After an analyst downgrade, over the next quarter
A rating downgrade; entry at the next session's close. Each stock's median gain after its own events of this kind in the past 5 years, from the close of the session the event was known. Updated .
The typical S&P 500 stock gained +28.03% over the next quarter after an analyst downgrade (half of them between +24.68% and +39.98%), against +2.15% on any day.
Latest analyst downgrades, last few sessions
Best after an analyst downgrade
| # | Stock | Median (likely range) | Confidence | Average | Up | vs SPY | Worst · best | Events |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | AMAT Applied Materials | +51.94%+22.1 to +62.2 | Low | +45.42% | 100% | +48.50% | +22% · +62% | 3 |
| 2 | ARM meme | +30.91%-20.8 to +54.6 | Low | +40.30% | 75% | +31.21% | -21% · +120% | 4 |
| 3 | INTC Intel | +28.03%+20.5 to +54.9 | Low | +34.47% | 100% | +25.66% | +21% · +55% | 3 |
| 4 | LLY Lilly (Eli) | +21.33%+5.2 to +36.8 | Low | +21.09% | 100% | +9.00% | +5% · +37% | 3 |
| 5 | WEN meme | -10.03%-13.3 to +11.7 | Low | -3.89% | 33% | -12.68% | -13% · +12% | 3 |
| 6 | TTD meme | -31.56%-37.0 to -21.3 | Low | -26.65% | 0% | -35.08% | -37% · -9% | 9 |
Worst after an analyst downgrade
| # | Stock | Median (likely range) | Confidence | Average | Up | vs SPY | Worst · best | Events |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | TTD meme | -31.56%-37.0 to -21.3 | Low | -26.65% | 0% | -35.08% | -37% · -9% | 9 |
| 2 | WEN meme | -10.03%-13.3 to +11.7 | Low | -3.89% | 33% | -12.68% | -13% · +12% | 3 |
| 3 | LLY Lilly (Eli) | +21.33%+5.2 to +36.8 | Low | +21.09% | 100% | +9.00% | +5% · +37% | 3 |
| 4 | INTC Intel | +28.03%+20.5 to +54.9 | Low | +34.47% | 100% | +25.66% | +21% · +55% | 3 |
| 5 | ARM meme | +30.91%-20.8 to +54.6 | Low | +40.30% | 75% | +31.21% | -21% · +120% | 4 |
| 6 | AMAT Applied Materials | +51.94%+22.1 to +62.2 | Low | +45.42% | 100% | +48.50% | +22% · +62% | 3 |
Stocks with at least 3 independent periods, ordered on an evidence-weighted median: each stock's median is pulled toward the S&P 500 typical value in proportion to its uncertainty, so a lucky handful of events cannot top the list. Confidence counts independent holding periods (overlapping ones count once): High 20+, Medium 8+, Low 3+. Median and average gain over the next quarter from the entry close; Up = share of events followed by a gain; vs SPY = median gain minus SPY over the same sessions. Ranks on the stock pages place each stock among the S&P 500 stocks. Small samples are noisy, and the past does not repeat on schedule. Not advice.