BTC Word Sense - Wallsti

"TRADING" - highly voted

Is BTC the canary in the coal mine? 2024-03-19T16:45:35+00:00 399 wallstreetbets

However now that it's legal and we aren't trading on foreign exchanges with CEOs disappearing into the sunset every month, it is a good indication of risk tolerance in the market overall.

Why MicroStrategy Stock Rocketed 24.7% Higher This Week 2024-11-25T12:12:24+00:00 53 stocks

MSTR's moves are a truly astonishing phenomenon in our markets today, up there in the annals of history with stock movements such as GME in Jan 2021.
*4) Various hedge funds were short MSTR and long BTC because it was trading at a premium of 1.5x NAV, and that premium kept increasing, causing people to have to close their books at a massive loss.
* 1) Catalysts, such as the MSTR BTC yield, Saylor's big BTC buys, and Trump winning, put MSTR on a lot of people's radar, and the buying started.
The magnitude of the MSTR moves, and the current premium it trades at, are truly an astonishing market phenomenon.
* 2) Leveraged funds such as MSTX and MSTU own over 10B of exposure MSTR, and have to buy a lot on up days, and they contribute to the runaway rally.

As is tradition, MSTR purchases another 21.5k bitcoin for $2.1bn 2024-12-09T14:15:40+00:00 26 wallstreetbets

Institutional investors are trading the volatility by buying the bonds and shorting the stock.

"TRADING" - recently

Can someone explain how MicroStrategy makes money? 2024-12-21T22:37:45+00:00 2 investing

> Many organisations aren't allowed to buy risky assets like bitcoin but are allowed to buy bonds so microstrategy take advantage of them and put a huge mark up on the bitcoin.
The only ones who lose there are the common holders, who get diluted versus buying BTC themselves.
The biggest buyers of the MSTR bonds are convertible arb funds.
They buy the convertibles and gamma hedge them, making money along the way so long as the underlying stock volatility stays up.
If MSTR is trading at a 100 imp vol and can sell convertibles with an implicit implied vol of 50 (or whatever), it's a win-win for Saylor (who wants to keep buying BTC) and the bond buyers (who are effectively "laundering" vol for profit).

The sheer idiocy of bitcoin and why this is it's last "cycle" 2024-12-20T18:32:13+00:00 2 wallstreetbets

BTC has two current uses, holding as the value goes up, and moving large amounts of 'money' around to get around trading blocks / embargo.
I suspect things like the conflict in Ukraine is good for BTC.
Nervousness of the ultra wealthy in Russia and China is good for BTC.
I don't actually think BTC will collapse and fade away, there just needs to be a bit of honesty about what it is, and is useful for.
If I wanted to 20m out of my country that only lets me move 50k, and will put me in a social correction camp if I'm caught, then I'd be more than happy to use use crypto and then either wait (for the volatility to swing back in my favour), or take the 5% hit.

I'm a failed trader. 2024-12-18T14:16:15+00:00 3 Trading

All that being said, I don't trade BTC or any crypto for that matter.
I was always pretty terrible at day trading but swing trading really fit my lifestyle, time requirements and I didn't feel pressured to complete market research within a certain time frame.
I tried various systems and finally settled on a momentum based ichimoku system and it's worked out really well for me.
CAGR generally always beats S&P and this year will be around 45-50%.
I'll never be one of these 100%+ return traders but I'm happy with the performance that I'm getting.

"SHARE" - highly voted

I don't understand MicroStrategy 2024-11-27T13:03:52+00:00 205 stocks

The funds are market neutral gamma traders, who will short MSTR shares to delta hedge, and will profit from the convexity of the call option as volatility increases.

Can someone explain to me Microstrategy? 2024-11-21T00:26:11+00:00 126 investing

- Owning 252,000 BTC (more than all public companies combined) positions MicroStrategy as a unique bridge between traditional finance and Bitcoin, with future potential in lending or derivatives.
- An investor buying $1,000 in bonds earns annual interest but can convert to shares if Bitcoin rallies, gaining equity upside with limited risk.
- Investors lend money via bonds (e.g., 0.75% interest) with the option to convert to $MSTR shares.
- Investor Benefits: - Downside Protection: Fixed interest payments and principal repayment safeguard against Bitcoin volatility.
- Upside Potential: If $MSTR stock rises with Bitcoin, bondholders can convert and profit.

MSTR Premium - what is this black magic? 2024-11-18T05:56:05+00:00 91 wallstreetbets

As long as BTC keeps rising, or holds in the ballpark, everyone is happy and everyone is making lots of money, and the strategy looks great.
And there's a lot of money riding on BTC being sustainable, from ETFs to publicly traded miners, to the marketplaces like Coinbase.
Combine that with people taking out credit cards to buy bitcoin and MSTR and it starts getting crazy.
When that asset increases, so does his share price, and to a larger extent than the underlying.
We may not know until those bonds start coming due, but it would take a drop well before that to have an impact.

"SHARE" - recently

Can someone explain how MicroStrategy makes money? 2024-12-21T19:57:25+00:00 18 investing

267 MSTR shares means I hold 0.48130221 BTC
It increased the BTC/share ratio for existing shareholders
Someone who held $97,000 of shares from the share offering *before* mine would see their BTC exposure jump from ~0.48 to 0.48130221

Can someone explain how MicroStrategy makes money? 2024-12-21T19:19:48+00:00 64 investing

They dilute the BTC exposure of those who purchase the newly offered shares and distribute it to existing shareholders.
MSTR can never provide the same amount of BTC per dollar because doing so would eliminate one half of their business model.
It's a house of cards built on the price of Bitcoin and the next investor paying an increasing premium for a smaller and smaller portion of Bitcoin
They're tipping their hand and saying the only thing they're doing is acting as a Bitcoin Treasury and a marketing machine.
- the price of Bitcoin remains steady and shares get priced at an outrageous premium allowing them to buy enormous amounts of Bitcoin

If Bitcoin falls below $23,000, MicroStrategy will be forced to liquidate all of its BTC holdings and file for bankruptcy lol 2024-12-18T00:29:30+00:00 2 wallstreetbets

He did sell for a short time because that was literally his paycheck.
If it was pre planned and then over months, and the price went up during that time plus he hasn't sold a share since.
He's wealthy from buying BTC and *holding* MSTR shares

"THING" - highly voted

Change my mind : MSTR is a bubble about to burst 2024-11-25T10:32:34+00:00 530 wallstreetbets

This is an extremely risky thing to do, but very profitable if it works (and catastrophic if it doesn't).
It has a chance to be listed in QQQ, which would bring a big inflow of purchases + crypto is popping.
Imagine what's going to happen o BTC once/if the US really passes the Bitcoin Act.
MSTR stock is not priced because of its current BTC holdings, but because of the amount they will be able to get.
They provide convertible bonds (debt) to buy more BTC.

MARA has bought another $1.1 BILLION Bitcoin (11,774 BTC ) achieved BTC Yield of 12.3% QTD and 47.6% YTD 2024-12-10T13:48:47+00:00 99 wallstreetbets

For their net asset value to just go down to match their liabilities, BTC would need to lose more than 80% of its value.
While bear cycles are a thing for BTC, and there will certainly be a drop at some point, the likelihood that it falls below 17k per BTC and stays there long enough for MSTR to be in financial trouble seems extremely low.
I am not sure about MARA's financials, but MSTR's bonds are super safe, unless you think BTC is going to 0.

finally hit big 2024-08-24T19:42:06+00:00 86 wallstreetbets

Wise investors don't dump a lot of money into something so risky.
The S&P may pull back a bit in the near-ish term before heading higher, but there is something like a 70% chance it finishes the year at an ATH.
When companies release earnings, remember what was going on in the period they are reporting.
If you can get a sense of the macro environment, and feel out which way things are probably headed in the short term, you can buy calls for 6-9 months down the road at a discount right now, compared to what they will cost closer to those companies reporting awesome earnings.
If you want to buy daily options, particularly on earnings days, sure you can make bank, but you can also go broke real quick.

"THING" - recently

Can someone explain how MicroStrategy makes money? 2024-12-21T20:19:16+00:00 3 investing

21 million coins is held out as some sort of feature, but what happens when the richest own 50% or more of it?
Completely removes it as any kind of possible real world currency as there's no longer any liquidity left.
I find it funny that you mention all these other real, tangible assets as examples of why bitcoin is also great.
Those assets all prop and back fiat.
Usable land and convertible energy resources to make other things for society and the economy.

Can someone explain how MicroStrategy makes money? 2024-12-21T19:19:48+00:00 64 investing

They dilute the BTC exposure of those who purchase the newly offered shares and distribute it to existing shareholders.
MSTR can never provide the same amount of BTC per dollar because doing so would eliminate one half of their business model.
It's a house of cards built on the price of Bitcoin and the next investor paying an increasing premium for a smaller and smaller portion of Bitcoin
They're tipping their hand and saying the only thing they're doing is acting as a Bitcoin Treasury and a marketing machine.
- the price of Bitcoin remains steady and shares get priced at an outrageous premium allowing them to buy enormous amounts of Bitcoin

The sheer idiocy of bitcoin and why this is it's last "cycle" 2024-12-20T18:32:13+00:00 2 wallstreetbets

BTC has two current uses, holding as the value goes up, and moving large amounts of 'money' around to get around trading blocks / embargo.
I suspect things like the conflict in Ukraine is good for BTC.
Nervousness of the ultra wealthy in Russia and China is good for BTC.
I don't actually think BTC will collapse and fade away, there just needs to be a bit of honesty about what it is, and is useful for.
If I wanted to 20m out of my country that only lets me move 50k, and will put me in a social correction camp if I'm caught, then I'd be more than happy to use use crypto and then either wait (for the volatility to swing back in my favour), or take the 5% hit.

"HOLDING" - highly voted

MicroStrategy owns a record $9,500,000,000 worth of Bitcoin. 2024-02-13T01:30:17+00:00 213 wallstreetbets

The rich use that infinite money glitch where their holdings are used for loans so they never need to convert.

As is tradition, MSTR purchases another 21.5k bitcoin for $2.1bn 2024-12-09T13:15:06+00:00 204 wallstreetbets

I'm all for BTC and it's kinda worrying that MSTR now approaching to holding about half a million BTC out of the 21 million that will ever be available.

MSTR is not a 2025 play 2024-12-15T13:08:09+00:00 188 wallstreetbets

I really hope you evaluate your choices here, and try not to bid the opposite way like some people do.
Just cuz one person lands the odd short doesn't mean you will invert the momentum.
A company that is purely based off buying and holding bitcoin, that its holdings rise in value when Bitcoin rises, and you expect Bitcoin to rise into next year, but not the stock that's literally 90% valued off BTC ?

"HOLDING" - recently

Why invest in MSTR instead of directly buying BTC? 2024-12-22T03:51:12+00:00 3 investing

You'd be betting on their ability to keep using their access to credit markets to acquire BTC more efficiently than you otherwise could, increase BTC per share, and eventually do something interesting with their massive holdings as BTC adoption matures.
Where BTC is a bearer asset with basically no counterparty risk, MSTR is very reliant on Saylor continuing to make good decisions and staying solvent.
God knows what happens if Saylor dies and gets replaced with some random suit.

Can someone explain how MicroStrategy makes money? 2024-12-21T20:16:13+00:00 4 investing

MicroStrategy's model is pretty straightforward--Bitcoin.
They bought a massive amount of BTC and use it as their primary asset, holding it on their balance sheet.
Their revenue comes from software, but the real play is leveraging Bitcoin's volatility to their advantage.
They're essentially betting on Bitcoin appreciating long-term while running the software business on the side.
As for overleveraging--yeah, they've taken on debt to load up on Bitcoin, which adds major risk if the market tanks.

Can someone explain how MicroStrategy makes money? 2024-12-21T20:07:58+00:00 2 investing

The reason is that much of the debt is stock-convertible which gives creditors potetially very big upside, and thus they are willing to lend at a low rate.
Even just dropping to the $20k's might kill the company as people try to sell their BTC holdings before MSTR's huge stash gets liquidated, which itself would drop price below $16.5k.
Also, some of the cash MSTR obtained was from regular stock issuance.
Comparing the scale of MSTR's actual business division with the size of their BTC holdings... it is very clear that they entirely depend on BTC staying above a certain price to avoid bankruptcy.
Right now the first google result says their liquidation point is $16,500 (requires an 83% drop in value).

"LONG" - highly voted

ENOUGH of this nonsense. When is MSTR going to F'ing crash? 2024-11-19T15:57:09+00:00 440 wallstreetbets

As people see it as a way to get exposure to Bitcoin without having to have physical exposure to bitcoin, which is attractive to many folks.
I can hold MSTR or a BTC ETF in my retirement account way easier than I can direct Bitcoin holdings.
That's what makes it attractive to investors.
As long as BTC goes up, MSTR will basically climb with it.
MSTR won't correct down until the crypto bear market hits.

BTC miners dropping during biggest BTC rally in years 2024-03-04T17:15:02+00:00 169 wallstreetbets

I think it's the speed at which BTC has went up.
Lots of hesitation thinking that the price won't stay elevated, but as more days go by above 60k, that's more and more profit for the miners.
As long as your miner picks are profitable above 15k a coin, should be ok.

ENOUGH of this nonsense. When is MSTR going to F'ing crash? 2024-11-19T18:42:23+00:00 119 wallstreetbets

The idea of continued inflation through ballooning debt because of deficit will make people continue to trade BTC.
Do I MSTR will probably be the leaders on the downside if we see a market correction, yes.
The problem is that you're betting against debt creation.
But ultimately none of this matters until the psychological bull mindset is broken because of massive wealth destruction, people will continue to buy every dip and pile into the riskiest assets they can find such as BTC since that has paid out for 3 years now.
MSTR will continue to moon as long as BTC holds its price, which will continue to happen as Trump promises to use USD from taxpayers to benefit crypto holders.

"LONG" - recently

Can someone explain how MicroStrategy makes money? 2024-12-21T22:37:45+00:00 2 investing

> Many organisations aren't allowed to buy risky assets like bitcoin but are allowed to buy bonds so microstrategy take advantage of them and put a huge mark up on the bitcoin.
The only ones who lose there are the common holders, who get diluted versus buying BTC themselves.
The biggest buyers of the MSTR bonds are convertible arb funds.
They buy the convertibles and gamma hedge them, making money along the way so long as the underlying stock volatility stays up.
If MSTR is trading at a 100 imp vol and can sell convertibles with an implicit implied vol of 50 (or whatever), it's a win-win for Saylor (who wants to keep buying BTC) and the bond buyers (who are effectively "laundering" vol for profit).

If Bitcoin falls below $23,000, MicroStrategy will be forced to liquidate all of its BTC holdings and file for bankruptcy lol 2024-12-18T16:56:13+00:00 3 wallstreetbets

in this case "Bitcoin goes down" isn't exactly a rock the earth type of scenario.
so this completely unrealistic hypothetical I'm postulating actually already happened.
again, I don't think it's realistic that BTC drops long term like 5-10 years.
not sure that makes any sense... most arguements and critiques are explained through logically considering hypothetical scenarios.
On the downswing I think lots of people are going to be dumping MSTR because it's one thing to have your BTC devalue 30-50%.

What happens if Satoshi Nakamoto (the creator of Bitcoin) sells his 1.1 million Bitcoin? They've an estimated worth of $116 billion. 2024-12-18T16:24:32+00:00 2 wallstreetbets

I can tell you from experience no OGs are posting threads about Satoshi crashes on Reddit.
Those "what ifs" die off when you stop caring about the price of BTC because you've held it so long, and realize he's just another holder.
Maybe a holder with a good book deal on how he pulled off resurrection.
Just pointing out the question and your long term prediction from this event are silly.
If a dip occurs we buy because he changes nothing regarding trust or stability of network.