PGR
Underperforming without a clear catalyst yet
- PGR −0.31% on the last session vs SPY +0.74%: −1.0 pts of stock-specific move.
- Aftermath, crossed above 200-day avg (Sep 28): After its 7 crosses above the 200-day average in the past 5 years, PGR typically gained 0.5% over the next day (median) and was higher 57% of the time; half the outcomes fell between -0.7% and +1.1%. An ordinary day: +0.1%. Among S&P 500 stocks after crosses above the 200-day average, that ranks #119 of 497. (Low confidence: few independent periods.)
- Market backdrop (Fri): Average Hourly Earnings m/m 0.1% vs 0.3% expected (cooler); Non-Farm Employment Change 29K vs 89K expected (weaker); S&P futures +0.41%, 10-year yield -5bp in the 30 minutes after.
After each kind of event
| Event | Events | 1 day | 1 week | 1 month | 1 quarter |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Any day | 1,255 | +0.1%#73 H | +0.5%#66 H | +1.3%#141 H | +5.6%#76 M |
| Big drop (-1.9% or worse) | 66 | +0.2%#198 H | +0.8%#31 H | +0.8%#410 H | -0.6%#433 M |
| Big gain Sep 28 (+1.8% or better) | 62 | -0.1%#407 H | +0.6%#131 H | +0.7%#392 H | +1.7%#314 M |
| Earnings beat | 11 | +0.3%#98 M | +0.7%#98 M | +3.8%#10 M | +4.4%#159 M |
| Earnings miss | 9 | -1.7%#230 M | -1.3%#262 M | +3.1%#6 M | +2.2%#125 M |
| 52-week high | 16 | +0.3%#86 M | +0.2%#197 M | +2.0%#65 M | +9.0%#7 M |
| 52-week low | 2 | -0.5%– | +2.7%– | +6.6%– | +5.2%– |
| Crossed above 200-day avg Sep 28 | 7 | +0.5%#119 L | -1.3%#392 L | -3.2%#462 L | -4.0%#403 L |
| Crossed below 200-day avg | 7 | +0.3%#215 L | +0.5%#232 L | +0.9%#251 L | +2.9%#248 L |
| RSI oversold | 4 | +1.4%#4 L | +4.0%#125 L | +2.6%#201 L | +1.0%#371 L |
| RSI overbought | 13 | +0.2%#156 M | +1.3%#5 M | +3.7%#110 M | +8.5%#14 M |
| Reddit spike | — | — | — | — | — |
| Analyst upgrade | — | — | — | — | — |
| Analyst downgrade | — | — | — | — | — |
| Insider buy | — | — | — | — | — |
| Insider unplanned sale | — | — | — | — | — |
Median gain from the close of the session the event was known, over each holding period; #rank among the S&P 500 stocks after the same kind of event (#1 = best). "Big" is PGR's own: its worst / best 10% of days over the prior 2 years. Highlighted: happening in the latest session.
Earnings beat
EPS above the consensus; entry at the close of the session that first traded on it.
| Holding | Events | Median (likely range) | Confidence | Rank | Up | vs SPY | Range of outcomes (worst · 25–75% · median · best) | vs S&P 500 stocks (their medians) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 day | 11 | +0.33% (0.0 to +1.1) | Medium | #98 of 497 | 73% | +0.50% |
-2%
+5%
|
|
| 1 week | 11 | +0.74% (+0.3 to +1.7) | Medium | #98 of 497 | 73% | -0.76% |
-3%
+5%
|
|
| 1 month | 11 | +3.76% (+1.8 to +4.7) | Medium | #10 of 497 | 82% | +1.79% |
-2%
+14%
|
|
| 1 quarter | 10 | +4.42% (-1.1 to +13.6) | Medium | #159 of 497 | 60% | -3.14% |
-6%
+20%
|
Range of outcomes: all of PGR's earnings beats in the past 5 years, from the worst to the best result over each holding period; the box holds the middle half, the tick is the median. A wide box means the median alone says little. Hover the median for the average.
Earnings beat by trend
| When it happened | Events | 1 day | 1 week | 1 month | 1 quarter |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Long trendAbove its 200-day avg now | 6 | +1.1%L vs +0.1% | +1.5%L vs +0.7% | +6.0%L vs +1.9% | +14.0%L vs +7.1% |
| Below its 200-day avg | 4 | +0.3%L vs +0.1% | +0.1%L vs +0.4% | +1.1%L vs +0.2% | -2.4%L vs -0.8% |
| Medium trendAbove its 50-day avg | 8 | +0.5%M vs 0.0% | +1.4%M vs +0.1% | +4.4%M vs +0.6% | +10.1%M vs +5.2% |
| Below its 50-day avg now | 3 | +0.3%L vs +0.2% | +0.4%L vs +0.8% | +1.8%L vs +2.1% | -0.1%– vs +4.5% |
| Short trendAbove its 20-day avg | 7 | 0.0%L vs 0.0% | +0.7%L vs +0.2% | +3.8%L vs +0.7% | +2.3%L vs +6.3% |
| Below its 20-day avg now | 4 | +0.8%L vs +0.2% | +1.6%L vs +0.9% | +3.0%L vs +2.0% | +6.5%L vs +3.9% |
The same event split by where PGR stood against its 200-, 50- and 20-day averages when it happened (a dip in an uptrend vs a falling knife); "vs" is the plain any-day median in that trend; "now" marks where it stands today. Splitting halves the evidence, so watch the confidence letters: H / M / L.
Latest earnings beats
| Event | Entry | 1 day | 1 week | 1 month | 1 quarter | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 15, 2026 | Jul 15 @ $205.12 | 2Q2026 · EPS +$0.02 (+0.3%) vs consensus · -9.4% reaction | +0.3% | -0.3% | +1.8% | … |
| Apr 15, 2026 | Apr 15 @ $201.04 | 1Q2026 · EPS +$0.08 (+1.6%) vs consensus · +2.4% reaction | +1.1% | +0.7% | -2.2% | +2.3% |
| Jan 28, 2026 | Jan 28 @ $212.43 | 4Q2025 · EPS +$0.24 (+5.3%) vs consensus · +2.2% reaction | -2.1% | -3.4% | +0.4% | -5.6% |
| Jul 16, 2025 | Jul 16 @ $231.31 | EPS +$0.45 (+10.2%) vs consensus · +1.8% reaction | +0.3% | +0.4% | +1.8% | -2.4% |
| Jan 28, 2025 | Jan 29 @ $231.08 | EPS +$0.52 (+14.6%) vs consensus · +0.6% reaction | +1.1% | +1.1% | +14.4% | +14.4% |
| Jul 16, 2024 | Jul 16 @ $193.15 | EPS +$0.64 (+31.8%) vs consensus · -3.3% reaction | +5.4% | +2.8% | +11.6% | +20.0% |
| Apr 12, 2024 | Apr 12 @ $187.45 | EPS +$0.55 (+17.1%) vs consensus · +0.8% reaction | +1.3% | +5.3% | +4.2% | +6.5% |
| Jan 24, 2024 | Jan 24 @ $163.89 | EPS +$0.54 (+22.2%) vs consensus · +4.7% reaction | -0.2% | -0.1% | +7.3% | +19.0% |
| Oct 31, 2023 | Oct 31 @ $144.54 | EPS +$0.40 (+23.4%) vs consensus · +1.9% reaction | +1.0% | +0.3% | +3.8% | +13.6% |
| Jan 25, 2023 | Jan 25 @ $123.59 | EPS +$0.08 (+5.6%) vs consensus · +4.9% reaction | -0.4% | +1.9% | +4.7% | -1.1% |
| Jan 26, 2022 | Jan 26 @ $97.87 | EPS +$0.06 (+5.9%) vs consensus · -1.5% reaction | 0.0% | +1.7% | -0.4% | -0.5% |
Aftermath: entry is the close of the first session the event was fully known (the same session for price moves, the reaction session for earnings, the next session for Reddit, analyst and insider events, which are dated by day). Repeats within a few sessions count as one event. Past performance after an event says nothing certain about the next one. Not advice.