After an analyst upgrade, over the next day
A rating upgrade; entry at the next session's close. Each stock's median gain after its own events of this kind in the past 5 years, from the close of the session the event was known. Updated .
The typical S&P 500 stock gained +0.22% over the next day after an analyst upgrade (half of them between -0.78% and +1.21%), against +0.06% on any day.
Latest analyst upgrades, last few sessions
| Entry | Stock | Its median, 1 day | Confidence | Rank | Up | Events | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 30 | NFLX Netflix | Deutsche Bank: Hold → Buy | +0.58% | Low | #5 of 19 | 71% | 7 |
Best after an analyst upgrade
| # | Stock | Median (likely range) | Confidence | Average | Up | vs SPY | Worst · best | Events |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | NOW ServiceNow | +1.51%-2.0 to +1.9 | Low | +0.48% | 67% | +0.64% | -2% · +2% | 3 |
| 2 | STX Seagate Technology | +2.05%-0.2 to +5.6 | Low | +2.47% | 67% | +1.70% | 0% · +6% | 3 |
| 3 | INTC Intel | +2.02%-3.1 to +2.3 | Low | +0.56% | 57% | +0.88% | -6% · +6% | 7 |
| 4 | BE Bloom Energy | +3.37%-1.8 to +6.1 | Low | +2.56% | 67% | +3.04% | -2% · +6% | 3 |
| 5 | NFLX Netflix | +0.58%-1.7 to +1.0 | Low | +0.11% | 71% | +0.16% | -2% · +2% | 7 |
| 6 | AMAT Applied Materials | +0.91%+0.3 to +4.1 | Low | +1.73% | 80% | +0.60% | -1% · +4% | 5 |
| 7 | IREN meme | +2.50%-1.9 to +8.0 | Low | +2.88% | 67% | +2.94% | -2% · +8% | 3 |
| 8 | PLTR Palantir Technologies | +0.55%-1.6 to +1.8 | Low | +0.85% | 57% | +0.18% | -2% · +6% | 7 |
| 9 | MU Micron Technology | +4.01%-7.0 to +5.8 | Low | +0.95% | 67% | +3.39% | -7% · +6% | 3 |
| 10 | MCD McDonald's | +0.70%-3.1 to +1.3 | Low | -0.03% | 75% | +0.57% | -3% · +2% | 4 |
| 11 | AMD Advanced Micro Devices | -0.89%-2.6 to +11.4 | Low | +2.32% | 44% | -0.84% | -7% · +11% | 9 |
| 12 | CRWD CrowdStrike | +0.22%-3.4 to +0.7 | Medium | -0.51% | 56% | -0.01% | -5% · +4% | 9 |
| 13 | RKLB meme | -2.45%-8.3 to -1.5 | Low | -2.49% | 25% | -3.31% | -8% · +3% | 4 |
| 14 | CRWV meme | -1.79%-2.9 to -0.8 | Low | -2.69% | 33% | -1.39% | -11% · +1% | 6 |
| 15 | TTD meme | -1.11%-2.4 to +2.2 | Low | -0.46% | 33% | -1.54% | -2% · +2% | 3 |
| 16 | SNPS Synopsys | -0.68%-1.9 to +1.0 | Low | -0.27% | 40% | -0.38% | -2% · +2% | 5 |
| 17 | RIVN meme | -2.05%-3.1 to -1.9 | Low | -3.00% | 0% | -2.45% | -8% · -1% | 6 |
| 18 | AAPL Apple Inc. | -0.20%-1.6 to +0.4 | Low | -0.31% | 43% | -0.48% | -3% · +2% | 7 |
| 19 | TSLA Tesla, Inc. | -1.35%-3.0 to -0.8 | Low | -0.98% | 25% | -1.20% | -3% · +2% | 4 |
| 20 | IBM IBM | -1.26%-1.9 to -0.7 | Low | -0.68% | 25% | -0.92% | -2% · +2% | 4 |
| 21 | BA Boeing | -0.30%-0.9 to -0.2 | Low | -0.05% | 25% | -0.82% | -1% · +1% | 4 |
| 22 | NKE Nike, Inc. | -1.06%-1.8 to -0.3 | Low | -0.91% | 20% | -1.05% | -2% · +1% | 5 |
| 23 | ORCL Oracle Corporation | -3.27%-5.1 to -2.5 | Low | -3.54% | 0% | -2.79% | -5% · -2% | 5 |
| 24 | COST Costco | -0.63%-0.7 to 0.0 | Low | -0.46% | 0% | -0.27% | -1% · 0% | 3 |
Worst after an analyst upgrade
| # | Stock | Median (likely range) | Confidence | Average | Up | vs SPY | Worst · best | Events |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | COST Costco | -0.63%-0.7 to 0.0 | Low | -0.46% | 0% | -0.27% | -1% · 0% | 3 |
| 2 | ORCL Oracle Corporation | -3.27%-5.1 to -2.5 | Low | -3.54% | 0% | -2.79% | -5% · -2% | 5 |
| 3 | NKE Nike, Inc. | -1.06%-1.8 to -0.3 | Low | -0.91% | 20% | -1.05% | -2% · +1% | 5 |
| 4 | BA Boeing | -0.30%-0.9 to -0.2 | Low | -0.05% | 25% | -0.82% | -1% · +1% | 4 |
| 5 | IBM IBM | -1.26%-1.9 to -0.7 | Low | -0.68% | 25% | -0.92% | -2% · +2% | 4 |
| 6 | TSLA Tesla, Inc. | -1.35%-3.0 to -0.8 | Low | -0.98% | 25% | -1.20% | -3% · +2% | 4 |
| 7 | AAPL Apple Inc. | -0.20%-1.6 to +0.4 | Low | -0.31% | 43% | -0.48% | -3% · +2% | 7 |
| 8 | RIVN meme | -2.05%-3.1 to -1.9 | Low | -3.00% | 0% | -2.45% | -8% · -1% | 6 |
| 9 | SNPS Synopsys | -0.68%-1.9 to +1.0 | Low | -0.27% | 40% | -0.38% | -2% · +2% | 5 |
| 10 | TTD meme | -1.11%-2.4 to +2.2 | Low | -0.46% | 33% | -1.54% | -2% · +2% | 3 |
| 11 | CRWV meme | -1.79%-2.9 to -0.8 | Low | -2.69% | 33% | -1.39% | -11% · +1% | 6 |
| 12 | RKLB meme | -2.45%-8.3 to -1.5 | Low | -2.49% | 25% | -3.31% | -8% · +3% | 4 |
| 13 | CRWD CrowdStrike | +0.22%-3.4 to +0.7 | Medium | -0.51% | 56% | -0.01% | -5% · +4% | 9 |
| 14 | AMD Advanced Micro Devices | -0.89%-2.6 to +11.4 | Low | +2.32% | 44% | -0.84% | -7% · +11% | 9 |
| 15 | MCD McDonald's | +0.70%-3.1 to +1.3 | Low | -0.03% | 75% | +0.57% | -3% · +2% | 4 |
| 16 | MU Micron Technology | +4.01%-7.0 to +5.8 | Low | +0.95% | 67% | +3.39% | -7% · +6% | 3 |
| 17 | PLTR Palantir Technologies | +0.55%-1.6 to +1.8 | Low | +0.85% | 57% | +0.18% | -2% · +6% | 7 |
| 18 | IREN meme | +2.50%-1.9 to +8.0 | Low | +2.88% | 67% | +2.94% | -2% · +8% | 3 |
| 19 | AMAT Applied Materials | +0.91%+0.3 to +4.1 | Low | +1.73% | 80% | +0.60% | -1% · +4% | 5 |
| 20 | NFLX Netflix | +0.58%-1.7 to +1.0 | Low | +0.11% | 71% | +0.16% | -2% · +2% | 7 |
| 21 | BE Bloom Energy | +3.37%-1.8 to +6.1 | Low | +2.56% | 67% | +3.04% | -2% · +6% | 3 |
| 22 | INTC Intel | +2.02%-3.1 to +2.3 | Low | +0.56% | 57% | +0.88% | -6% · +6% | 7 |
| 23 | STX Seagate Technology | +2.05%-0.2 to +5.6 | Low | +2.47% | 67% | +1.70% | 0% · +6% | 3 |
| 24 | NOW ServiceNow | +1.51%-2.0 to +1.9 | Low | +0.48% | 67% | +0.64% | -2% · +2% | 3 |
Stocks with at least 3 independent periods, ordered on an evidence-weighted median: each stock's median is pulled toward the S&P 500 typical value in proportion to its uncertainty, so a lucky handful of events cannot top the list. Confidence counts independent holding periods (overlapping ones count once): High 20+, Medium 8+, Low 3+. Median and average gain over the next day from the entry close; Up = share of events followed by a gain; vs SPY = median gain minus SPY over the same sessions. Ranks on the stock pages place each stock among the S&P 500 stocks. Small samples are noisy, and the past does not repeat on schedule. Not advice.