ARM
Outperforming without a clear catalyst yet
- ARM +5.18% on the last session vs SPY +0.74%: +4.4 pts of stock-specific move.
- Aftermath, big gain (Oct 2): After its 29 big gains in the past 5 years, ARM typically gained 1.2% over the next day (median) and was higher 55% of the time; half the outcomes fell between -2.2% and +4.1%. An ordinary day: +0.2%. Among S&P 500 stocks after big gains, that ranks #185 of 500.
- 0 Reddit mentions in the past 24 hours, 85% positive over the week.
- 1 insider or congressional trade in the past 30 days.
- Market backdrop (Fri): Average Hourly Earnings m/m 0.1% vs 0.3% expected (cooler); Non-Farm Employment Change 29K vs 89K expected (weaker); S&P futures +0.41%, 10-year yield -5bp in the 30 minutes after.
After each kind of event
| Event | Events | 1 day | 1 week | 1 month | 1 quarter |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Any day | 766 | +0.2%#182 H | +1.0%#106 H | +4.4%#117 H | +9.2%#110 M |
| Big drop (-4.8% or worse) | 34 | -0.5%#317 H | +1.2%#235 H | -1.4%#261 H | +4.7%#229 M |
| Big gain latest session (+4.8% or better) | 30 | +1.2%#185 H | -2.6%#335 H | +7.4%#181 M | +6.0%#220 L |
| Earnings beat | 11 | -1.1%#324 M | +5.2%#189 M | +9.4%#133 M | +15.9%#108 M |
| Earnings miss | — | — | — | — | — |
| 52-week high | 2 | +4.4%– | +18.0%– | +34.4%– | +10.9%– |
| 52-week low | 1 | +24.2%– | +21.0%– | +35.8%– | +73.1%– |
| Crossed above 200-day avg | 7 | +0.9%#126 L | +0.3%#256 L | +1.7%#242 L | +5.3%#227 L |
| Crossed below 200-day avg | 8 | +0.4%#234 M | +0.9%#237 M | +8.1%#135 M | +10.8%#182 L |
| RSI oversold | 5 | -2.6%#323 L | +2.8%#193 L | +13.3%#209 L | +47.8%#115 L |
| RSI overbought | 14 | -0.3%#266 M | -0.7%#240 M | +2.3%#236 M | -9.9%#333 M |
| Reddit spike | 22 | +0.8%#13 H | +0.1%#47 H | +3.1%#37 M | +3.4%#41 M |
| Analyst upgrade | 2 | -2.0%– | -4.5%– | +23.7%– | +119.7%– |
| Analyst downgrade | 5 | -5.4%#9 L | +2.3%#5 L | +0.6%#5 L | +30.9%#2 L |
| Insider buy | — | — | — | — | — |
| Insider unplanned sale | 5 | +4.8%#12 L | +33.4%#10 L | +17.2%– | -22.1%– |
Median gain from the close of the session the event was known, over each holding period; #rank among the S&P 500 stocks after the same kind of event (#1 = best). "Big" is ARM's own: its worst / best 10% of days over the prior 2 years. Highlighted: happening in the latest session.
Analyst downgrade
A rating downgrade; entry at the next session's close.
| Holding | Events | Median (likely range) | Confidence | Rank | Up | vs SPY | Range of outcomes (worst · 25–75% · median · best) | vs S&P 500 stocks (their medians) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 day | 5 | -5.38% (-5.4 to +0.1) | Low | #9 of 10 | 40% | -4.28% |
-10%
+1%
|
|
| 1 week | 5 | +2.31% (-7.5 to +7.0) | Low | #5 of 10 | 60% | +3.29% |
-16%
+14%
|
|
| 1 month | 5 ≈4 indep. | +0.59% (-12.7 to +19.3) | Low | #5 of 9 | 60% | -2.46% |
-30%
+43%
|
|
| 1 quarter | 4 | +30.91% (-20.8 to +54.6) | Low | #2 of 3 | 75% | +31.21% |
-21%
+120%
|
Range of outcomes: all of ARM's analyst downgrades in the past 5 years, from the worst to the best result over each holding period; the box holds the middle half, the tick is the median. A wide box means the median alone says little. Hover the median for the average.
Analyst downgrade by trend
| When it happened | Events | 1 day | 1 week | 1 month | 1 quarter |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Long trendAbove its 200-day avg now | 3 | -5.4%L vs +0.2% | +2.3%L vs -0.7% | +0.6%– vs -0.5% | +49.7%– vs -5.7% |
| Below its 200-day avg | 2 | -2.6%– vs +0.1% | +3.0%– vs +2.3% | +3.3%– vs +9.2% | +30.9%– vs +26.6% |
| Medium trendAbove its 50-day avg now | 2 | -4.8%– vs +0.4% | -4.4%– vs +1.2% | +6.4%– vs +2.2% | +49.7%– vs +3.6% |
| Below its 50-day avg | 3 | -5.4%L vs +0.1% | +2.3%L vs +0.7% | +0.6%L vs +6.4% | +30.9%– vs +12.6% |
| Short trendAbove its 20-day avg now | 2 | -4.8%– vs +0.3% | -4.4%– vs +1.1% | +6.4%– vs +6.7% | +49.7%– vs +2.2% |
| Below its 20-day avg | 3 | -5.4%L vs +0.1% | +2.3%L vs +0.9% | +0.6%L vs +2.4% | +30.9%– vs +16.9% |
The same event split by where ARM stood against its 200-, 50- and 20-day averages when it happened (a dip in an uptrend vs a falling knife); "vs" is the plain any-day median in that trend; "now" marks where it stands today. Splitting halves the evidence, so watch the confidence letters: H / M / L.
Latest analyst downgrades
| Event | Entry | 1 day | 1 week | 1 month | 1 quarter | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 14, 2026 | Jul 15 @ $277.01 | HSBC: Buy → Hold | -5.4% | +2.3% | +0.6% | … |
| Jun 18, 2026 | Jun 22 @ $407.72 | New Street Research: Buy → Neutral | -10.1% | -15.7% | -30.5% | -20.8% |
| Apr 7, 2026 | Apr 8 @ $148.91 | Morgan Stanley: Overweight → Equal-Weight | +0.6% | +7.0% | +43.2% | +120.2% |
| Jan 13, 2026 | Jan 14 @ $104.99 | B of A Securities: Buy → Neutral | +0.1% | +13.5% | +19.3% | +54.6% |
| Dec 15, 2025 | Dec 16 @ $121.10 | Goldman Sachs: Neutral → Sell | -5.4% | -7.5% | -12.7% | +7.2% |
Aftermath: entry is the close of the first session the event was fully known (the same session for price moves, the reaction session for earnings, the next session for Reddit, analyst and insider events, which are dated by day). Repeats within a few sessions count as one event. Past performance after an event says nothing certain about the next one. Not advice.