Aftermath
After an earnings beat, over the next week
EPS above the consensus; entry at the close of the session that first traded on it. Each stock's median gain after its own events of this kind in the past 5 years, from the close of the session the event was known. Updated .
The typical S&P 500 stock gained +0.35% over the next week after an earnings beat (half of them between -0.40% and +1.26%), against +0.27% on any day.
Latest earnings beats, last few sessions
| Entry | Stock | Its median, 1 week | Confidence | Rank | Up | Events | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 2 | NKE Nike, Inc. | 1Q2027 · EPS +$0.04 (+9.9%) vs consensus · -3.6% reaction | +0.09% | Medium | #326 of 497 | 50% | 18 |
| Oct 1 | ACN Accenture | 4Q2026 · EPS +$0.11 (+3.4%) vs consensus · +15.8% reaction | +0.64% | Medium | #111 of 497 | 75% | 16 |
| Oct 1 | MKC McCormick & Company | 3Q2026 · EPS +$0.10 (+13.8%) vs consensus · -4.9% reaction | +0.68% | Medium | #210 of 497 | 71% | 14 |
| Oct 1 | MU Micron Technology | 4Q2026 · EPS +$1.60 (+5.0%) vs consensus · +3.0% reaction | -0.03% | Medium | #245 of 497 | 47% | 17 |
| Sep 30 | FDS FactSet | 4Q2026 · EPS +$0.17 (+4.0%) vs consensus · +3.8% reaction | +0.09% | Medium | #271 of 497 | 50% | 14 |
| Sep 30 | JBL Jabil | 4Q2026 · EPS +$0.32 (+8.0%) vs consensus · -10.0% reaction | +2.68% | Medium | #67 of 497 | 61% | 18 |
| Sep 29 | CCL Carnival Corporation | 3Q2026 · EPS +$0.08 (+5.9%) vs consensus · +13.4% reaction | -1.46% | Medium | #400 of 497 | 27% | 15 |
Best after an earnings beat
| # | Stock | Median (likely range) | Confidence | Average | Up | vs SPY | Worst · best | Events |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ERIE Erie Indemnity | +4.36%+2.9 to +4.9 | Medium | +5.29% | 92% | +5.03% | -3% · +25% | 12 |
| 2 | CL Colgate-Palmolive | +2.05%+1.0 to +2.2 | Medium | +1.22% | 82% | +0.74% | -4% · +5% | 17 |
| 3 | LVS Las Vegas Sands | +3.35%+3.2 to +4.3 | Medium | +3.18% | 89% | +2.42% | -1% · +8% | 9 |
| 4 | HIG Hartford (The) | +2.01%+1.0 to +2.4 | Medium | +2.13% | 81% | +2.74% | -2% · +6% | 16 |
| 5 | WFC Wells Fargo | +3.36%+1.8 to +4.5 | Medium | +2.79% | 78% | +3.00% | -8% · +11% | 18 |
| 6 | APH Amphenol | +2.50%+1.1 to +3.4 | High | +1.93% | 75% | +1.01% | -11% · +15% | 20 |
| 7 | KLAC KLA Corporation | +2.01%+0.8 to +3.0 | High | +2.72% | 75% | +0.99% | -3% · +15% | 20 |
| 8 | FTV Fortive | +2.01%+1.9 to +3.0 | Medium | +2.02% | 71% | +1.15% | -2% · +5% | 17 |
| 9 | EFX Equifax | +3.03%+1.7 to +3.7 | Medium | +1.80% | 74% | +2.62% | -11% · +11% | 19 |
| 10 | LLY Lilly (Eli) | +4.15%+1.9 to +4.3 | Medium | +3.30% | 79% | +4.30% | -8% · +11% | 14 |
| 11 | IFF International Flavors & … | +2.32%+0.5 to +2.7 | Medium | +1.61% | 71% | +0.66% | -7% · +7% | 14 |
| 12 | FTNT Fortinet | +2.99%+1.2 to +3.8 | High | +3.27% | 80% | +0.57% | -6% · +18% | 20 |
| 13 | HWM Howmet Aerospace | +1.66%+1.0 to +3.0 | Medium | +1.76% | 72% | +1.73% | -5% · +6% | 18 |
| 14 | WELL Welltower | +2.07%+0.8 to +2.3 | Medium | +0.76% | 69% | -0.65% | -4% · +3% | 13 |
| 15 | CTAS Cintas | +1.61%+0.4 to +2.2 | Medium | +1.34% | 74% | +0.69% | -3% · +8% | 19 |
| 16 | TFC Truist Financial | +1.09%+0.3 to +1.6 | Medium | +0.82% | 73% | +0.33% | -6% · +5% | 15 |
| 17 | CBOE Cboe Global Markets | +1.28%+0.6 to +1.9 | Medium | +0.32% | 78% | +1.86% | -10% · +7% | 18 |
| 18 | IR Ingersoll Rand | +1.75%+1.4 to +2.2 | Medium | +1.76% | 75% | +1.12% | -6% · +9% | 16 |
| 19 | ABBV AbbVie | +1.77%+0.5 to +2.2 | Medium | +1.56% | 75% | +1.31% | -4% · +7% | 16 |
| 20 | PH Parker Hannifin | +2.03%+0.7 to +3.0 | High | +1.87% | 70% | +0.82% | -5% · +9% | 20 |
| 21 | UHS Universal Health Services | +1.64%+1.2 to +2.3 | Medium | +1.37% | 75% | +2.45% | -8% · +9% | 16 |
| 22 | GD General Dynamics | +1.23%+0.3 to +1.6 | Medium | +0.92% | 71% | -1.06% | -2% · +5% | 17 |
| 23 | GEN Gen Digital | +2.68%+0.5 to +3.1 | Medium | +1.54% | 69% | +1.56% | -3% · +7% | 13 |
| 24 | GDDY GoDaddy | +4.15%+3.1 to +6.3 | Medium | +4.26% | 80% | +2.56% | -5% · +12% | 15 |
| 25 | TRGP Targa Resources | +2.73%+0.8 to +3.7 | Medium | +2.56% | 77% | +1.73% | -1% · +9% | 13 |
Worst after an earnings beat
| # | Stock | Median (likely range) | Confidence | Average | Up | vs SPY | Worst · best | Events |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | GEHC GE HealthCare | -2.31%-2.4 to -2.1 | Medium | -1.61% | 23% | -2.08% | -6% · +6% | 13 |
| 2 | HST Host Hotels & … | -2.60%-2.8 to -0.6 | Medium | -1.11% | 18% | -1.02% | -5% · +8% | 17 |
| 3 | MRSH Marsh McLennan | -0.17%-0.4 to +0.4 | High | +0.13% | 40% | -0.59% | -5% · +6% | 20 |
| 4 | T AT&T | -0.85%-0.9 to -0.2 | Medium | +0.67% | 38% | -0.94% | -4% · +13% | 16 |
| 5 | BALL Ball Corporation | -0.93%-1.5 to -0.4 | Medium | -0.09% | 31% | -2.33% | -4% · +10% | 13 |
| 6 | PPG PPG Industries | -1.22%-1.9 to -0.3 | Medium | -0.43% | 36% | -1.16% | -4% · +7% | 14 |
| 7 | MS Morgan Stanley | -1.03%-1.7 to -0.3 | Medium | -0.74% | 29% | -0.60% | -6% · +5% | 17 |
| 8 | MCO Moody's Corporation | -1.32%-1.5 to -0.1 | Medium | -0.29% | 33% | -1.47% | -5% · +7% | 15 |
| 9 | MTD Mettler Toledo | -1.63%-2.8 to -0.1 | Medium | -1.40% | 33% | -1.06% | -10% · +14% | 18 |
| 10 | ETR Entergy | -0.87%-1.5 to -0.8 | Medium | -0.99% | 36% | -1.01% | -6% · +2% | 14 |
| 11 | AEE Ameren | -0.70%-1.7 to -0.3 | Medium | -0.58% | 31% | -2.30% | -3% · +3% | 13 |
| 12 | BLK BlackRock | -0.95%-1.8 to -0.7 | Medium | -0.48% | 38% | -0.49% | -5% · +5% | 16 |
| 13 | RVTY Revvity | -3.67%-4.3 to -2.1 | Medium | -1.78% | 33% | -3.28% | -10% · +12% | 18 |
| 14 | XEL Xcel Energy | -1.61%-2.2 to +0.8 | Low | -0.95% | 29% | -1.87% | -3% · +1% | 7 |
| 15 | IBM IBM | -1.21%-1.9 to 0.0 | Medium | -0.12% | 35% | -2.08% | -6% · +9% | 17 |
| 16 | ROST Ross Stores | -0.67%-1.5 to -0.1 | Medium | -0.30% | 33% | -0.44% | -7% · +8% | 18 |
| 17 | FCX Freeport-McMoRan | -3.24%-4.3 to -0.8 | Medium | -2.12% | 24% | -3.03% | -13% · +11% | 17 |
| 18 | DGX Quest Diagnostics | -0.48%-1.0 to +0.4 | High | -0.36% | 45% | -0.93% | -6% · +6% | 20 |
| 19 | SPGI S&P Global | -1.17%-2.2 to +0.4 | Medium | -0.77% | 36% | -0.64% | -3% · +3% | 14 |
| 20 | ARE Alexandria Real Estate … | -1.75%-3.0 to -1.4 | Medium | -1.97% | 20% | -2.15% | -14% · +8% | 10 |
| 21 | DPZ Domino's | -1.03%-1.8 to -0.8 | Medium | -0.09% | 27% | -0.11% | -3% · +5% | 11 |
| 22 | V Visa Inc. | -0.05%-0.6 to +0.2 | Medium | -0.08% | 47% | -1.36% | -5% · +6% | 19 |
| 23 | KMB Kimberly-Clark | -0.72%-2.4 to +0.1 | Medium | -1.69% | 44% | -2.34% | -16% · +4% | 16 |
| 24 | LH Labcorp | -0.36%-1.2 to 0.0 | Medium | -0.55% | 44% | -1.58% | -7% · +5% | 16 |
| 25 | JBHT J.B. Hunt | -0.98%-1.7 to +0.4 | Medium | +0.35% | 42% | -0.58% | -3% · +7% | 12 |
Stocks with at least 3 independent periods, ordered on an evidence-weighted median: each stock's median is pulled toward the S&P 500 typical value in proportion to its uncertainty, so a lucky handful of events cannot top the list. Confidence counts independent holding periods (overlapping ones count once): High 20+, Medium 8+, Low 3+. Median and average gain over the next week from the entry close; Up = share of events followed by a gain; vs SPY = median gain minus SPY over the same sessions. Ranks on the stock pages place each stock among the S&P 500 stocks. Small samples are noisy, and the past does not repeat on schedule. Not advice.