01%-17.0 to -8.4 | Low | -8.64% | 25% | -10.28% | -17% · +6% | 4 |
| 13 | AMCR Amcor | -0.18%-2.5 to +0.9 | Low | +0.25% | 50% | -8.27% | -3% · +4% | 4 |
| 14 | SCHW Charles Schwab Corporation | -16.38%-31.5 to -15.4 | Low | -21.10% | 0% | -14.18% | -32% · -15% | 3 |
| 15 | ERIE Erie Indemnity | -4.49%-7.4 to -1.7 | Medium | -2.80% | 12% | -7.41% | -21% · +28% | 8 |
| 16 | NDSN Nordson Corporation | -6.79%-9.7 to +2.3 | Low | -4.72% | 33% | -2.99% | -10% · +2% | 3 |
| 17 | TSN Tyson Foods | -12.56%-15.5 to -4.8 | Low | -7.93% | 20% | -9.35% | -16% · +10% | 5 |
| 18 | OTIS Otis Worldwide | -3.42%-8.6 to +2.1 | Low | -3.29% | 33% | -6.83% | -9% · +2% | 3 |
| 19 | YUM Yum! Brands | +0.14%-0.9 to +1.8 | Medium | +0.63% | 50% | -1.11% | -14% · +9% | 10 |
| 20 | HBAN Huntington Bancshares | -3.62%-3.7 to +5.7 | Low | -0.55% | 33% | -0.44% | -4% · +6% | 3 |
| 21 | ZTS Zoetis | -11.49%-16.2 to -7.7 | Low | -3.28% | 25% | -10.06% | -16% · +26% | 4 |
| 22 | INCY Incyte | -2.01%-6.0 to +0.8 | Medium | +1.33% | 40% | -6.78% | -11% · +25% | 10 |
| 23 | AVY Avery Dennison | -3.38%-6.7 to -1.5 | Low | -0.55% | 33% | -3.66% | -10% · +15% | 6 |
| 24 | HSIC Henry Schein | -1.57%-8.6 to -0.3 | Low | -2.07% | 25% | -7.41% | -9% · +3% | 4 |
| 25 | BF-B Brown–Forman | -4.08%-9.6 to +1.2 | Medium | -3.27% | 40% | -6.81% | -15% · +10% | 10 |
Stocks with at least 3 independent periods, ordered on an evidence-weighted median: each stock's median is pulled toward the S&P 500 typical value in proportion to its uncertainty, so a lucky handful of events cannot top the list. Confidence counts independent holding periods (overlapping ones count once): High 20+, Medium 8+, Low 3+. Median and average gain over the next quarter from the entry close; Up = share of events followed by a gain; vs SPY = median gain minus SPY over the same sessions. Ranks on the stock pages place each stock among the S&P 500 stocks. Small samples are noisy, and the past does not repeat on schedule. Not advice.