Aftermath
After a big drop, over the next day
A daily fall among the stock's own worst 10% of the prior 2 years. So "big" depends on the stock: a quiet stock's big day is a volatile stock's normal one; each stock's own line is shown under its name. Each stock's median gain after its own events of this kind in the past 5 years, from the close of the session the event was known. Updated .
The typical S&P 500 stock gained +0.12% over the next day after a big drop (half of them between -0.03% and +0.29%), against +0.06% on any day.
Latest big drops, last few sessions
| Entry | Stock | Its median, 1 day | Confidence | Rank | Up | Events | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 2 | ACN Accenture | -6.3% on the day (line -2.6%) | +0.10% | High | #273 of 500 | 51% | 68 |
| Oct 2 | ADP Automatic Data Processing | -2.4% on the day (line -1.6%) | -0.03% | High | #411 of 500 | 49% | 68 |
| Oct 2 | AJG Arthur J. Gallagher … | -2.5% on the day (line -2.0%) | -0.01% | High | #405 of 500 | 49% | 61 |
| Oct 2 | AON Aon plc | -2.4% on the day (line -1.7%) | +0.28% | High | #155 of 500 | 52% | 66 |
| Oct 2 | BR Broadridge Financial Solutions | -2.6% on the day (line -1.8%) | -0.05% | High | #343 of 500 | 50% | 54 |
| Oct 2 | BRO Brown & Brown | -3.0% on the day (line -1.9%) | +0.29% | High | #87 of 500 | 55% | 66 |
| Oct 2 | CTSH Cognizant | -3.9% on the day (line -2.4%) | -0.17% | High | #406 of 500 | 41% | 68 |
| Oct 2 | FDS FactSet | -4.2% on the day (line -2.6%) | -0.04% | High | #414 of 500 | 49% | 69 |
| Oct 2 | ISRG Intuitive Surgical | -2.3% on the day (line -2.2%) | +0.28% | High | #92 of 500 | 57% | 63 |
| Oct 2 | IT Gartner | -4.2% on the day (line -3.0%) | +0.10% | High | #261 of 500 | 53% | 60 |
| Oct 2 | LDOS Leidos | -3.5% on the day (line -2.1%) | +0.03% | High | #385 of 500 | 52% | 62 |
| Oct 2 | NKE Nike, Inc. | -3.6% on the day (line -2.4%) | -0.07% | High | #374 of 500 | 47% | 59 |
| Oct 2 | NVR NVR, Inc. | -2.2% on the day (line -2.1%) | +0.56% | High | #16 of 500 | 60% | 67 |
| Oct 2 | PAYX Paychex | -1.9% on the day (line -1.9%) | +0.03% | High | #350 of 500 | 51% | 67 |
| Oct 2 | ROP Roper Technologies | -2.0% on the day (line -1.9%) | +0.13% | High | #241 of 500 | 52% | 66 |
| Oct 2 | ROST Ross Stores | -2.4% on the day (line -1.6%) | +0.12% | High | #260 of 500 | 55% | 49 |
| Oct 2 | SCHW Charles Schwab Corporation | -1.7% on the day (line -1.6%) | +0.28% | High | #107 of 500 | 62% | 52 |
| Oct 2 | STX Seagate Technology | -10.2% on the day (line -3.6%) | -0.58% | High | #391 of 500 | 43% | 61 |
| Oct 2 | VEEV Veeva Systems | -3.0% on the day (line -2.6%) | -0.18% | High | #416 of 500 | 43% | 58 |
| Oct 2 | VRSK Verisk Analytics | -2.7% on the day (line -2.0%) | +0.10% | High | #283 of 500 | 53% | 60 |
| Oct 2 | WDC Western Digital | -10.2% on the day (line -4.0%) | -0.17% | High | #294 of 500 | 49% | 55 |
| Oct 1 | A Agilent Technologies | -3.3% on the day (line -2.2%) | +0.16% | High | #214 of 500 | 53% | 62 |
| Oct 1 | AMGN Amgen | -3.4% on the day (line -1.8%) | +0.04% | High | #401 of 500 | 53% | 74 |
| Oct 1 | BRUN | -3.7% on the day (line -3.2%) | -1.10% | High | #315 of 500 | 48% | 21 |
| Oct 1 | CRL Charles River Laboratories | -2.8% on the day (line -2.7%) | +0.36% | High | #139 of 500 | 60% | 58 |
| Oct 1 | CTVA Corteva | -83.8% on the day (line -1.5%) | -0.24% | High | #494 of 500 | 40% | 63 |
| Oct 1 | DHR Danaher Corporation | -4.4% on the day (line -2.1%) | +0.14% | High | #221 of 500 | 53% | 60 |
| Oct 1 | DIS Walt Disney Company … | -3.4% on the day (line -1.7%) | +0.11% | High | #302 of 500 | 57% | 63 |
| Oct 1 | DOC Healthpeak Properties | -2.6% on the day (line -1.7%) | -0.03% | High | #336 of 500 | 48% | 58 |
| Oct 1 | FOX Fox Corporation (Class … | -2.5% on the day (line -2.0%) | +0.21% | High | #153 of 500 | 55% | 60 |
| Oct 1 | FOXA Fox Corporation (Class … | -2.2% on the day (line -2.1%) | +0.06% | High | #331 of 500 | 50% | 64 |
| Oct 1 | ILMN Illumina, Inc. | -2.9% on the day (line -2.9%) | +0.39% | High | #176 of 500 | 56% | 61 |
| Oct 1 | INCY Incyte | -3.5% on the day (line -2.1%) | -0.10% | High | #484 of 500 | 45% | 65 |
| Oct 1 | IQV IQVIA | -3.0% on the day (line -2.4%) | +0.36% | High | #113 of 500 | 55% | 62 |
| Oct 1 | KMB Kimberly-Clark | -3.2% on the day (line -1.6%) | +0.10% | High | #325 of 500 | 53% | 66 |
| Oct 1 | KVUE Kenvue | -2.5% on the day (line -1.9%) | +0.14% | High | #238 of 500 | 52% | 40 |
| Oct 1 | LVS Las Vegas Sands | -3.0% on the day (line -2.4%) | -0.23% | High | #459 of 500 | 43% | 63 |
| Oct 1 | NIVF | -39.9% on the day (line -14.2%) | 0.00% | High | #255 of 500 | 47% | 77 |
| Oct 1 | O Realty Income | -1.4% on the day (line -1.3%) | -0.25% | High | #496 of 500 | 38% | 63 |
| Oct 1 | PSKY Paramount Skydance Corporation | -9.6% on the day (line -3.2%) | -0.03% | High | #274 of 500 | 48% | 64 |
| Oct 1 | RSG Republic Services | -1.4% on the day (line -1.3%) | 0.00% | High | #445 of 500 | 49% | 59 |
| Oct 1 | SJM J.M. Smucker Company … | -2.5% on the day (line -1.9%) | -0.16% | High | #471 of 500 | 43% | 74 |
| Oct 1 | TMO Thermo Fisher Scientific | -3.3% on the day (line -2.0%) | +0.33% | High | #102 of 500 | 57% | 63 |
| Oct 1 | VRTX Vertex Pharmaceuticals | -3.1% on the day (line -1.9%) | +0.46% | High | #13 of 500 | 62% | 61 |
| Oct 1 | WAT Waters Corporation | -3.1% on the day (line -2.1%) | +0.43% | High | #34 of 500 | 60% | 57 |
| Sep 30 | ACGL Arch Capital Group | -2.9% on the day (line -1.7%) | +0.55% | High | #58 of 500 | 58% | 64 |
| Sep 30 | AFL Aflac | -1.6% on the day (line -1.3%) | +0.27% | High | #63 of 500 | 62% | 60 |
| Sep 30 | AOS A. O. Smith | -2.8% on the day (line -2.0%) | +0.16% | High | #215 of 500 | 53% | 59 |
| Sep 30 | APP AppLovin | -5.0% on the day (line -4.8%) | +0.39% | High | #216 of 500 | 54% | 54 |
| Sep 30 | BNY BNY Mellon | -1.6% on the day (line -1.4%) | +0.45% | High | #98 of 500 | 58% | 53 |
| Sep 30 | CB Chubb Limited | -2.1% on the day (line -1.4%) | +0.27% | High | #79 of 500 | 61% | 61 |
| Sep 30 | CEG Constellation Energy | -4.0% on the day (line -3.6%) | -0.28% | High | #441 of 500 | 40% | 67 |
| Sep 30 | COR Cencora | -2.4% on the day (line -1.5%) | -0.28% | High | #497 of 500 | 40% | 62 |
| Sep 30 | COST Costco | -1.5% on the day (line -1.4%) | -0.16% | High | #488 of 500 | 42% | 67 |
| Sep 30 | FLEX Flex Ltd. | -3.4% on the day (line -3.3%) | +0.58% | High | #126 of 500 | 56% | 64 |
| Sep 30 | GIS General Mills | -4.9% on the day (line -2.2%) | -0.12% | High | #500 of 500 | 43% | 82 |
| Sep 30 | HIG Hartford (The) | -2.8% on the day (line -1.5%) | +0.63% | High | #5 of 500 | 63% | 60 |
| Sep 30 | HSY Hershey Company (The) | -2.4% on the day (line -2.1%) | -0.30% | High | #492 of 500 | 43% | 77 |
| Sep 30 | IDXX Idexx Laboratories | -2.1% on the day (line -2.1%) | +0.18% | High | #207 of 500 | 52% | 60 |
| Sep 30 | IFF International Flavors & … | -2.1% on the day (line -2.0%) | +0.19% | High | #211 of 500 | 52% | 61 |
Best after a big drop
| # | Stock | Median (likely range) | Confidence | Average | Up | vs SPY | Worst · best | Events |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | PHM PulteGroup (-2.5% or worse) | +0.65%+0.5 to +0.8 | High | +0.60% | 71% | +0.48% | -7% · +5% | 62 |
| 2 | MNST Monster Beverage (-1.6% or worse) | +0.51%+0.4 to +0.7 | High | +0.57% | 69% | +0.35% | -5% · +6% | 59 |
| 3 | GL Globe Life (-1.5% or worse) | +0.65%+0.5 to +0.8 | High | -0.16% | 72% | +0.42% | -53% · +4% | 61 |
| 4 | AMP Ameriprise Financial (-1.9% or worse) | +0.54%+0.4 to +0.8 | High | +0.56% | 69% | +0.25% | -4% · +4% | 59 |
| 5 | HIG Hartford (The) (-1.5% or worse) | +0.63%+0.3 to +0.7 | High | +0.42% | 63% | +0.24% | -3% · +5% | 60 |
| 6 | STT State Street Corporation (-1.6% or worse) | +0.53%+0.3 to +0.6 | High | +0.20% | 66% | -0.05% | -5% · +4% | 56 |
| 7 | DHI D. R. Horton (-2.8% or worse) | +0.62%+0.4 to +0.8 | High | +0.30% | 66% | +0.46% | -5% · +10% | 67 |
| 8 | IBKR Interactive Brokers (-2.8% or worse) | +0.66%+0.4 to +0.9 | High | +0.65% | 73% | +0.51% | -8% · +7% | 60 |
| 9 | TER Teradyne (-3.8% or worse) | +1.11%+0.6 to +1.5 | High | +0.76% | 71% | +0.96% | -17% · +17% | 65 |
| 10 | PFG Principal Financial Group (-1.6% or worse) | +0.31%+0.1 to +0.5 | High | +0.11% | 59% | +0.15% | -6% · +3% | 61 |
| 11 | DXCM Dexcom (-2.4% or worse) | +0.48%+0.3 to +0.7 | High | +0.59% | 62% | +0.07% | -5% · +10% | 61 |
| 12 | ES Eversource Energy (-1.8% or worse) | +0.45%+0.2 to +0.7 | High | +0.28% | 61% | +0.16% | -5% · +5% | 70 |
| 13 | VRTX Vertex Pharmaceuticals (-2.0% or worse) | +0.46%+0.1 to +0.7 | High | +0.27% | 62% | +0.44% | -11% · +9% | 61 |
| 14 | TFC Truist Financial (-1.7% or worse) | +0.75%+0.2 to +1.0 | High | -0.07% | 62% | +0.16% | -17% · +4% | 55 |
| 15 | LEN Lennar (-3.1% or worse) | +0.56%+0.4 to +0.8 | High | +0.07% | 61% | +0.40% | -5% · +4% | 69 |
| 16 | NVR NVR, Inc. (-2.1% or worse) | +0.56%+0.1 to +0.7 | High | +0.32% | 60% | -0.01% | -5% · +4% | 67 |
| 17 | L Loews Corporation (-1.2% or worse) | +0.42%+0.1 to +0.6 | High | +0.35% | 65% | -0.01% | -3% · +4% | 52 |
| 18 | VXUS meme (-1.0% or worse) | +0.34%+0.1 to +0.5 | High | +0.20% | 59% | +0.16% | -6% · +5% | 54 |
| 19 | EIX Edison International (-2.1% or worse) | +0.67%+0.1 to +0.8 | High | +0.73% | 60% | +0.40% | -6% · +9% | 72 |
| 20 | CBRE CBRE Group (-1.9% or worse) | +0.41%+0.1 to +0.6 | High | -0.02% | 63% | -0.03% | -9% · +3% | 59 |
| 21 | WY Weyerhaeuser (-2.1% or worse) | +0.32%+0.2 to +0.6 | High | +0.34% | 63% | +0.05% | -4% · +7% | 63 |
| 22 | TTWO Take-Two Interactive (-2.0% or worse) | +0.33%+0.2 to +0.6 | High | +0.26% | 63% | +0.33% | -7% · +4% | 62 |
| 23 | ADI Analog Devices (-2.4% or worse) | +0.69%+0.1 to +1.0 | High | +0.82% | 64% | +0.46% | -5% · +18% | 64 |
| 24 | HII Huntington Ingalls Industries (-2.2% or worse) | +0.40%0.0 to +0.5 | High | +0.50% | 57% | +0.40% | -7% · +14% | 68 |
| 25 | ATO Atmos Energy (-1.3% or worse) | +0.20%+0.1 to +0.3 | High | -0.05% | 62% | -0.43% | -3% · +3% | 65 |
Worst after a big drop
| # | Stock | Median (likely range) | Confidence | Average | Up | vs SPY | Worst · best | Events |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | BLGO meme (-5.9% or worse) | 0.00%0.0 to 0.0 | High | +1.65% | 30% | +0.17% | -8% · +25% | 77 |
| 2 | GIS General Mills (-2.2% or worse) | -0.12%-0.3 to 0.0 | High | -0.01% | 43% | -0.17% | -4% · +9% | 82 |
| 3 | ABT Abbott Laboratories (-1.8% or worse) | -0.27%-0.4 to 0.0 | High | -0.26% | 43% | -0.30% | -3% · +3% | 63 |
| 4 | WM Waste Management (-1.4% or worse) | -0.26%-0.4 to 0.0 | High | -0.03% | 41% | -0.13% | -3% · +6% | 61 |
| 5 | COR Cencora (-1.5% or worse) | -0.28%-0.5 to -0.2 | High | -0.30% | 40% | -0.45% | -3% · +3% | 62 |
| 6 | O Realty Income (-1.3% or worse) | -0.25%-0.5 to -0.2 | High | -0.36% | 38% | -0.38% | -6% · +4% | 63 |
| 7 | FIS Fidelity National Information … (-2.2% or worse) | -0.50%-0.8 to -0.3 | High | -1.14% | 31% | -0.47% | -28% · +3% | 61 |
| 8 | CTVA Corteva (-1.5% or worse) | -0.24%-0.4 to -0.1 | High | -0.14% | 40% | -0.13% | -5% · +3% | 63 |
| 9 | SNA Snap-on (-1.3% or worse) | -0.09%-0.3 to 0.0 | High | 0.00% | 43% | +0.09% | -8% · +3% | 58 |
| 10 | HSY Hershey Company (The) (-2.2% or worse) | -0.30%-0.4 to -0.1 | High | -0.32% | 43% | -0.12% | -5% · +3% | 77 |
| 11 | KDP Keurig Dr Pepper (-1.7% or worse) | -0.15%-0.4 to 0.0 | High | 0.00% | 44% | -0.33% | -7% · +8% | 75 |
| 12 | BSX Boston Scientific (-2.0% or worse) | -0.30%-0.5 to -0.1 | High | -0.14% | 41% | +0.19% | -4% · +3% | 63 |
| 13 | DOV Dover Corporation (-1.7% or worse) | -0.16%-0.3 to 0.0 | High | -0.11% | 43% | +0.17% | -6% · +8% | 61 |
| 14 | COST Costco (-1.4% or worse) | -0.16%-0.4 to 0.0 | High | -0.06% | 42% | -0.19% | -6% · +4% | 67 |
| 15 | GPN Global Payments (-2.5% or worse) | -0.38%-0.5 to 0.0 | High | -0.20% | 40% | -0.38% | -9% · +7% | 60 |
| 16 | HAL Halliburton (-2.7% or worse) | -0.64%-0.9 to 0.0 | High | -0.58% | 38% | -0.60% | -11% · +6% | 55 |
| 17 | HSIC Henry Schein (-1.9% or worse) | -0.17%-0.4 to -0.1 | High | -0.10% | 41% | -0.11% | -4% · +5% | 66 |
| 18 | INCY Incyte (-2.2% or worse) | -0.10%-0.2 to 0.0 | High | +0.12% | 45% | -0.01% | -3% · +6% | 65 |
| 19 | TJX TJX Companies (-1.4% or worse) | -0.09%-0.2 to +0.2 | High | +0.04% | 46% | -0.11% | -3% · +3% | 54 |
| 20 | UHS Universal Health Services (-2.2% or worse) | -0.28%-0.5 to 0.0 | High | -0.06% | 42% | -0.26% | -10% · +4% | 66 |
| 21 | SYK Stryker Corporation (-1.7% or worse) | -0.12%-0.4 to 0.0 | High | -0.04% | 41% | +0.01% | -6% · +5% | 64 |
| 22 | VRSN Verisign (-1.7% or worse) | -0.16%-0.4 to +0.1 | High | -0.11% | 47% | +0.16% | -4% · +3% | 59 |
| 23 | GEN Gen Digital (-2.2% or worse) | -0.10%-0.3 to +0.1 | High | -0.11% | 46% | -0.30% | -6% · +8% | 68 |
| 24 | PODD Insulet Corporation (-2.6% or worse) | -0.42%-0.7 to -0.1 | High | -0.24% | 39% | -0.28% | -8% · +8% | 54 |
| 25 | MLM Martin Marietta Materials (-2.0% or worse) | -0.18%-0.4 to 0.0 | High | -0.22% | 45% | +0.10% | -6% · +4% | 64 |
Stocks with at least 3 independent periods, ordered on an evidence-weighted median: each stock's median is pulled toward the S&P 500 typical value in proportion to its uncertainty, so a lucky handful of events cannot top the list. Confidence counts independent holding periods (overlapping ones count once): High 20+, Medium 8+, Low 3+. Median and average gain over the next day from the entry close; Up = share of events followed by a gain; vs SPY = median gain minus SPY over the same sessions. Ranks on the stock pages place each stock among the S&P 500 stocks. Small samples are noisy, and the past does not repeat on schedule. Not advice.