MRNA
Moving with the market
- MRNA +0.57% on the last session vs SPY +0.74%: −0.2 pts of stock-specific move.
- Aftermath, big drop (Sep 30): After its 59 big drops in the past 5 years, MRNA typically lost 3.5% over the next week (median) and was higher only 36% of the time; half the outcomes fell between -8.2% and +7.4%. An ordinary week: -0.3%. Among S&P 500 stocks after big drops, that ranks #466 of 500.
- Market backdrop (Fri): Average Hourly Earnings m/m 0.1% vs 0.3% expected (cooler); Non-Farm Employment Change 29K vs 89K expected (weaker); S&P futures +0.41%, 10-year yield -5bp in the 30 minutes after.
After each kind of event
| Event | Events | 1 day | 1 week | 1 month | 1 quarter |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Any day | 1,255 | -0.3%#492 H | -0.3%#398 H | -2.9%#479 H | -9.9%#482 M |
| Big drop Sep 30 (-5.0% or worse) | 60 | -0.8%#450 H | -3.5%#466 H | +0.3%#319 H | -8.4%#295 M |
| Big gain (+5.5% or better) | 64 | +0.2%#230 H | -0.9%#298 H | +0.2%#248 H | +6.0%#218 M |
| Earnings beat | 15 | -0.5%#284 M | -6.6%#460 M | +0.6%#254 M | -7.2%#288 M |
| Earnings miss | 5 | +7.4%#108 L | -2.4%#163 L | +2.5%#111 L | -10.8%#179 L |
| 52-week high | 6 | +0.8%#220 L | -2.6%#278 L | -4.7%#439 L | -0.1%#218 L |
| 52-week low | 10 | -1.4%#251 M | -0.8%#154 M | -5.8%#198 M | -0.7%#127 M |
| Crossed above 200-day avg | 6 | -1.1%#316 L | -0.6%#276 L | -1.8%#261 L | +3.3%#235 L |
| Crossed below 200-day avg | 6 | -1.7%#310 L | -3.6%#348 L | -12.2%#396 L | -15.9%#406 L |
| RSI oversold | 12 | -1.0%#401 M | -6.8%#492 M | -11.1%#457 M | -31.0%#444 M |
| RSI overbought | 14 | +0.7%#190 M | -2.6%#285 M | -2.0%#274 M | -11.3%#289 M |
| Reddit spike | 4 | -1.5%#50 L | -4.5%#57 L | -3.6%#62 L | -22.0%#87 L |
| Analyst upgrade | — | — | — | — | — |
| Analyst downgrade | — | — | — | — | — |
| Insider buy | — | — | — | — | — |
| Insider unplanned sale | — | — | — | — | — |
Median gain from the close of the session the event was known, over each holding period; #rank among the S&P 500 stocks after the same kind of event (#1 = best). "Big" is MRNA's own: its worst / best 10% of days over the prior 2 years. Highlighted: happening in the latest session.
Any day
Every session: the plain holding return, the baseline for the events below.
| Holding | Events | Median (likely range) | Confidence | Rank | Up | vs SPY | Range of outcomes (worst · 25–75% · median · best) | vs S&P 500 stocks (their medians) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 day | 1254 | -0.33% (-0.5 to -0.1) | High | #492 of 503 | 47% | -0.32% |
-24%
+177%
|
|
| 1 week | 1250 ≈250 indep. | -0.27% (-0.9 to +0.3) | High | #398 of 503 | 49% | -0.79% |
-34%
+174%
|
|
| 1 month | 1234 ≈59 indep. | -2.94% (-5.5 to -1.0) | High | #479 of 503 | 44% | -4.04% |
-41%
+192%
|
|
| 1 quarter | 1192 ≈19 indep. | -9.87% (-16.1 to -0.7) | Medium | #482 of 501 | 40% | -12.49% |
-59%
+281%
|
Range of outcomes: all of MRNA's days in the past 5 years, from the worst to the best result over each holding period; the box holds the middle half, the tick is the median. A wide box means the median alone says little. Hover the median for the average.
Any day by trend
| When it happened | Events | 1 day | 1 week | 1 month | 1 quarter |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Long trendAbove its 200-day avg now | 391 | -0.1%H vs -0.1% | +1.2%H vs +1.2% | +1.9%H vs +1.9% | +2.4%M vs +2.4% |
| Below its 200-day avg | 665 | -0.4%H vs -0.4% | -0.7%H vs -0.7% | -4.7%H vs -4.7% | -10.0%M vs -10.0% |
| Medium trendAbove its 50-day avg now | 482 | -0.2%H vs -0.2% | -0.1%H vs -0.1% | -1.6%H vs -1.6% | -2.2%M vs -2.2% |
| Below its 50-day avg | 724 | -0.4%H vs -0.4% | -0.5%H vs -0.5% | -3.2%H vs -3.2% | -10.8%M vs -10.8% |
| Short trendAbove its 20-day avg now | 542 | -0.1%H vs -0.1% | -0.6%H vs -0.6% | -2.8%H vs -2.8% | -8.5%M vs -8.5% |
| Below its 20-day avg | 694 | -0.4%H vs -0.4% | 0.0%H vs 0.0% | -2.7%H vs -2.7% | -9.4%M vs -9.4% |
The same event split by where MRNA stood against its 200-, 50- and 20-day averages when it happened (a dip in an uptrend vs a falling knife); "vs" is the plain any-day median in that trend; "now" marks where it stands today. Splitting halves the evidence, so watch the confidence letters: H / M / L.
Aftermath: entry is the close of the first session the event was fully known (the same session for price moves, the reaction session for earnings, the next session for Reddit, analyst and insider events, which are dated by day). Repeats within a few sessions count as one event. Past performance after an event says nothing certain about the next one. Not advice.