After an analyst downgrade, over the next month
A rating downgrade; entry at the next session's close. Each stock's median gain after its own events of this kind in the past 5 years, from the close of the session the event was known. Updated .
The typical S&P 500 stock gained +5.72% over the next month after an analyst downgrade (half of them between +0.19% and +18.21%), against +0.86% on any day.
Latest analyst downgrades, last few sessions
Best after an analyst downgrade
| # | Stock | Median (likely range) | Confidence | Average | Up | vs SPY | Worst · best | Events |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | AMD Advanced Micro Devices | +34.78%+21.7 to +60.3 | Low | +38.92% | 100% | +30.73% | +22% · +60% | 3 |
| 2 | IREN meme | +35.90%-16.7 to +66.7 | Low | +28.62% | 67% | +32.38% | -17% · +67% | 3 |
| 3 | INTC Intel | +32.55%+0.9 to +79.5 | Low | +37.65% | 100% | +31.88% | +1% · +80% | 3 |
| 4 | AMAT Applied Materials | +18.21%-13.7 to +27.6 | Low | +18.64% | 75% | +17.54% | -14% · +52% | 4 |
| 5 | AVGO Broadcom | +8.20%+0.9 to +21.2 | Low | +10.10% | 100% | +5.09% | +1% · +21% | 3 |
| 6 | RIVN meme | +4.17%-25.7 to +8.5 | Low | -1.47% | 50% | +5.14% | -26% · +12% | 4 |
| 7 | ARM meme | +0.59%-12.7 to +19.3 | Low | +4.00% | 60% | -2.46% | -30% · +43% | 5 |
| 8 | AAPL Apple Inc. | +5.72%+5.6 to +5.8 | Low | +4.17% | 83% | +4.67% | -7% · +9% | 6 |
| 9 | TTD meme | +2.30%-10.4 to +3.7 | Low | -3.41% | 60% | +0.02% | -29% · +16% | 15 |
| 10 | SNPS Synopsys | +0.19%-13.5 to +0.2 | Low | -3.92% | 60% | +0.61% | -14% · 0% | 5 |
| 11 | LLY Lilly (Eli) | +2.25%+1.0 to +5.2 | Low | +2.82% | 100% | +1.35% | +1% · +5% | 3 |
| 12 | WEN meme | -2.91%-12.5 to -1.2 | Low | -5.51% | 0% | -4.52% | -12% · -1% | 3 |
| 13 | ACN Accenture | -12.22%-26.2 to -3.0 | Low | -13.82% | 0% | -11.54% | -26% · -3% | 3 |
| 14 | NKE Nike, Inc. | -2.49%-4.4 to -1.3 | Low | -2.79% | 11% | -8.14% | -8% · +5% | 9 |
Worst after an analyst downgrade
| # | Stock | Median (likely range) | Confidence | Average | Up | vs SPY | Worst · best | Events |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | NKE Nike, Inc. | -2.49%-4.4 to -1.3 | Low | -2.79% | 11% | -8.14% | -8% · +5% | 9 |
| 2 | ACN Accenture | -12.22%-26.2 to -3.0 | Low | -13.82% | 0% | -11.54% | -26% · -3% | 3 |
| 3 | WEN meme | -2.91%-12.5 to -1.2 | Low | -5.51% | 0% | -4.52% | -12% · -1% | 3 |
| 4 | LLY Lilly (Eli) | +2.25%+1.0 to +5.2 | Low | +2.82% | 100% | +1.35% | +1% · +5% | 3 |
| 5 | SNPS Synopsys | +0.19%-13.5 to +0.2 | Low | -3.92% | 60% | +0.61% | -14% · 0% | 5 |
| 6 | TTD meme | +2.30%-10.4 to +3.7 | Low | -3.41% | 60% | +0.02% | -29% · +16% | 15 |
| 7 | AAPL Apple Inc. | +5.72%+5.6 to +5.8 | Low | +4.17% | 83% | +4.67% | -7% · +9% | 6 |
| 8 | ARM meme | +0.59%-12.7 to +19.3 | Low | +4.00% | 60% | -2.46% | -30% · +43% | 5 |
| 9 | RIVN meme | +4.17%-25.7 to +8.5 | Low | -1.47% | 50% | +5.14% | -26% · +12% | 4 |
| 10 | AVGO Broadcom | +8.20%+0.9 to +21.2 | Low | +10.10% | 100% | +5.09% | +1% · +21% | 3 |
| 11 | AMAT Applied Materials | +18.21%-13.7 to +27.6 | Low | +18.64% | 75% | +17.54% | -14% · +52% | 4 |
| 12 | INTC Intel | +32.55%+0.9 to +79.5 | Low | +37.65% | 100% | +31.88% | +1% · +80% | 3 |
| 13 | IREN meme | +35.90%-16.7 to +66.7 | Low | +28.62% | 67% | +32.38% | -17% · +67% | 3 |
| 14 | AMD Advanced Micro Devices | +34.78%+21.7 to +60.3 | Low | +38.92% | 100% | +30.73% | +22% · +60% | 3 |
Stocks with at least 3 independent periods, ordered on an evidence-weighted median: each stock's median is pulled toward the S&P 500 typical value in proportion to its uncertainty, so a lucky handful of events cannot top the list. Confidence counts independent holding periods (overlapping ones count once): High 20+, Medium 8+, Low 3+. Median and average gain over the next month from the entry close; Up = share of events followed by a gain; vs SPY = median gain minus SPY over the same sessions. Ranks on the stock pages place each stock among the S&P 500 stocks. Small samples are noisy, and the past does not repeat on schedule. Not advice.