Aftermath
After crossing above the 200-day average, over the next quarter
The close moves above its 200-day moving average. Each stock's median gain after its own events of this kind in the past 5 years, from the close of the session the event was known. Updated .
The typical S&P 500 stock gained +3.35% over the next quarter after crossing above the 200-day average (half of them between -1.03% and +7.67%), against +2.15% on any day.
Latest crosses above the 200-day average, last few sessions
| Entry | Stock | Its median, 1 quarter | Confidence | Rank | Up | Events | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 2 | CIEN Ciena | +3.2% on the day | +8.73% | Medium | #105 of 494 | 67% | 12 |
| Oct 2 | EL Estée Lauder Companies … | +2.0% on the day | -21.51% | Low | #437 of 494 | 14% | 7 |
| Oct 2 | FITB Fifth Third Bancorp | +0.9% on the day | +15.90% | Low | #79 of 494 | 83% | 6 |
| Oct 2 | MNST Monster Beverage | +1.9% on the day | +5.76% | Low | #158 of 494 | 62% | 8 |
| Oct 2 | ON ON Semiconductor | +6.0% on the day | -8.83% | Medium | #354 of 494 | 42% | 12 |
| Oct 2 | RL Ralph Lauren Corporation | +0.2% on the day | +21.36% | Low | #41 of 494 | 88% | 8 |
| Oct 2 | WMB Williams Companies | +1.9% on the day | +10.45% | Low | #71 of 494 | 71% | 7 |
| Oct 1 | ACN Accenture | +15.8% on the day | +7.76% | Low | #151 of 494 | 56% | 9 |
| Oct 1 | ALL Allstate | +1.1% on the day | +2.30% | Medium | #334 of 494 | 64% | 11 |
| Oct 1 | CB Chubb Limited | +1.9% on the day | +4.85% | Medium | #123 of 494 | 75% | 12 |
| Oct 1 | CDW CDW Corporation | +6.0% on the day | -3.48% | Medium | #446 of 494 | 33% | 12 |
| Oct 1 | CTSH Cognizant | +6.0% on the day | -7.94% | Medium | #396 of 494 | 33% | 9 |
| Oct 1 | NSC Norfolk Southern | +0.4% on the day | +4.16% | Medium | #230 of 494 | 55% | 11 |
| Oct 1 | PTC PTC Inc. | +4.4% on the day | +7.34% | Low | #66 of 494 | 83% | 6 |
| Oct 1 | SCHW Charles Schwab Corporation | +0.6% on the day | +7.36% | Medium | #81 of 494 | 60% | 10 |
| Oct 1 | SNPS Synopsys | +12.8% on the day | -4.58% | Medium | #390 of 494 | 25% | 12 |
| Oct 1 | WRB W. R. Berkley … | +2.0% on the day | -4.91% | Low | #387 of 494 | 33% | 6 |
| Sep 29 | GNRC Generac | +3.4% on the day | +14.94% | Low | #101 of 494 | 62% | 8 |
| Sep 28 | FOX Fox Corporation (Class … | +0.0% on the day | -1.18% | Low | #464 of 494 | 38% | 8 |
| Sep 28 | HAS Hasbro | +1.5% on the day | +9.61% | Low | #34 of 494 | 83% | 6 |
| Sep 28 | PGR Progressive Corporation | +1.9% on the day | -4.01% | Low | #403 of 494 | 40% | 5 |
| Sep 28 | RJF Raymond James Financial | +0.8% on the day | +6.54% | Medium | #82 of 494 | 75% | 12 |
| Sep 28 | ZBH Zimmer Biomet | +0.6% on the day | -10.18% | Medium | #485 of 494 | 17% | 12 |
Best after crossing above the 200-day average
| # | Stock | Median (likely range) | Confidence | Average | Up | vs SPY | Worst · best | Events |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | TT Trane Technologies | +14.54%+12.2 to +15.9 | Medium | +15.99% | 100% | +12.05% | +5% · +36% | 9 |
| 2 | GE GE Aerospace | +24.26%+22.6 to +29.9 | Low | +27.12% | 100% | +19.04% | +22% · +37% | 5 |
| 3 | MCK McKesson Corporation | +15.57%+10.0 to +18.0 | Low | +14.51% | 100% | +7.29% | +10% · +18% | 3 |
| 4 | HLT Hilton Worldwide | +8.08%+6.0 to +9.0 | Low | +7.53% | 100% | +0.92% | +5% · +9% | 5 |
| 5 | ROL Rollins, Inc. | +13.25%+10.2 to +15.3 | Low | +10.44% | 88% | +4.34% | -9% · +19% | 8 |
| 6 | ETN Eaton Corporation | +13.86%+10.7 to +18.9 | Low | +15.28% | 100% | +10.83% | +7% · +25% | 8 |
| 7 | WAB Wabtec | +12.03%+7.1 to +15.8 | Medium | +11.04% | 91% | +6.95% | -2% · +20% | 11 |
| 8 | JPM JPMorgan Chase | +17.50%+13.9 to +24.2 | Low | +18.09% | 100% | +7.75% | +9% · +26% | 6 |
| 9 | QQQ meme | +14.35%+9.8 to +19.5 | Low | +15.44% | 100% | +7.10% | +9% · +24% | 5 |
| 10 | GOOGL Alphabet Inc. (Class … | +21.40%+14.9 to +31.5 | Low | +21.36% | 83% | +11.98% | -3% · +42% | 6 |
| 11 | ADP Automatic Data Processing | +9.65%+3.2 to +9.9 | Low | +7.31% | 86% | +6.82% | -4% · +15% | 7 |
| 12 | FLEX Flex Ltd. | +23.21%+18.7 to +33.0 | Low | +25.80% | 100% | +21.10% | +18% · +39% | 6 |
| 13 | PH Parker Hannifin | +12.47%+10.1 to +13.8 | Low | +10.24% | 80% | +5.93% | -1% · +16% | 5 |
| 14 | DRI Darden Restaurants | +7.82%+6.9 to +10.4 | Low | +6.45% | 80% | +1.48% | -10% · +13% | 10 |
| 15 | HON Honeywell Technologies | +6.80%+3.6 to +7.7 | Medium | +5.24% | 83% | -0.48% | -12% · +13% | 18 |
| 16 | JCI Johnson Controls | +18.09%+12.9 to +26.8 | Low | +17.83% | 83% | +9.54% | -4% · +35% | 6 |
| 17 | HPE Hewlett Packard Enterprise | +16.38%+12.8 to +20.9 | Medium | +23.68% | 92% | +7.70% | -3% · +114% | 12 |
| 18 | AFL Aflac | +9.90%+7.7 to +11.6 | Low | +8.63% | 75% | +0.17% | -3% · +21% | 8 |
| 19 | ABBV AbbVie | +14.31%+4.6 to +16.4 | Medium | +10.45% | 87% | +5.97% | -6% · +23% | 15 |
| 20 | CBOE Cboe Global Markets | +9.15%+7.0 to +11.2 | Low | +11.66% | 100% | +12.72% | +6% · +22% | 7 |
| 21 | GOOG Alphabet Inc. (Class … | +19.67%+11.2 to +21.1 | Low | +16.10% | 80% | +7.98% | -3% · +32% | 5 |
| 22 | LYV Live Nation Entertainment | +10.37%+5.7 to +11.8 | Low | +11.74% | 100% | +2.50% | 0% · +39% | 8 |
| 23 | UHS Universal Health Services | +22.02%+20.3 to +22.3 | Low | +16.52% | 80% | +10.15% | -6% · +24% | 5 |
| 24 | HBAN Huntington Bancshares | +6.98%+4.4 to +9.8 | Medium | +7.18% | 82% | +0.98% | -1% · +18% | 11 |
| 25 | PWR Quanta Services | +17.12%+11.3 to +18.2 | Low | +20.55% | 100% | +4.79% | +11% · +41% | 5 |
Worst after crossing above the 200-day average
| # | Stock | Median (likely range) | Confidence | Average | Up | vs SPY | Worst · best | Events |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | HRL Hormel Foods | -6.48%-8.7 to -5.2 | Medium | -7.74% | 8% | -10.87% | -18% · 0% | 13 |
| 2 | TLT meme | -2.56%-3.2 to -0.6 | Medium | -1.52% | 32% | -7.51% | -12% · +10% | 19 |
| 3 | OXY Occidental Petroleum | -7.11%-9.4 to -3.5 | Medium | -2.85% | 21% | -9.95% | -11% · +35% | 14 |
| 4 | NKE Nike, Inc. | -12.36%-18.6 to -7.1 | Medium | -10.65% | 12% | -16.57% | -25% · +7% | 8 |
| 5 | HSIC Henry Schein | -2.82%-5.1 to -1.5 | Medium | -0.11% | 30% | -8.49% | -18% · +20% | 20 |
| 6 | HST Host Hotels & … | -3.22%-3.4 to -2.1 | Medium | -0.49% | 33% | -5.25% | -11% · +19% | 15 |
| 7 | PEG Public Service Enterprise … | -0.25%-1.2 to +0.6 | Medium | -0.17% | 50% | -6.43% | -14% · +24% | 20 |
| 8 | CMS CMS Energy | -3.10%-4.5 to +0.5 | Medium | -2.56% | 36% | -9.51% | -17% · +10% | 11 |
| 9 | KDP Keurig Dr Pepper | -2.98%-3.8 to -1.1 | Medium | -3.68% | 33% | -5.48% | -19% · +6% | 15 |
| 10 | KR Kroger | -3.10%-6.5 to -1.0 | Medium | -0.90% | 17% | -6.66% | -17% · +26% | 12 |
| 11 | ZBH Zimmer Biomet | -10.18%-13.2 to -4.3 | Medium | -7.08% | 17% | -14.34% | -14% · +10% | 12 |
| 12 | BLGO meme | -14.18%-19.2 to -9.1 | Medium | -6.06% | 10% | -14.12% | -29% · +72% | 10 |
| 13 | AMCR Amcor | -3.81%-6.7 to +1.1 | Medium | -3.08% | 38% | -3.19% | -17% · +9% | 13 |
| 14 | ROP Roper Technologies | -0.99%-1.8 to -0.8 | Low | -2.81% | 29% | -7.16% | -10% · +1% | 7 |
| 15 | NI NiSource | -1.37%-1.9 to -1.0 | Low | -0.80% | 12% | -5.14% | -6% · +12% | 8 |
| 16 | CL Colgate-Palmolive | -2.56%-7.4 to -0.5 | Medium | -2.35% | 25% | -6.02% | -14% · +15% | 12 |
| 17 | TSCO Tractor Supply | -2.67%-5.3 to 0.0 | Medium | -3.41% | 25% | -4.91% | -33% · +17% | 12 |
| 18 | CI Cigna | -5.68%-8.7 to -1.3 | Medium | -3.06% | 29% | -9.89% | -12% · +16% | 14 |
| 19 | SJM J.M. Smucker Company … | -3.65%-5.7 to +1.5 | Medium | -3.31% | 41% | -9.03% | -23% · +15% | 17 |
| 20 | PG Procter & Gamble | -0.86%-3.3 to +1.7 | Medium | +0.18% | 36% | -4.24% | -6% · +10% | 14 |
| 21 | FE FirstEnergy | -0.12%-2.6 to +1.6 | Medium | +0.38% | 47% | -2.23% | -8% · +16% | 15 |
| 22 | GDDY GoDaddy | -0.89%-3.8 to +1.6 | Low | +4.95% | 42% | -2.31% | -18% · +41% | 12 |
| 23 | CPT Camden Property Trust | -4.11%-10.0 to -2.6 | Medium | -2.31% | 25% | -7.89% | -12% · +16% | 12 |
| 24 | AWK American Water Works | -2.32%-5.9 to +0.5 | Medium | -1.45% | 36% | -6.62% | -16% · +11% | 14 |
| 25 | DHR Danaher Corporation | -5.40%-8.1 to +3.2 | Low | -3.08% | 33% | -6.35% | -19% · +17% | 12 |
Stocks with at least 3 independent periods, ordered on an evidence-weighted median: each stock's median is pulled toward the S&P 500 typical value in proportion to its uncertainty, so a lucky handful of events cannot top the list. Confidence counts independent holding periods (overlapping ones count once): High 20+, Medium 8+, Low 3+. Median and average gain over the next quarter from the entry close; Up = share of events followed by a gain; vs SPY = median gain minus SPY over the same sessions. Ranks on the stock pages place each stock among the S&P 500 stocks. Small samples are noisy, and the past does not repeat on schedule. Not advice.