PTC
Underperforming without a clear catalyst yet
- PTC −1.67% on the last session vs SPY +0.74%: −2.4 pts of stock-specific move.
- Aftermath, crossed below 200-day avg (Oct 2): After its 7 crosses below the 200-day average in the past 5 years, PTC typically lost 0.9% over the next day (median) and was higher only 29% of the time; half the outcomes fell between -1.9% and +0.3%. An ordinary day: +0.0%. Among S&P 500 stocks after crosses below the 200-day average, that ranks #408 of 497. (Low confidence: few independent periods.)
- 1 insider or congressional trade in the past 30 days.
- Market backdrop (Fri): Average Hourly Earnings m/m 0.1% vs 0.3% expected (cooler); Non-Farm Employment Change 29K vs 89K expected (weaker); S&P futures +0.41%, 10-year yield -5bp in the 30 minutes after.
After each kind of event
| Event | Events | 1 day | 1 week | 1 month | 1 quarter |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Any day | 1,255 | 0.0%#337 H | +0.3%#256 H | +0.2%#363 H | +1.1%#325 M |
| Big drop (-2.3% or worse) | 58 | -0.1%#454 H | +0.5%#220 H | +0.3%#465 H | -0.1%#343 M |
| Big gain Sep 30 (+2.0% or better) | 59 | -0.2%#450 H | +0.6%#201 H | -0.6%#411 H | +1.1%#334 M |
| Earnings beat | 16 | +0.8%#36 M | +0.5%#231 M | +2.9%#33 M | 0.0%#353 M |
| Earnings miss | 4 | -0.2%#169 L | +0.4%#149 L | -3.0%#240 L | -5.2%#274 L |
| 52-week high | 13 | -0.3%#349 M | -1.3%#402 M | -1.5%#474 M | -1.3%#311 M |
| 52-week low | 4 | -1.7%#179 L | -0.9%#202 L | +5.7%#24 L | +7.9%#91 L |
| Crossed above 200-day avg Oct 1 | 8 | -1.2%#470 M | +0.4%#235 L | +2.9%#166 L | +7.3%#66 L |
| Crossed below 200-day avg latest session | 8 | -0.9%#408 L | +0.4%#239 L | +0.3%#288 L | +7.1%#130 L |
| RSI oversold | 11 | -0.8%#464 M | +0.3%#333 M | +2.1%#255 M | +0.8%#355 L |
| RSI overbought | 13 | -0.3%#300 M | -1.5%#389 M | -0.6%#366 M | -0.3%#313 M |
| Reddit spike | — | — | — | — | — |
| Analyst upgrade | — | — | — | — | — |
| Analyst downgrade | — | — | — | — | — |
| Insider buy | — | — | — | — | — |
| Insider unplanned sale | — | — | — | — | — |
Median gain from the close of the session the event was known, over each holding period; #rank among the S&P 500 stocks after the same kind of event (#1 = best). "Big" is PTC's own: its worst / best 10% of days over the prior 2 years. Highlighted: happening in the latest session.
Crossed above 200-day avg
The close moves above its 200-day moving average.
| Holding | Events | Median (likely range) | Confidence | Rank | Up | vs SPY | Range of outcomes (worst · 25–75% · median · best) | vs S&P 500 stocks (their medians) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 day | 8 | -1.16% (-2.0 to -0.1) | Medium | #470 of 497 | 12% | -0.67% |
-3%
+7%
|
|
| 1 week | 7 | +0.36% (-0.2 to +1.3) | Low | #235 of 497 | 57% | +0.39% |
-6%
+10%
|
|
| 1 month | 7 | +2.94% (-0.7 to +9.7) | Low | #166 of 497 | 71% | +0.24% |
-11%
+23%
|
|
| 1 quarter | 6 ≈5 indep. | +7.34% (+5.4 to +15.4) | Low | #66 of 494 | 83% | +4.19% |
-2%
+18%
|
Range of outcomes: all of PTC's crosses above the 200-day average in the past 5 years, from the worst to the best result over each holding period; the box holds the middle half, the tick is the median. A wide box means the median alone says little. Hover the median for the average.
Crossed above 200-day avg by trend
| When it happened | Events | 1 day | 1 week | 1 month | 1 quarter |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Medium trendAbove its 50-day avg now | 5 | -1.7%L vs 0.0% | +2.4%L vs +0.2% | +2.3%L vs +0.5% | +5.4%L vs +1.7% |
| Below its 50-day avg | 3 | -0.1%L vs +0.1% | -0.2%L vs +0.3% | +7.1%L vs +0.1% | +7.8%L vs +1.0% |
| Short trendAbove its 20-day avg now | 7 | -0.7%L vs +0.1% | +0.4%L vs +0.2% | +2.3%L vs -0.3% | +6.9%L vs +0.9% |
| Below its 20-day avg | 1 | -2.0%– vs 0.0% | +0.4%– vs +0.3% | +7.1%– vs +0.7% | +17.5%– vs +1.9% |
The same event split by where PTC stood against its 200-, 50- and 20-day averages when it happened (a dip in an uptrend vs a falling knife); "vs" is the plain any-day median in that trend; "now" marks where it stands today. Splitting halves the evidence, so watch the confidence letters: H / M / L.
Latest crosses above the 200-day average
| Event | Entry | 1 day | 1 week | 1 month | 1 quarter | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 1, 2026 | Oct 1 @ $146.47 | +4.4% on the day | -1.7% | … | … | … |
| Aug 13, 2026 | Aug 13 @ $153.89 | +4.0% on the day | -2.7% | -0.2% | -11.2% | … |
| Jul 3, 2025 | Jul 3 @ $175.98 | +1.5% on the day | -0.7% | +10.0% | +23.0% | +15.4% |
| Sep 19, 2024 | Sep 19 @ $179.13 | +2.3% on the day | -1.8% | +1.1% | +2.9% | +5.4% |
| Aug 19, 2024 | Aug 19 @ $176.34 | +1.6% on the day | -0.1% | -0.2% | -0.7% | +7.8% |
| Mar 14, 2023 | Mar 14 @ $119.96 | +2.2% on the day | -2.0% | +0.4% | +7.1% | +17.5% |
| Oct 5, 2022 | Oct 5 @ $112.27 | +0.4% on the day | -0.1% | -5.9% | +9.7% | +6.9% |
| Jul 27, 2022 | Jul 27 @ $117.34 | +5.5% on the day | +7.2% | +3.7% | +1.7% | -1.7% |
Aftermath: entry is the close of the first session the event was fully known (the same session for price moves, the reaction session for earnings, the next session for Reddit, analyst and insider events, which are dated by day). Repeats within a few sessions count as one event. Past performance after an event says nothing certain about the next one. Not advice.