Aftermath
After an earnings beat, over the next month
EPS above the consensus; entry at the close of the session that first traded on it. Each stock's median gain after its own events of this kind in the past 5 years, from the close of the session the event was known. Updated .
The typical S&P 500 stock gained +1.17% over the next month after an earnings beat (half of them between -0.29% and +2.58%), against +0.86% on any day.
Latest earnings beats, last few sessions
| Entry | Stock | Its median, 1 month | Confidence | Rank | Up | Events | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 2 | NKE Nike, Inc. | 1Q2027 · EPS +$0.04 (+9.9%) vs consensus · -3.6% reaction | -0.17% | Medium | #324 of 497 | 50% | 18 |
| Oct 1 | ACN Accenture | 4Q2026 · EPS +$0.11 (+3.4%) vs consensus · +15.8% reaction | +1.32% | Medium | #236 of 497 | 56% | 16 |
| Oct 1 | MKC McCormick & Company | 3Q2026 · EPS +$0.10 (+13.8%) vs consensus · -4.9% reaction | +2.64% | Medium | #135 of 497 | 57% | 14 |
| Oct 1 | MU Micron Technology | 4Q2026 · EPS +$1.60 (+5.0%) vs consensus · +3.0% reaction | +0.86% | Medium | #253 of 497 | 53% | 17 |
| Sep 30 | FDS FactSet | 4Q2026 · EPS +$0.17 (+4.0%) vs consensus · +3.8% reaction | +3.11% | Medium | #70 of 497 | 64% | 14 |
| Sep 30 | JBL Jabil | 4Q2026 · EPS +$0.32 (+8.0%) vs consensus · -10.0% reaction | +5.08% | Medium | #82 of 497 | 67% | 18 |
| Sep 29 | CCL Carnival Corporation | 3Q2026 · EPS +$0.08 (+5.9%) vs consensus · +13.4% reaction | -5.15% | Medium | #340 of 497 | 33% | 15 |
Best after an earnings beat
| # | Stock | Median (likely range) | Confidence | Average | Up | vs SPY | Worst · best | Events |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FTNT Fortinet | +4.21%+1.7 to +4.4 | High | +3.60% | 70% | +3.49% | -12% · +32% | 20 |
| 2 | VLTO Veralto | +3.85%+1.7 to +5.0 | Medium | +3.16% | 83% | +1.37% | -8% · +10% | 12 |
| 3 | WMB Williams Companies | +3.35%+2.5 to +4.4 | Medium | +3.01% | 73% | -1.52% | -6% · +13% | 15 |
| 4 | STT State Street Corporation | +3.27%+1.3 to +4.1 | Medium | +4.05% | 79% | +1.13% | -10% · +22% | 19 |
| 5 | HIG Hartford (The) | +4.57%+1.9 to +5.3 | Medium | +3.41% | 75% | +3.75% | -9% · +12% | 16 |
| 6 | WRB W. R. Berkley … | +3.32%+2.3 to +4.9 | Medium | +3.07% | 76% | +0.23% | -4% · +10% | 17 |
| 7 | FIX Comfort Systems USA | +6.67%+4.2 to +9.2 | Medium | +7.20% | 84% | +4.39% | -7% · +34% | 19 |
| 8 | RSG Republic Services | +2.37%+1.2 to +3.0 | High | +2.80% | 80% | +1.61% | -4% · +10% | 20 |
| 9 | TER Teradyne | +8.21%+4.6 to +9.5 | High | +7.98% | 70% | +4.89% | -8% · +32% | 20 |
| 10 | PGR Progressive Corporation | +3.76%+1.8 to +4.7 | Medium | +4.31% | 82% | +1.79% | -2% · +14% | 11 |
| 11 | PKG Packaging Corporation of … | +2.94%+1.4 to +4.2 | Medium | +2.87% | 75% | +0.57% | -5% · +15% | 16 |
| 12 | ERIE Erie Indemnity | +4.61%+1.1 to +5.0 | Medium | +4.93% | 75% | +1.26% | -8% · +27% | 12 |
| 13 | UNP Union Pacific Corporation | +3.55%+1.2 to +4.2 | Medium | +2.73% | 75% | +0.69% | -5% · +13% | 12 |
| 14 | NFLX Netflix | +8.71%+5.2 to +10.3 | Medium | +5.44% | 73% | +5.27% | -19% · +21% | 15 |
| 15 | TSCO Tractor Supply | +4.21%+2.9 to +5.3 | Medium | +2.97% | 75% | +0.86% | -18% · +17% | 12 |
| 16 | EXPD Expeditors International | +3.13%+1.0 to +4.6 | Medium | +3.35% | 73% | +2.00% | -1% · +11% | 15 |
| 17 | ARES Ares Management | +4.17%+0.6 to +5.1 | Medium | +1.42% | 73% | -0.02% | -13% · +12% | 11 |
| 18 | TFC Truist Financial | +3.93%+1.0 to +5.3 | Medium | +3.51% | 73% | -0.90% | -10% · +17% | 15 |
| 19 | EXE Expand Energy | +6.63%+3.6 to +7.7 | Medium | +4.41% | 71% | +0.92% | -10% · +22% | 17 |
| 20 | FICO Fair Isaac | +4.84%+2.3 to +5.9 | Medium | +3.88% | 73% | +3.86% | -13% · +25% | 15 |
| 21 | BRO Brown & Brown | +3.99%+0.8 to +6.1 | Medium | +2.00% | 71% | +1.04% | -14% · +11% | 17 |
| 22 | UAL United Airlines Holdings | +6.94%+1.9 to +10.6 | Medium | +5.22% | 78% | +3.04% | -13% · +27% | 18 |
| 23 | PSX Phillips 66 | +3.45%+0.6 to +4.7 | Medium | +4.58% | 81% | +2.55% | -8% · +26% | 16 |
| 24 | VRSK Verisk Analytics | +4.22%+3.2 to +8.3 | Medium | +4.09% | 76% | +3.18% | -10% · +17% | 17 |
| 25 | ADP Automatic Data Processing | +3.30%-1.0 to +4.1 | High | +1.87% | 60% | -1.48% | -14% · +12% | 20 |
Worst after an earnings beat
| # | Stock | Median (likely range) | Confidence | Average | Up | vs SPY | Worst · best | Events |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | MDLZ Mondelez International | -2.05%-3.9 to -0.9 | Medium | -1.41% | 28% | -2.43% | -7% · +9% | 18 |
| 2 | XEL Xcel Energy | -2.34%-4.9 to -2.2 | Low | -2.83% | 14% | -3.59% | -8% · +2% | 7 |
| 3 | IBKR Interactive Brokers | -1.45%-2.5 to -0.6 | Medium | -0.86% | 18% | -3.14% | -5% · +8% | 11 |
| 4 | KMB Kimberly-Clark | -1.49%-2.2 to -1.0 | Medium | -0.98% | 31% | -3.87% | -10% · +10% | 16 |
| 5 | SPG Simon Property Group | -3.12%-5.5 to -1.0 | Medium | -2.17% | 12% | -3.17% | -6% · +6% | 8 |
| 6 | CBRE CBRE Group | -1.27%-3.8 to -0.8 | Medium | -2.07% | 21% | -2.62% | -21% · +19% | 19 |
| 7 | RMD ResMed| | -1.91%-2.7 to -1.2 | Medium | -0.67% | 38% | -2.38% | -13% · +16% | 16 |
| 8 | VRSN Verisign | -1.16%-2.7 to +0.4 | Medium | -0.21% | 39% | -1.95% | -13% · +14% | 18 |
| 9 | NWS News Corp (Class … | -0.80%-2.8 to -0.1 | Medium | -1.01% | 35% | -0.86% | -10% · +7% | 17 |
| 10 | YUM Yum! Brands | -2.00%-3.9 to -1.2 | Medium | -0.89% | 20% | -3.56% | -7% · +10% | 10 |
| 11 | WYNN Wynn Resorts | -3.74%-8.1 to -2.5 | Medium | -3.66% | 20% | -5.41% | -9% · +5% | 10 |
| 12 | ETR Entergy | -0.40%-0.7 to +0.5 | Medium | +0.60% | 43% | -2.93% | -5% · +8% | 14 |
| 13 | FISV Fiserv | -1.82%-3.0 to -0.6 | Medium | -0.82% | 31% | -1.41% | -10% · +9% | 16 |
| 14 | SRE Sempra | -0.20%-1.2 to +1.1 | Medium | +1.03% | 47% | -1.87% | -6% · +16% | 15 |
| 15 | J Jacobs Solutions | -1.54%-2.9 to -0.8 | Medium | -0.72% | 33% | -0.86% | -8% · +7% | 15 |
| 16 | ROST Ross Stores | -1.71%-2.5 to -0.8 | Medium | -0.47% | 39% | -2.09% | -7% · +7% | 18 |
| 17 | FIS Fidelity National Information … | -4.17%-5.4 to -3.3 | Medium | -1.79% | 38% | -2.01% | -21% · +16% | 16 |
| 18 | WDAY Workday, Inc. | -1.91%-3.9 to +0.5 | Medium | -1.73% | 37% | -1.09% | -10% · +9% | 19 |
| 19 | RVTY Revvity | -3.46%-6.0 to -0.7 | Medium | -1.03% | 33% | -3.21% | -15% · +18% | 18 |
| 20 | CVS CVS Health | -0.81%-1.5 to -0.3 | Medium | -0.76% | 33% | -2.15% | -15% · +18% | 18 |
| 21 | MTD Mettler Toledo | -3.01%-7.2 to -0.8 | Medium | -2.27% | 28% | -3.62% | -11% · +13% | 18 |
| 22 | ZTS Zoetis | -0.09%-1.9 to +0.1 | Medium | +0.39% | 50% | -1.19% | -6% · +13% | 14 |
| 23 | STE Steris | -0.05%-1.2 to +0.5 | Medium | +0.78% | 47% | -1.20% | -8% · +15% | 15 |
| 24 | WY Weyerhaeuser | -2.38%-4.1 to +0.6 | Medium | -1.51% | 41% | -3.25% | -7% · +5% | 17 |
| 25 | VICI Vici Properties | -4.42%-4.9 to -2.7 | Low | -1.61% | 29% | -4.97% | -5% · +7% | 7 |
Stocks with at least 3 independent periods, ordered on an evidence-weighted median: each stock's median is pulled toward the S&P 500 typical value in proportion to its uncertainty, so a lucky handful of events cannot top the list. Confidence counts independent holding periods (overlapping ones count once): High 20+, Medium 8+, Low 3+. Median and average gain over the next month from the entry close; Up = share of events followed by a gain; vs SPY = median gain minus SPY over the same sessions. Ranks on the stock pages place each stock among the S&P 500 stocks. Small samples are noisy, and the past does not repeat on schedule. Not advice.