Aftermath
On any day, over the next day
Every session: the plain holding return, the baseline for the events below. Each stock's median gain after its own events of this kind in the past 5 years, from the close of the session the event was known. Updated .
The typical S&P 500 stock gained +0.06% over the next day on any day (half of them between +0.02% and +0.10%).
Best on any day
| # | Stock | Median (likely range) | Confidence | Average | Up | vs SPY | Worst · best | Events |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | TRGP Targa Resources | +0.29%+0.2 to +0.4 | High | +0.16% | 55% | +0.09% | -12% · +8% | 1254 |
| 2 | MPC Marathon Petroleum | +0.26%+0.2 to +0.3 | High | +0.18% | 56% | +0.14% | -13% · +11% | 1254 |
| 3 | FIX Comfort Systems USA | +0.27%+0.2 to +0.3 | High | +0.29% | 55% | +0.18% | -26% · +22% | 1254 |
| 4 | IRM Iron Mountain | +0.22%+0.1 to +0.3 | High | +0.11% | 55% | +0.13% | -10% · +10% | 1254 |
| 5 | OKE Oneok | +0.21%+0.1 to +0.3 | High | +0.07% | 55% | +0.09% | -13% · +8% | 1254 |
| 6 | ORLY O'Reilly Automotive | +0.15%+0.1 to +0.2 | High | +0.07% | 56% | +0.03% | -13% · +8% | 1254 |
| 7 | MCK McKesson Corporation | +0.17%+0.1 to +0.2 | High | +0.13% | 55% | +0.06% | -11% · +17% | 1254 |
| 8 | CIEN Ciena | +0.21%+0.1 to +0.3 | High | +0.21% | 54% | +0.11% | -21% · +23% | 1254 |
| 9 | BNY BNY Mellon | +0.16%+0.1 to +0.2 | High | +0.10% | 55% | +0.06% | -8% · +8% | 1254 |
| 10 | GE GE Aerospace | +0.20%+0.1 to +0.3 | High | +0.15% | 55% | +0.09% | -11% · +11% | 1254 |
| 11 | ANET Arista Networks | +0.21%+0.1 to +0.3 | High | +0.23% | 55% | +0.17% | -22% · +20% | 1254 |
| 12 | EME Emcor | +0.16%+0.1 to +0.2 | High | +0.18% | 55% | +0.10% | -19% · +19% | 1254 |
| 13 | TPL Texas Pacific Land … | +0.20%+0.1 to +0.3 | High | +0.13% | 54% | +0.17% | -16% · +24% | 1254 |
| 14 | NVDA Nvidia | +0.27%+0.2 to +0.4 | High | +0.25% | 53% | +0.13% | -17% · +24% | 1254 |
| 15 | WMB Williams Companies | +0.17%+0.1 to +0.2 | High | +0.10% | 54% | +0.06% | -8% · +5% | 1254 |
| 16 | TDG TransDigm Group | +0.17%+0.1 to +0.2 | High | +0.07% | 55% | +0.05% | -12% · +10% | 1254 |
| 17 | FICO Fair Isaac | +0.19%+0.1 to +0.3 | High | +0.08% | 55% | +0.07% | -27% · +31% | 1254 |
| 18 | PM Philip Morris International | +0.14%+0.1 to +0.2 | High | +0.08% | 55% | +0.03% | -8% · +11% | 1254 |
| 19 | APH Amphenol | +0.16%+0.1 to +0.2 | High | +0.15% | 54% | +0.09% | -13% · +10% | 1254 |
| 20 | HWM Howmet Aerospace | +0.17%+0.1 to +0.2 | High | +0.18% | 55% | +0.12% | -11% · +15% | 1254 |
| 21 | IBKR Interactive Brokers | +0.22%+0.1 to +0.3 | High | +0.16% | 54% | +0.11% | -13% · +16% | 1254 |
| 22 | STT State Street Corporation | +0.16%+0.1 to +0.2 | High | +0.09% | 55% | +0.07% | -12% · +10% | 1254 |
| 23 | NRG NRG Energy | +0.18%+0.1 to +0.3 | High | +0.11% | 53% | +0.08% | -15% · +26% | 1254 |
| 24 | VRTX Vertex Pharmaceuticals | +0.14%+0.1 to +0.2 | High | +0.10% | 55% | +0.06% | -21% · +13% | 1254 |
| 25 | VRT Vertiv | +0.28%+0.1 to +0.4 | High | +0.27% | 54% | +0.13% | -37% · +29% | 1254 |
Worst on any day
| # | Stock | Median (likely range) | Confidence | Average | Up | vs SPY | Worst · best | Events |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | WEN meme | -0.13%-0.2 to -0.1 | High | -0.06% | 47% | -0.14% | -13% · +26% | 1254 |
| 2 | VBIO meme | -0.87%-1.1 to -0.7 | High | -0.43% | 40% | -0.91% | -56% · +198% | 1226 |
| 3 | ALGN Align Technology | -0.15%-0.2 to -0.1 | High | -0.07% | 47% | -0.16% | -37% · +27% | 1254 |
| 4 | COO Cooper Companies (The) | -0.11%-0.2 to 0.0 | High | -0.03% | 47% | -0.12% | -15% · +12% | 1254 |
| 5 | ILMN Illumina, Inc. | -0.16%-0.2 to -0.1 | High | +0.02% | 48% | -0.19% | -15% · +25% | 1254 |
| 6 | MAA Mid-America Apartment Communities | -0.04%-0.1 to 0.0 | High | -0.02% | 48% | -0.10% | -6% · +8% | 1254 |
| 7 | NKE Nike, Inc. | -0.10%-0.2 to 0.0 | High | -0.08% | 47% | -0.15% | -20% · +15% | 1254 |
| 8 | SWK Stanley Black & … | -0.09%-0.2 to 0.0 | High | -0.01% | 47% | -0.13% | -16% · +16% | 1254 |
| 9 | HTZ meme | -0.33%-0.5 to -0.2 | High | -0.06% | 45% | -0.29% | -41% · +56% | 1254 |
| 10 | DIS Walt Disney Company … | -0.05%-0.1 to 0.0 | High | -0.02% | 48% | -0.12% | -13% · +12% | 1254 |
| 11 | INVH Invitation Homes | -0.03%-0.1 to 0.0 | High | -0.01% | 48% | -0.08% | -8% · +8% | 1254 |
| 12 | BIIB Biogen | -0.06%-0.1 to 0.0 | High | 0.00% | 48% | -0.13% | -8% · +40% | 1254 |
| 13 | PFE Pfizer | -0.04%-0.1 to 0.0 | High | 0.00% | 48% | -0.16% | -7% · +11% | 1254 |
| 14 | DOC Healthpeak Properties | -0.06%-0.1 to 0.0 | High | -0.01% | 48% | -0.06% | -7% · +18% | 1254 |
| 15 | MRNA Moderna | -0.33%-0.5 to -0.1 | High | +0.11% | 47% | -0.32% | -24% · +177% | 1254 |
| 16 | SJM J.M. Smucker Company … | -0.03%-0.1 to 0.0 | High | +0.02% | 49% | -0.10% | -16% · +10% | 1254 |
| 17 | BF-B Brown–Forman | -0.03%-0.1 to 0.0 | High | -0.05% | 48% | -0.08% | -18% · +13% | 1254 |
| 18 | COIN Coinbase | -0.29%-0.4 to -0.1 | High | +0.13% | 47% | -0.36% | -26% · +31% | 1254 |
| 19 | EL Estée Lauder Companies … | -0.09%-0.2 to 0.0 | High | -0.05% | 48% | -0.09% | -21% · +16% | 1254 |
| 20 | BLGO meme | 0.00%0.0 to 0.0 | High | +0.04% | 20% | -0.10% | -20% · +27% | 1254 |
| 21 | CAPS meme | 0.00%0.0 to 0.0 | High | -0.12% | 11% | -0.19% | -72% · +162% | 1254 |
| 22 | NIVF meme | 0.00%0.0 to 0.0 | High | +0.48% | 31% | -0.40% | -79% · +1583% | 1139 |
| 23 | NUAI meme | 0.00%0.0 to 0.0 | High | +0.21% | 32% | -0.10% | -41% · +84% | 1188 |
| 24 | OKLO meme | 0.00%0.0 to 0.0 | High | +0.26% | 44% | -0.04% | -54% · +42% | 1254 |
| 25 | SW Smurfit Westrock | 0.00%0.0 to 0.0 | High | +0.04% | 35% | -0.06% | -15% · +16% | 1254 |
Stocks with at least 3 independent periods, ordered on an evidence-weighted median: each stock's median is pulled toward the S&P 500 typical value in proportion to its uncertainty, so a lucky handful of events cannot top the list. Confidence counts independent holding periods (overlapping ones count once): High 20+, Medium 8+, Low 3+. Median and average gain over the next day from the entry close; Up = share of events followed by a gain; vs SPY = median gain minus SPY over the same sessions. Ranks on the stock pages place each stock among the S&P 500 stocks. Small samples are noisy, and the past does not repeat on schedule. Not advice.