After an analyst downgrade, over the next day
A rating downgrade; entry at the next session's close. Each stock's median gain after its own events of this kind in the past 5 years, from the close of the session the event was known. Updated .
The typical S&P 500 stock gained -0.24% over the next day after an analyst downgrade (half of them between -1.60% and +0.64%), against +0.06% on any day.
Latest analyst downgrades, last few sessions
Best after an analyst downgrade
| # | Stock | Median (likely range) | Confidence | Average | Up | vs SPY | Worst · best | Events |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | AVGO Broadcom | +3.20%+2.8 to +4.7 | Low | +3.57% | 100% | +2.59% | +3% · +5% | 3 |
| 2 | AAPL Apple Inc. | +0.79%-0.1 to +1.1 | Low | +0.66% | 67% | +0.59% | 0% · +2% | 6 |
| 3 | AMAT Applied Materials | +1.87%-1.6 to +2.2 | Low | +1.77% | 75% | +1.63% | -2% · +5% | 4 |
| 4 | TTD meme | +1.27%-1.8 to +1.3 | Low | +0.09% | 60% | +1.59% | -5% · +3% | 15 |
| 5 | IREN meme | +2.18%-7.4 to +4.3 | Low | -0.28% | 67% | +1.80% | -7% · +4% | 3 |
| 6 | LLY Lilly (Eli) | -0.06%-1.4 to +2.9 | Low | +0.49% | 33% | +0.19% | -1% · +3% | 3 |
| 7 | AMD Advanced Micro Devices | +0.18%-5.7 to +4.3 | Low | -0.40% | 67% | -0.07% | -6% · +4% | 3 |
| 8 | NKE Nike, Inc. | -0.42%-1.2 to -0.4 | Medium | -0.31% | 18% | -0.83% | -2% · +3% | 11 |
| 9 | WEN meme | -1.17%-1.4 to +3.7 | Low | +0.37% | 33% | -0.94% | -1% · +4% | 3 |
| 10 | INTC Intel | -1.49%-3.8 to +2.0 | Low | -1.09% | 33% | -1.08% | -4% · +2% | 3 |
| 11 | NFLX Netflix | -1.64%-4.1 to +0.1 | Low | -1.65% | 40% | -1.62% | -4% · +2% | 5 |
| 12 | RIVN meme | -2.79%-7.2 to -2.1 | Low | -3.48% | 0% | -2.53% | -7% · -1% | 4 |
| 13 | ARM meme | -5.38%-5.4 to +0.1 | Low | -4.05% | 40% | -4.28% | -10% · +1% | 5 |
| 14 | ACN Accenture | -3.33%-5.7 to -1.9 | Low | -2.90% | 25% | -2.76% | -6% · +1% | 4 |
| 15 | SNPS Synopsys | -2.89%-2.9 to +0.6 | Low | -1.64% | 20% | -2.85% | -3% · +1% | 5 |
Worst after an analyst downgrade
| # | Stock | Median (likely range) | Confidence | Average | Up | vs SPY | Worst · best | Events |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SNPS Synopsys | -2.89%-2.9 to +0.6 | Low | -1.64% | 20% | -2.85% | -3% · +1% | 5 |
| 2 | ACN Accenture | -3.33%-5.7 to -1.9 | Low | -2.90% | 25% | -2.76% | -6% · +1% | 4 |
| 3 | ARM meme | -5.38%-5.4 to +0.1 | Low | -4.05% | 40% | -4.28% | -10% · +1% | 5 |
| 4 | RIVN meme | -2.79%-7.2 to -2.1 | Low | -3.48% | 0% | -2.53% | -7% · -1% | 4 |
| 5 | NFLX Netflix | -1.64%-4.1 to +0.1 | Low | -1.65% | 40% | -1.62% | -4% · +2% | 5 |
| 6 | INTC Intel | -1.49%-3.8 to +2.0 | Low | -1.09% | 33% | -1.08% | -4% · +2% | 3 |
| 7 | WEN meme | -1.17%-1.4 to +3.7 | Low | +0.37% | 33% | -0.94% | -1% · +4% | 3 |
| 8 | NKE Nike, Inc. | -0.42%-1.2 to -0.4 | Medium | -0.31% | 18% | -0.83% | -2% · +3% | 11 |
| 9 | AMD Advanced Micro Devices | +0.18%-5.7 to +4.3 | Low | -0.40% | 67% | -0.07% | -6% · +4% | 3 |
| 10 | LLY Lilly (Eli) | -0.06%-1.4 to +2.9 | Low | +0.49% | 33% | +0.19% | -1% · +3% | 3 |
| 11 | IREN meme | +2.18%-7.4 to +4.3 | Low | -0.28% | 67% | +1.80% | -7% · +4% | 3 |
| 12 | TTD meme | +1.27%-1.8 to +1.3 | Low | +0.09% | 60% | +1.59% | -5% · +3% | 15 |
| 13 | AMAT Applied Materials | +1.87%-1.6 to +2.2 | Low | +1.77% | 75% | +1.63% | -2% · +5% | 4 |
| 14 | AAPL Apple Inc. | +0.79%-0.1 to +1.1 | Low | +0.66% | 67% | +0.59% | 0% · +2% | 6 |
| 15 | AVGO Broadcom | +3.20%+2.8 to +4.7 | Low | +3.57% | 100% | +2.59% | +3% · +5% | 3 |
Stocks with at least 3 independent periods, ordered on an evidence-weighted median: each stock's median is pulled toward the S&P 500 typical value in proportion to its uncertainty, so a lucky handful of events cannot top the list. Confidence counts independent holding periods (overlapping ones count once): High 20+, Medium 8+, Low 3+. Median and average gain over the next day from the entry close; Up = share of events followed by a gain; vs SPY = median gain minus SPY over the same sessions. Ranks on the stock pages place each stock among the S&P 500 stocks. Small samples are noisy, and the past does not repeat on schedule. Not advice.