IBM
Underperforming without a clear catalyst yet
- IBM −1.32% on the last session vs SPY +0.74%: −2.1 pts of stock-specific move.
- Aftermath, big gain (Oct 1): After its 70 big gains in the past 5 years, IBM typically gained 2.2% over the next month (median) and was higher 61% of the time; half the outcomes fell between -3.3% and +8.6%. An ordinary month: +1.5%. Among S&P 500 stocks after big gains, that ranks #166 of 500.
- Market backdrop (Fri): Average Hourly Earnings m/m 0.1% vs 0.3% expected (cooler); Non-Farm Employment Change 29K vs 89K expected (weaker); S&P futures +0.41%, 10-year yield -5bp in the 30 minutes after.
After each kind of event
| Event | Events | 1 day | 1 week | 1 month | 1 quarter |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Any day | 1,255 | +0.1%#61 H | +0.5%#96 H | +1.5%#131 H | +6.1%#54 M |
| Big drop Sep 28 (-2.1% or worse) | 72 | -0.1%#427 H | +0.2%#393 H | +1.9%#175 H | +6.6%#99 M |
| Big gain Oct 1 (+2.2% or better) | 72 | +0.1%#270 H | +0.6%#182 H | +2.2%#166 H | +5.3%#184 M |
| Earnings beat | 17 | -0.5%#486 M | -1.2%#483 M | +2.9%#44 M | +4.5%#103 M |
| Earnings miss | 2 | +0.5%– | -0.5%– | -3.4%– | -5.7%– |
| 52-week high | 15 | +0.4%#38 M | -0.7%#319 M | +1.0%#219 M | -1.6%#310 M |
| 52-week low | 2 | +0.8%– | -0.6%– | +19.2%– | +8.4%– |
| Crossed above 200-day avg | 6 | +1.0%#126 L | +1.8%#114 L | +4.0%#189 L | +12.3%#93 L |
| Crossed below 200-day avg | 7 | +0.8%#161 L | -1.1%#426 L | -5.8%#358 L | -1.9%#316 L |
| RSI oversold | 12 | +0.9%#65 M | 0.0%#369 M | +6.8%#25 M | +14.5%#5 M |
| RSI overbought | 24 | +0.4%#6 H | +0.7%#73 H | +1.1%#185 H | -0.4%#338 M |
| Mention spike (Trendy) | 12 | +0.5%#30 M | +4.8%#19 M | +4.3%#31 M | -0.7%#57 M |
| Analyst upgrade | 4 | -1.3%#15 L | +3.1%#5 L | -3.3%#10 L | -6.2%#8 L |
| Analyst downgrade | 1 | +3.7%– | -2.6%– | +13.1%– | — |
| Insider buy | 3 | -0.7%– | +6.0%– | -2.3%– | +10.0%– |
| Insider unplanned sale | 1 | -1.1%– | -0.8%– | -6.0%– | — |
Median gain from the close of the session the event was known, over each holding period; #rank among the S&P 500 stocks after the same kind of event (#1 = best). "Big" is IBM's own: its worst / best 10% of days over the prior 2 years. Highlighted: happening in the latest session.
Earnings beat
EPS above the consensus; entry at the close of the session that first traded on it.
| Holding | Events | Median (likely range) | Confidence | Rank | Up | vs SPY | Range of outcomes (worst · 25–75% · median · best) | vs S&P 500 stocks (their medians) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 day | 17 | -0.50% (-1.0 to -0.1) | Medium | #486 of 497 | 29% | -0.58% |
-2%
+8%
|
|
| 1 week | 17 | -1.21% (-1.9 to 0.0) | Medium | #483 of 497 | 35% | -2.08% |
-6%
+9%
|
|
| 1 month | 17 | +2.90% (+2.1 to +3.4) | Medium | #44 of 497 | 65% | -0.72% |
-22%
+16%
|
|
| 1 quarter | 17 | +4.55% (+1.3 to +11.1) | Medium | #103 of 497 | 71% | +1.26% |
-25%
+32%
|
Range of outcomes: all of IBM's earnings beats in the past 5 years, from the worst to the best result over each holding period; the box holds the middle half, the tick is the median. A wide box means the median alone says little. Hover the median for the average.
Earnings beat by trend
| When it happened | Events | 1 day | 1 week | 1 month | 1 quarter |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Long trendAbove its 200-day avg | 11 | -0.8%M vs +0.1% | -1.9%M vs +0.6% | +2.9%M vs +1.2% | +4.5%M vs +5.8% |
| Below its 200-day avg now | 3 | +0.4%L vs +0.1% | +0.5%L vs +0.5% | +10.7%L vs +2.4% | +11.5%L vs +11.3% |
| Medium trendAbove its 50-day avg | 10 | -0.8%M vs +0.2% | -0.8%M vs +0.4% | +3.0%M vs +0.9% | +3.2%M vs +1.5% |
| Below its 50-day avg now | 6 | -0.4%L vs +0.1% | -1.1%L vs +0.6% | +4.4%L vs +2.3% | +11.3%L vs +12.7% |
| Short trendAbove its 20-day avg | 9 | -0.8%M vs +0.2% | -0.4%M vs +0.6% | +3.0%M vs +1.7% | +2.3%M vs +2.7% |
| Below its 20-day avg now | 7 | -0.5%L vs +0.1% | -2.1%L vs +0.4% | +2.9%L vs +1.7% | +11.1%L vs +9.9% |
The same event split by where IBM stood against its 200-, 50- and 20-day averages when it happened (a dip in an uptrend vs a falling knife); "vs" is the plain any-day median in that trend; "now" marks where it stands today. Splitting halves the evidence, so watch the confidence letters: H / M / L.
Latest earnings beats
| Event | Entry | 1 day | 1 week | 1 month | 1 quarter | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 22, 2026 | Apr 23 @ $227.76 | 1Q2026 · EPS +$0.10 (+5.5%) vs consensus · -8.2% reaction | +0.4% | 0.0% | +10.7% | -6.6% |
| Jan 28, 2026 | Jan 29 @ $303.07 | 4Q2025 · EPS +$0.23 (+5.3%) vs consensus · +5.1% reaction | -0.8% | -6.3% | -22.2% | -24.9% |
| Oct 22, 2025 | Oct 23 @ $277.78 | 3Q2025 · EPS +$0.20 (+8.3%) vs consensus · -0.9% reaction | +7.9% | +8.8% | +4.9% | +4.5% |
| Jul 23, 2025 | Jul 24 @ $252.20 | EPS +$0.15 (+5.7%) vs consensus · -7.6% reaction | -0.3% | -2.8% | -6.4% | +11.1% |
| Apr 23, 2025 | Apr 24 @ $220.55 | EPS +$0.17 (+11.9%) vs consensus · -6.6% reaction | +1.3% | +4.5% | +13.5% | +14.0% |
| Jan 29, 2025 | Jan 30 @ $246.74 | EPS +$0.14 (+3.7%) vs consensus · +13.0% reaction | -1.0% | -1.9% | -2.5% | -6.6% |
| Oct 23, 2024 | Oct 24 @ $207.01 | EPS +$0.07 (+3.1%) vs consensus · -6.2% reaction | -1.7% | -5.3% | +2.9% | +4.1% |
| Jul 24, 2024 | Jul 25 @ $180.40 | EPS +$0.26 (+12.0%) vs consensus · +4.3% reaction | -0.1% | -1.2% | +3.0% | +22.3% |
| Apr 24, 2024 | Apr 25 @ $157.16 | EPS +$0.08 (+5.0%) vs consensus · -8.2% reaction | -1.1% | -2.5% | +2.2% | +14.6% |
| Jan 24, 2024 | Jan 25 @ $175.58 | EPS +$0.07 (+1.8%) vs consensus · +9.5% reaction | -1.6% | -1.9% | -2.4% | -10.5% |
| Oct 25, 2023 | Oct 26 @ $131.06 | EPS +$0.07 (+3.3%) vs consensus · +4.9% reaction | -0.9% | +2.3% | +9.4% | +31.7% |
| Jul 19, 2023 | Jul 20 @ $124.72 | EPS +$0.18 (+9.0%) vs consensus · +2.1% reaction | +0.4% | +3.3% | +3.4% | +2.3% |
| Apr 19, 2023 | Apr 20 @ $112.36 | EPS +$0.12 (+9.7%) vs consensus · +0.0% reaction | -0.5% | +0.5% | +2.1% | +11.5% |
| Oct 19, 2022 | Oct 20 @ $111.37 | EPS +$0.01 (+0.6%) vs consensus · +4.7% reaction | +1.2% | +5.0% | +16.4% | +11.9% |
| Jul 18, 2022 | Jul 19 @ $112.20 | EPS +$0.02 (+0.9%) vs consensus · -5.2% reaction | -1.3% | -2.1% | +6.6% | -6.0% |
Aftermath: entry is the close of the first session the event was fully known (the same session for price moves, the reaction session for earnings, the next session for Reddit, analyst and insider events, which are dated by day). Repeats within a few sessions count as one event. Past performance after an event says nothing certain about the next one. Not advice.