NSC
Outperforming without a clear catalyst yet
- NSC +2.31% on the last session vs SPY +0.74%: +1.6 pts of stock-specific move.
- Aftermath, big gain (Oct 2): After its 59 big gains in the past 5 years, NSC typically gained 0.4% over the next week (median) and was higher 53% of the time; half the outcomes fell between -1.9% and +2.8%. An ordinary week: +0.3%. Among S&P 500 stocks after big gains, that ranks #263 of 500.
- Market backdrop (Fri): Average Hourly Earnings m/m 0.1% vs 0.3% expected (cooler); Non-Farm Employment Change 29K vs 89K expected (weaker); S&P futures +0.41%, 10-year yield -5bp in the 30 minutes after.
After each kind of event
| Event | Events | 1 day | 1 week | 1 month | 1 quarter |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Any day | 1,255 | +0.1%#148 H | +0.3%#248 H | +0.4%#316 H | +1.7%#276 M |
| Big drop (-1.4% or worse) | 48 | -0.1%#403 H | -0.2%#388 H | 0.0%#417 H | +4.1%#257 M |
| Big gain latest session (+1.7% or better) | 60 | 0.0%#380 H | +0.4%#263 H | +1.1%#300 H | +5.7%#107 M |
| Earnings beat | 14 | +0.4%#14 M | +0.5%#218 M | +0.3%#352 M | +3.1%#206 M |
| Earnings miss | 6 | +0.5%#20 L | +2.4%#14 L | +3.5%#104 L | -4.5%#206 L |
| 52-week high | 12 | 0.0%#291 M | -1.0%#427 M | -0.9%#476 M | -0.1%#332 L |
| 52-week low | 5 | -0.3%#159 L | +5.3%#8 L | +9.3%#32 L | +25.9%#2 L |
| Crossed above 200-day avg Oct 1 | 12 | +0.4%#85 M | -0.3%#441 M | +3.4%#110 M | +4.2%#230 M |
| Crossed below 200-day avg Sep 30 | 11 | +0.1%#262 M | +0.9%#166 M | +2.6%#184 M | +2.1%#282 M |
| RSI oversold | 11 | +0.4%#148 M | -0.6%#407 M | -2.9%#436 M | +10.8%#31 M |
| RSI overbought | 14 | 0.0%#235 M | +0.3%#69 M | -1.3%#487 M | +3.1%#157 M |
| Reddit spike | — | — | — | — | — |
| Analyst upgrade | — | — | — | — | — |
| Analyst downgrade | — | — | — | — | — |
| Insider buy | — | — | — | — | — |
| Insider unplanned sale | — | — | — | — | — |
Median gain from the close of the session the event was known, over each holding period; #rank among the S&P 500 stocks after the same kind of event (#1 = best). "Big" is NSC's own: its worst / best 10% of days over the prior 2 years. Highlighted: happening in the latest session.
Crossed below 200-day avg
The close moves below its 200-day moving average.
| Holding | Events | Median (likely range) | Confidence | Rank | Up | vs SPY | Range of outcomes (worst · 25–75% · median · best) | vs S&P 500 stocks (their medians) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 day | 11 | +0.05% (-0.3 to +0.2) | Medium | #262 of 497 | 55% | +0.05% |
-3%
+2%
|
|
| 1 week | 10 | +0.89% (-0.5 to +2.9) | Medium | #166 of 497 | 50% | +2.60% |
-4%
+11%
|
|
| 1 month | 10 | +2.64% (-5.8 to +5.9) | Medium | #184 of 496 | 60% | +1.74% |
-10%
+9%
|
|
| 1 quarter | 10 | +2.10% (-12.4 to +8.3) | Medium | #282 of 493 | 50% | +1.00% |
-15%
+19%
|
Range of outcomes: all of NSC's crosses below the 200-day average in the past 5 years, from the worst to the best result over each holding period; the box holds the middle half, the tick is the median. A wide box means the median alone says little. Hover the median for the average.
Crossed below 200-day avg by trend
| When it happened | Events | 1 day | 1 week | 1 month | 1 quarter |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Medium trendAbove its 50-day avg | 5 | +0.1%L vs +0.1% | +2.9%L vs +0.3% | +5.2%L vs +0.1% | -1.9%L vs -0.8% |
| Below its 50-day avg now | 6 | -0.1%L vs +0.1% | -0.3%L vs +0.2% | 0.0%L vs +0.5% | +4.6%L vs +6.9% |
| Short trendAbove its 20-day avg now | 3 | +0.1%L vs +0.1% | +2.9%L vs +0.4% | +7.2%L vs +0.8% | +11.3%L vs +0.3% |
| Below its 20-day avg | 8 | -0.1%M vs 0.0% | -0.3%L vs -0.2% | 0.0%L vs 0.0% | -0.4%L vs +3.3% |
The same event split by where NSC stood against its 200-, 50- and 20-day averages when it happened (a dip in an uptrend vs a falling knife); "vs" is the plain any-day median in that trend; "now" marks where it stands today. Splitting halves the evidence, so watch the confidence letters: H / M / L.
Latest crosses below the 200-day average
| Event | Entry | 1 day | 1 week | 1 month | 1 quarter | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 30, 2026 | Sep 30 @ $309.00 | -1.3% on the day | +0.4% | … | … | … |
| Mar 19, 2026 | Mar 19 @ $275.90 | -2.2% on the day | +1.0% | +1.8% | +9.3% | +8.3% |
| May 21, 2025 | May 21 @ $234.13 | -1.9% on the day | +0.1% | +2.9% | +7.2% | +19.3% |
| Mar 4, 2025 | Mar 4 @ $231.82 | -2.7% on the day | +0.1% | -2.3% | 0.0% | +4.6% |
| Dec 18, 2024 | Dec 18 @ $229.89 | -1.9% on the day | -3.0% | -0.3% | +5.9% | -0.4% |
| Jul 23, 2024 | Jul 23 @ $214.47 | -1.6% on the day | -1.3% | +11.3% | +8.3% | +11.3% |
| May 28, 2024 | May 28 @ $213.06 | -1.8% on the day | -1.7% | -0.5% | -5.8% | +12.3% |
| Aug 4, 2023 | Aug 4 @ $210.82 | -1.2% on the day | -0.2% | -3.9% | -10.5% | -14.0% |
| Jan 27, 2023 | Jan 27 @ $220.12 | -1.0% on the day | -0.3% | +6.1% | -5.3% | -14.5% |
| Dec 7, 2022 | Dec 7 @ $222.65 | -0.4% on the day | +1.7% | +7.0% | +5.2% | -12.4% |
| Aug 15, 2022 | Aug 15 @ $235.64 | -1.8% on the day | +0.2% | -0.1% | -7.4% | -1.9% |
Aftermath: entry is the close of the first session the event was fully known (the same session for price moves, the reaction session for earnings, the next session for Reddit, analyst and insider events, which are dated by day). Repeats within a few sessions count as one event. Past performance after an event says nothing certain about the next one. Not advice.