After an analyst upgrade, over the next quarter
A rating upgrade; entry at the next session's close. Each stock's median gain after its own events of this kind in the past 5 years, from the close of the session the event was known. Updated .
The typical S&P 500 stock gained -2.43% over the next quarter after an analyst upgrade (half of them between -9.66% and +23.91%), against +2.15% on any day.
Latest analyst upgrades, last few sessions
| Entry | Stock | Its median, 1 quarter | Confidence | Rank | Up | Events | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 30 | NFLX Netflix | Deutsche Bank: Hold → Buy | -22.51% | Low | #11 of 11 | 17% | 6 |
Best after an analyst upgrade
| # | Stock | Median (likely range) | Confidence | Average | Up | vs SPY | Worst · best | Events |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | INTC Intel | +34.31%+28.0 to +40.6 | Low | +26.61% | 83% | +32.17% | -22% · +54% | 6 |
| 2 | AMAT Applied Materials | +29.48%+29.2 to +38.6 | Low | +34.66% | 100% | +28.32% | +27% · +49% | 5 |
| 3 | CRWD CrowdStrike | +46.54%-14.2 to +49.4 | Low | +33.83% | 56% | +38.98% | -15% · +98% | 9 |
| 4 | AMD Advanced Micro Devices | +18.34%-13.1 to +18.3 | Low | +10.23% | 62% | +12.37% | -13% · +36% | 8 |
| 5 | AAPL Apple Inc. | +2.86%+2.6 to +17.2 | Low | +7.49% | 80% | +2.15% | -5% · +20% | 5 |
| 6 | TSLA Tesla, Inc. | -2.43%-4.6 to +10.8 | Low | -1.00% | 25% | -7.09% | -10% · +11% | 4 |
| 7 | NOW ServiceNow | -16.95%-29.5 to +29.6 | Low | -5.61% | 33% | -22.17% | -29% · +30% | 3 |
| 8 | IBM IBM | -6.25%-19.6 to +10.0 | Low | -5.53% | 25% | -10.98% | -20% · +10% | 4 |
| 9 | NKE Nike, Inc. | -9.72%-14.3 to +2.8 | Low | -7.80% | 20% | -12.78% | -14% · +3% | 5 |
| 10 | CRWV meme | -18.63%-42.5 to -3.1 | Low | -16.42% | 25% | -24.42% | -42% · +14% | 4 |
| 11 | MCD McDonald's | -9.61%-10.2 to +2.3 | Low | -7.54% | 25% | -14.13% | -13% · +2% | 4 |
| 12 | NFLX Netflix | -22.51%-26.0 to -14.7 | Low | -17.06% | 17% | -26.66% | -26% · +9% | 6 |
Worst after an analyst upgrade
| # | Stock | Median (likely range) | Confidence | Average | Up | vs SPY | Worst · best | Events |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | NFLX Netflix | -22.51%-26.0 to -14.7 | Low | -17.06% | 17% | -26.66% | -26% · +9% | 6 |
| 2 | MCD McDonald's | -9.61%-10.2 to +2.3 | Low | -7.54% | 25% | -14.13% | -13% · +2% | 4 |
| 3 | CRWV meme | -18.63%-42.5 to -3.1 | Low | -16.42% | 25% | -24.42% | -42% · +14% | 4 |
| 4 | NKE Nike, Inc. | -9.72%-14.3 to +2.8 | Low | -7.80% | 20% | -12.78% | -14% · +3% | 5 |
| 5 | IBM IBM | -6.25%-19.6 to +10.0 | Low | -5.53% | 25% | -10.98% | -20% · +10% | 4 |
| 6 | NOW ServiceNow | -16.95%-29.5 to +29.6 | Low | -5.61% | 33% | -22.17% | -29% · +30% | 3 |
| 7 | TSLA Tesla, Inc. | -2.43%-4.6 to +10.8 | Low | -1.00% | 25% | -7.09% | -10% · +11% | 4 |
| 8 | AAPL Apple Inc. | +2.86%+2.6 to +17.2 | Low | +7.49% | 80% | +2.15% | -5% · +20% | 5 |
| 9 | AMD Advanced Micro Devices | +18.34%-13.1 to +18.3 | Low | +10.23% | 62% | +12.37% | -13% · +36% | 8 |
| 10 | CRWD CrowdStrike | +46.54%-14.2 to +49.4 | Low | +33.83% | 56% | +38.98% | -15% · +98% | 9 |
| 11 | AMAT Applied Materials | +29.48%+29.2 to +38.6 | Low | +34.66% | 100% | +28.32% | +27% · +49% | 5 |
| 12 | INTC Intel | +34.31%+28.0 to +40.6 | Low | +26.61% | 83% | +32.17% | -22% · +54% | 6 |
Stocks with at least 3 independent periods, ordered on an evidence-weighted median: each stock's median is pulled toward the S&P 500 typical value in proportion to its uncertainty, so a lucky handful of events cannot top the list. Confidence counts independent holding periods (overlapping ones count once): High 20+, Medium 8+, Low 3+. Median and average gain over the next quarter from the entry close; Up = share of events followed by a gain; vs SPY = median gain minus SPY over the same sessions. Ranks on the stock pages place each stock among the S&P 500 stocks. Small samples are noisy, and the past does not repeat on schedule. Not advice.