After an analyst downgrade, over the next week
A rating downgrade; entry at the next session's close. Each stock's median gain after its own events of this kind in the past 5 years, from the close of the session the event was known. Updated .
The typical S&P 500 stock gained +0.62% over the next week after an analyst downgrade (half of them between -1.06% and +5.59%), against +0.27% on any day.
Latest analyst downgrades, last few sessions
Best after an analyst downgrade
| # | Stock | Median (likely range) | Confidence | Average | Up | vs SPY | Worst · best | Events |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | IREN meme | +19.21%+15.0 to +25.7 | Low | +19.99% | 100% | +17.90% | +15% · +26% | 3 |
| 2 | SNPS Synopsys | +9.59%+0.8 to +9.6 | Low | +6.51% | 100% | +8.89% | +1% · +10% | 5 |
| 3 | INTC Intel | +19.89%-2.5 to +27.6 | Low | +14.97% | 67% | +20.36% | -3% · +28% | 3 |
| 4 | AMAT Applied Materials | +5.82%+1.2 to +10.3 | Low | +7.53% | 100% | +4.36% | +1% · +17% | 4 |
| 5 | AMD Advanced Micro Devices | +4.92%0.0 to +9.9 | Low | +4.94% | 67% | +3.34% | 0% · +10% | 3 |
| 6 | ARM meme | +2.31%-7.5 to +7.0 | Low | -0.08% | 60% | +3.29% | -16% · +14% | 5 |
| 7 | AVGO Broadcom | +1.44%-0.9 to +12.3 | Low | +4.25% | 67% | +0.18% | -1% · +12% | 3 |
| 8 | WEN meme | +1.83%-0.6 to +2.8 | Low | +1.34% | 67% | +0.72% | -1% · +3% | 3 |
| 9 | LLY Lilly (Eli) | -0.19%-6.3 to +4.3 | Low | -0.73% | 33% | +0.24% | -6% · +4% | 3 |
| 10 | TTD meme | +0.07%-5.2 to +3.5 | Low | -0.09% | 67% | +0.12% | -12% · +23% | 15 |
| 11 | RIVN meme | -2.25%-12.6 to +1.1 | Low | -3.71% | 50% | -3.32% | -13% · +2% | 4 |
| 12 | ACN Accenture | -5.93%-22.0 to -5.0 | Low | -9.33% | 0% | -6.08% | -22% · -3% | 4 |
| 13 | AAPL Apple Inc. | -1.09%-2.7 to +4.9 | Low | +0.22% | 33% | -0.88% | -4% · +5% | 6 |
| 14 | NKE Nike, Inc. | -0.99%-3.6 to +0.4 | Medium | -0.24% | 40% | -2.34% | -5% · +8% | 10 |
| 15 | NFLX Netflix | -2.21%-5.6 to -0.4 | Low | -1.26% | 20% | -1.60% | -6% · +4% | 5 |
Worst after an analyst downgrade
| # | Stock | Median (likely range) | Confidence | Average | Up | vs SPY | Worst · best | Events |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | NFLX Netflix | -2.21%-5.6 to -0.4 | Low | -1.26% | 20% | -1.60% | -6% · +4% | 5 |
| 2 | NKE Nike, Inc. | -0.99%-3.6 to +0.4 | Medium | -0.24% | 40% | -2.34% | -5% · +8% | 10 |
| 3 | AAPL Apple Inc. | -1.09%-2.7 to +4.9 | Low | +0.22% | 33% | -0.88% | -4% · +5% | 6 |
| 4 | ACN Accenture | -5.93%-22.0 to -5.0 | Low | -9.33% | 0% | -6.08% | -22% · -3% | 4 |
| 5 | RIVN meme | -2.25%-12.6 to +1.1 | Low | -3.71% | 50% | -3.32% | -13% · +2% | 4 |
| 6 | TTD meme | +0.07%-5.2 to +3.5 | Low | -0.09% | 67% | +0.12% | -12% · +23% | 15 |
| 7 | LLY Lilly (Eli) | -0.19%-6.3 to +4.3 | Low | -0.73% | 33% | +0.24% | -6% · +4% | 3 |
| 8 | WEN meme | +1.83%-0.6 to +2.8 | Low | +1.34% | 67% | +0.72% | -1% · +3% | 3 |
| 9 | AVGO Broadcom | +1.44%-0.9 to +12.3 | Low | +4.25% | 67% | +0.18% | -1% · +12% | 3 |
| 10 | ARM meme | +2.31%-7.5 to +7.0 | Low | -0.08% | 60% | +3.29% | -16% · +14% | 5 |
| 11 | AMD Advanced Micro Devices | +4.92%0.0 to +9.9 | Low | +4.94% | 67% | +3.34% | 0% · +10% | 3 |
| 12 | AMAT Applied Materials | +5.82%+1.2 to +10.3 | Low | +7.53% | 100% | +4.36% | +1% · +17% | 4 |
| 13 | INTC Intel | +19.89%-2.5 to +27.6 | Low | +14.97% | 67% | +20.36% | -3% · +28% | 3 |
| 14 | SNPS Synopsys | +9.59%+0.8 to +9.6 | Low | +6.51% | 100% | +8.89% | +1% · +10% | 5 |
| 15 | IREN meme | +19.21%+15.0 to +25.7 | Low | +19.99% | 100% | +17.90% | +15% · +26% | 3 |
Stocks with at least 3 independent periods, ordered on an evidence-weighted median: each stock's median is pulled toward the S&P 500 typical value in proportion to its uncertainty, so a lucky handful of events cannot top the list. Confidence counts independent holding periods (overlapping ones count once): High 20+, Medium 8+, Low 3+. Median and average gain over the next week from the entry close; Up = share of events followed by a gain; vs SPY = median gain minus SPY over the same sessions. Ranks on the stock pages place each stock among the S&P 500 stocks. Small samples are noisy, and the past does not repeat on schedule. Not advice.