Aftermath
After crossing below the 200-day average, over the next week
The close moves below its 200-day moving average. Each stock's median gain after its own events of this kind in the past 5 years, from the close of the session the event was known. Updated .
The typical S&P 500 stock gained +0.36% over the next week after crossing below the 200-day average (half of them between -0.71% and +1.26%), against +0.27% on any day.
Latest crosses below the 200-day average, last few sessions
| Entry | Stock | Its median, 1 week | Confidence | Rank | Up | Events | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 2 | CTSH Cognizant | -3.9% on the day | +0.09% | Low | #309 of 497 | 57% | 7 |
| Oct 2 | PTC PTC Inc. | -1.7% on the day | +0.37% | Low | #239 of 497 | 71% | 7 |
| Oct 2 | SW Smurfit Westrock | -1.2% on the day | -0.99% | Medium | #355 of 497 | 36% | 14 |
| Oct 1 | EL Estée Lauder Companies … | -2.8% on the day | +1.18% | Low | #215 of 497 | 67% | 6 |
| Oct 1 | KVUE Kenvue | -2.5% on the day | -2.26% | Low | #478 of 497 | 29% | 7 |
| Oct 1 | VTR Ventas | -1.5% on the day | -1.05% | Medium | #381 of 497 | 38% | 8 |
| Sep 30 | ALL Allstate | -1.6% on the day | +2.72% | Medium | #24 of 497 | 70% | 10 |
| Sep 30 | BAC Bank of America | -1.0% on the day | -1.84% | Low | #427 of 497 | 29% | 7 |
| Sep 30 | CB Chubb Limited | -2.1% on the day | -0.64% | Medium | #444 of 497 | 36% | 11 |
| Sep 30 | GM General Motors | -4.3% on the day | +4.29% | Medium | #144 of 497 | 58% | 12 |
| Sep 30 | GNRC Generac | -2.5% on the day | -2.17% | Medium | #481 of 497 | 25% | 8 |
| Sep 30 | KHC Kraft Heinz | -3.1% on the day | +0.75% | Medium | #95 of 497 | 67% | 12 |
| Sep 30 | LQDA | -57.2% on the day | +1.10% | Medium | #199 of 497 | 60% | 10 |
| Sep 30 | MCHP Microchip Technology | -1.3% on the day | +3.48% | Medium | #106 of 497 | 64% | 11 |
| Sep 30 | MDLZ Mondelez International | -1.7% on the day | +1.87% | Medium | #16 of 497 | 69% | 13 |
| Sep 30 | MS Morgan Stanley | -2.4% on the day | -2.23% | Medium | #362 of 497 | 44% | 9 |
| Sep 30 | NSC Norfolk Southern | -1.3% on the day | +0.89% | Medium | #166 of 497 | 50% | 10 |
| Sep 30 | SCHW Charles Schwab Corporation | -1.4% on the day | -1.03% | Medium | #394 of 497 | 22% | 9 |
| Sep 29 | CFG Citizens Financial Group | -1.4% on the day | -1.03% | Low | #263 of 497 | 50% | 4 |
| Sep 29 | FITB Fifth Third Bancorp | -1.2% on the day | +0.97% | Low | #250 of 497 | 67% | 6 |
| Sep 29 | FOXA Fox Corporation (Class … | -0.9% on the day | +1.91% | Medium | #153 of 497 | 56% | 9 |
| Sep 29 | MDT Medtronic | -2.7% on the day | -0.98% | Medium | #460 of 497 | 36% | 11 |
| Sep 29 | SLB Schlumberger | -3.1% on the day | +1.77% | Medium | #33 of 497 | 75% | 8 |
| Sep 29 | T AT&T | -1.7% on the day | +1.42% | Medium | #26 of 497 | 62% | 8 |
| Sep 29 | TEL TE Connectivity | -1.0% on the day | -0.87% | Medium | #387 of 497 | 42% | 12 |
| Sep 28 | ARE Alexandria Real Estate … | -2.5% on the day | +0.99% | Medium | #143 of 497 | 56% | 9 |
| Sep 28 | AWK American Water Works | -1.5% on the day | +0.68% | Medium | #193 of 497 | 53% | 15 |
| Sep 28 | CDW CDW Corporation | -3.8% on the day | -0.71% | Medium | #383 of 497 | 30% | 10 |
| Sep 28 | CTVA Corteva | -1.0% on the day | +3.99% | Medium | #5 of 497 | 90% | 10 |
| Sep 28 | DLR Digital Realty | -0.8% on the day | -2.11% | Low | #436 of 497 | 33% | 6 |
| Sep 28 | MNST Monster Beverage | -2.9% on the day | -0.13% | Medium | #311 of 497 | 44% | 9 |
Best after crossing below the 200-day average
| # | Stock | Median (likely range) | Confidence | Average | Up | vs SPY | Worst · best | Events |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ITW Illinois Tool Works | +1.44%+0.9 to +1.8 | Medium | +1.71% | 79% | +0.76% | -2% · +8% | 14 |
| 2 | DE Deere & Company | +2.80%+2.2 to +3.5 | Medium | +3.29% | 92% | +1.48% | -2% · +12% | 13 |
| 3 | FIS Fidelity National Information … | +2.14%+2.1 to +2.9 | Low | +2.34% | 100% | +1.50% | 0% · +4% | 5 |
| 4 | MA Mastercard | +4.04%+3.1 to +4.2 | Low | +3.03% | 86% | +0.55% | -3% · +5% | 7 |
| 5 | CTVA Corteva | +3.99%+2.7 to +6.3 | Medium | +4.60% | 90% | +3.78% | -2% · +11% | 10 |
| 6 | BRK-B Berkshire Hathaway | +1.84%+0.3 to +1.9 | Medium | +1.15% | 78% | +2.10% | -2% · +4% | 9 |
| 7 | YUM Yum! Brands | +1.06%+0.5 to +1.5 | Medium | +1.14% | 73% | +0.54% | -2% · +6% | 15 |
| 8 | BBY Best Buy | +3.70%+0.8 to +3.9 | Medium | +3.20% | 90% | +1.41% | -4% · +13% | 10 |
| 9 | MTB M&T Bank | +1.18%-0.1 to +1.7 | Medium | +1.08% | 70% | +0.23% | -4% · +5% | 10 |
| 10 | REG Regency Centers | +1.01%0.0 to +1.2 | Medium | +0.70% | 67% | +0.57% | -3% · +4% | 18 |
| 11 | TXT Textron | +1.98%-0.1 to +2.3 | Medium | +1.37% | 67% | -0.89% | -1% · +4% | 9 |
| 12 | BKR Baker Hughes | +2.09%+0.7 to +3.2 | Medium | +2.26% | 75% | -0.23% | -2% · +7% | 12 |
| 13 | TECH Bio-Techne | +1.87%+0.4 to +2.5 | Medium | +2.86% | 77% | -0.38% | -9% · +27% | 13 |
| 14 | HIG Hartford (The) | +2.20%+0.7 to +3.0 | Medium | +1.83% | 80% | +1.38% | -6% · +7% | 15 |
| 15 | TRGP Targa Resources | +1.06%+0.4 to +1.5 | Medium | +2.53% | 88% | +0.81% | -1% · +13% | 8 |
| 16 | MDLZ Mondelez International | +1.87%+0.4 to +2.2 | Medium | +1.20% | 69% | +0.04% | -3% · +5% | 13 |
| 17 | JKHY Jack Henry & … | +1.23%+0.1 to +1.8 | Medium | +0.83% | 71% | +1.14% | -2% · +4% | 14 |
| 18 | SO Southern Company | +1.35%+0.8 to +2.4 | Medium | +1.77% | 85% | +1.92% | -5% · +8% | 13 |
| 19 | WTW Willis Towers Watson | +1.74%-0.4 to +2.8 | Medium | +1.57% | 64% | +1.71% | -4% · +9% | 11 |
| 20 | OXY Occidental Petroleum | +1.73%+0.6 to +2.3 | Medium | +1.81% | 71% | +0.99% | -8% · +10% | 14 |
| 21 | VRTX Vertex Pharmaceuticals | +1.94%+0.7 to +3.6 | Medium | +2.35% | 89% | +0.93% | -4% · +10% | 9 |
| 22 | LII Lennox International | +2.40%+0.7 to +3.9 | Medium | +2.04% | 80% | +0.53% | -4% · +8% | 10 |
| 23 | INTU Intuit | +1.72%+0.1 to +2.3 | Medium | +1.40% | 73% | +0.98% | -6% · +10% | 11 |
| 24 | BLGO meme | +4.55%0.0 to +4.8 | Medium | +4.42% | 67% | +3.23% | -5% · +17% | 9 |
| 25 | ALL Allstate | +2.72%-0.2 to +3.6 | Medium | +2.23% | 70% | +0.59% | -5% · +8% | 10 |
Worst after crossing below the 200-day average
| # | Stock | Median (likely range) | Confidence | Average | Up | vs SPY | Worst · best | Events |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | BALL Ball Corporation | -3.69%-4.7 to -2.8 | Medium | -2.94% | 12% | -4.21% | -7% · +6% | 8 |
| 2 | JNJ Johnson & Johnson | -0.54%-0.8 to -0.1 | Medium | -0.48% | 29% | -1.71% | -2% · +2% | 14 |
| 3 | FERG Ferguson Enterprises | -3.39%-3.6 to -1.2 | Medium | -1.12% | 22% | -2.77% | -7% · +15% | 9 |
| 4 | AMGN Amgen | -1.18%-2.5 to -0.7 | Medium | -1.44% | 20% | -0.99% | -6% · +2% | 10 |
| 5 | CBRE CBRE Group | -1.02%-1.6 to -0.2 | Medium | -0.41% | 30% | -0.41% | -2% · +3% | 10 |
| 6 | DLTR Dollar Tree | -0.95%-1.4 to -0.2 | Medium | -0.54% | 31% | -0.87% | -8% · +6% | 13 |
| 7 | FDS FactSet | -2.05%-3.0 to -0.7 | Medium | -1.82% | 23% | -2.20% | -7% · +3% | 13 |
| 8 | EXC Exelon | -1.05%-1.7 to -0.6 | Medium | -1.32% | 28% | -0.62% | -7% · +3% | 18 |
| 9 | HWM Howmet Aerospace | -2.96%-5.3 to -2.1 | Low | -3.45% | 0% | -0.73% | -5% · -2% | 3 |
| 10 | MAR Marriott International | -1.39%-2.2 to -0.2 | Medium | -1.46% | 27% | -1.49% | -6% · +1% | 11 |
| 11 | RSG Republic Services | -0.54%-0.9 to +0.1 | Medium | -0.28% | 33% | -1.13% | -3% · +4% | 9 |
| 12 | CCL Carnival Corporation | -3.49%-3.9 to -0.1 | Medium | -2.35% | 27% | -3.47% | -12% · +13% | 15 |
| 13 | C Citigroup | -1.46%-2.3 to -1.5 | Low | -0.60% | 33% | -2.12% | -3% · +5% | 6 |
| 14 | SYY Sysco | -1.43%-1.7 to +0.5 | Medium | +0.06% | 36% | -0.97% | -3% · +6% | 14 |
| 15 | A Agilent Technologies | -1.68%-1.9 to -0.9 | Medium | -0.60% | 31% | -1.76% | -5% · +6% | 13 |
| 16 | DAL Delta Air Lines | -2.65%-3.9 to -1.3 | Medium | -1.87% | 18% | -2.28% | -12% · +10% | 11 |
| 17 | GNRC Generac | -2.17%-4.4 to -1.2 | Medium | -0.73% | 25% | -3.22% | -6% · +10% | 8 |
| 18 | BDX Becton Dickinson | -0.60%-1.2 to 0.0 | Medium | -0.31% | 36% | -0.37% | -8% · +4% | 14 |
| 19 | DGX Quest Diagnostics | -1.61%-3.2 to -0.3 | Low | -2.04% | 14% | -1.37% | -7% · +1% | 7 |
| 20 | KVUE Kenvue | -2.26%-2.4 to +1.3 | Low | -1.25% | 29% | -1.24% | -3% · +2% | 7 |
| 21 | TXN Texas Instruments | -1.02%-1.1 to +1.0 | Medium | +0.58% | 41% | -0.48% | -4% · +11% | 17 |
| 22 | ZBH Zimmer Biomet | -0.68%-1.2 to +0.4 | Medium | -1.00% | 43% | -0.42% | -12% · +5% | 14 |
| 23 | MLM Martin Marietta Materials | -1.31%-2.7 to +0.3 | Medium | -0.10% | 33% | -2.80% | -4% · +11% | 9 |
| 24 | PG Procter & Gamble | -0.70%-0.9 to +0.7 | Medium | +0.05% | 44% | -1.01% | -4% · +5% | 16 |
| 25 | SBAC SBA Communications | -1.09%-2.8 to -0.5 | Medium | -1.13% | 20% | -1.36% | -6% · +4% | 10 |
Stocks with at least 3 independent periods, ordered on an evidence-weighted median: each stock's median is pulled toward the S&P 500 typical value in proportion to its uncertainty, so a lucky handful of events cannot top the list. Confidence counts independent holding periods (overlapping ones count once): High 20+, Medium 8+, Low 3+. Median and average gain over the next week from the entry close; Up = share of events followed by a gain; vs SPY = median gain minus SPY over the same sessions. Ranks on the stock pages place each stock among the S&P 500 stocks. Small samples are noisy, and the past does not repeat on schedule. Not advice.