NKE
Nike, Inc. · Consumer Cyclical · Footwear & Accessories
$33.87
-3.64% today · -5.26% 1W
Oct 2 close or latest
PreviewWhy it's moving
Falling despite an earnings beat
- NKE −3.64% on the last session vs SPY +0.74%: −4.4 pts of stock-specific move.
- Reported 1Q2027 Oct 1 after the close: EPS $0.48 vs $0.44 expected (beat, +$0.04, +9.9%); revenue $11.2B. The stock moved -3.6% on Fri's session (-4.4 pts vs SPY).
- Aftermath, earnings beat (Oct 2): After its 18 earnings beats in the past 5 years, NKE typically lost 0.1% over the next day (median) and was higher only 39% of the time; half the outcomes fell between -0.9% and +0.7%. An ordinary day: -0.1%. Among S&P 500 stocks after earnings beats, that ranks #379 of 497.
- 12 Reddit mentions in the past 24 hours, 73% positive over the week.
- 25 analyst actions in the past 10 days (1 positive, 21 negative); latest: Telsey Advisory Group maintained Market Perform, lowered target $44.00 → $35.00.
- 3 insider or congressional trades in the past 30 days.
- Market backdrop (Fri): Average Hourly Earnings m/m 0.1% vs 0.3% expected (cooler); Non-Farm Employment Change 29K vs 89K expected (weaker); S&P futures +0.41%, 10-year yield -5bp in the 30 minutes after.
Assembled from Wallsti's own signals.
Latest session
Earnings beat
1Q2027 · EPS +$0.04 (+9.9%) vs consensus · -3.6% reaction
After its 18 earnings beats in the past 5 years, NKE typically lost 0.1% over the next day (median) and was higher only 39% of the time; half the outcomes fell between -0.9% and +0.7%. An ordinary day: -0.1%. Among S&P 500 stocks after earnings beats, that ranks #379 of 497.
See the aftermath
Latest session
Reddit spike
394 mentions vs 10.1/day the week before
After its 19 Reddit spikes in the past 5 years, NKE typically gained 0.5% over the next day (median) and was higher 63% of the time; half the outcomes fell between -0.5% and +1.6%. An ordinary day: -0.1%. Among S&P 500 stocks after Reddit spikes, that ranks #11 of 92.
See the aftermath
Latest session
Big drop
-3.6% on the day (line -2.4%)
After its 59 big drops in the past 5 years, NKE typically lost 0.9% over the next week (median) and was higher only 46% of the time; half the outcomes fell between -2.5% and +3.3%. An ordinary week: -0.5%. Among S&P 500 stocks after big drops, that ranks #438 of 500.
Latest session
RSI oversold
RSI 28.5, -3.6% on the day
After its 18 oversold readings in the past 5 years, NKE typically lost 2.0% over the next week (median) and was higher only 33% of the time; half the outcomes fell between -3.3% and +2.5%. An ordinary week: -0.5%. Among S&P 500 stocks after oversold readings, that ranks #482 of 496.
See the aftermath
After each kind of event
| Event | Events | 1 day | 1 week | 1 month | 1 quarter |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Any day | 1,255 | -0.1%#499 H | -0.5%#503 H | -1.7%#498 H | -8.4%#501 M |
| Big drop latest session (-2.5% or worse) | 60 | -0.1%#374 H | -0.9%#438 H | +0.2%#472 H | -7.9%#497 M |
| Big gain (+2.5% or better) | 58 | +0.2%#164 H | -0.3%#416 H | -0.6%#418 H | -6.1%#363 M |
| Earnings beat latest session | 19 | -0.1%#379 M | +0.1%#326 M | -0.2%#324 M | -7.8%#496 M |
| Earnings miss | 1 | -1.1%– | -4.2%– | -0.9%– | -13.1%– |
| 52-week high | — | — | — | — | — |
| 52-week low | 8 | -0.2%#197 M | 0.0%#160 M | -1.4%#194 L | -10.5%#195 L |
| Crossed above 200-day avg | 8 | -0.4%#411 M | -2.0%#381 M | -1.7%#451 M | -12.4%#492 M |
| Crossed below 200-day avg | 9 | -0.8%#470 M | -1.4%#378 M | -3.1%#473 M | -12.8%#493 L |
| RSI oversold latest session | 19 | 0.0%#342 M | -2.0%#482 M | +0.2%#423 M | -3.1%#443 M |
| RSI overbought | 8 | -0.5%#434 M | +2.1%#120 M | +2.1%#161 M | -6.9%#461 L |
| Reddit spike latest session | 20 | +0.5%#11 M | +0.8%#21 M | -0.5%#70 M | -7.0%#86 M |
| Analyst upgrade | 5 | -1.1%#17 L | -2.2%#17 L | -12.3%#15 L | -9.7%#9 L |
| Analyst downgrade Sep 28 | 11 | -0.4%#6 M | -1.0%#9 M | -2.5%#9 L | -1.7%– |
| Insider buy | 4 | +1.5%#2 L | +4.7%#1 L | +5.1%#1 L | -8.2%– |
| Insider unplanned sale | 2 | -0.7%– | -2.0%– | -11.1%– | -7.6%– |
Median gain from the close of the session the event was known, over each holding period; #rank among the S&P 500 stocks after the same kind of event (#1 = best). "Big" is NKE's own: its worst / best 10% of days over the prior 2 years. Highlighted: happening in the latest session.
Big drop (-2.5% or worse)
A daily fall among the stock's own worst 10% of the prior 2 years.
| Holding | Events | Median (likely range) | Confidence | Rank | Up | vs SPY | Range of outcomes (worst · 25–75% · median · best) | vs S&P 500 stocks (their medians) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 day | 59 | -0.07% (-0.5 to +0.2) | High | #374 of 500 | 47% | +0.03% |
-4%
+4%
|
|
| 1 week | 59 | -0.93% (-1.5 to +0.4) | High | #438 of 500 | 46% | -0.93% |
-20%
+9%
|
|
| 1 month | 59 ≈40 indep. | +0.17% (-0.8 to +1.6) | High | #472 of 500 | 51% | -1.26% |
-30%
+25%
|
|
| 1 quarter | 55 ≈15 indep. | -7.86% (-9.9 to -3.2) | Medium | #497 of 499 | 35% | -12.46% |
-30%
+44%
|
Range of outcomes: all of NKE's big drops in the past 5 years, from the worst to the best result over each holding period; the box holds the middle half, the tick is the median. A wide box means the median alone says little. Hover the median for the average.
Big drop by trend
| When it happened | Events | 1 day | 1 week | 1 month | 1 quarter |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Long trendAbove its 200-day avg | 7 | -0.5%L vs -0.2% | -1.9%L vs -0.9% | -0.1%L vs -3.2% | -8.8%L vs -10.8% |
| Below its 200-day avg now | 53 | 0.0%H vs -0.1% | -0.2%H vs -0.3% | +0.4%H vs -0.8% | -6.6%M vs -5.4% |
| Medium trendAbove its 50-day avg | 10 | -0.6%M vs -0.2% | -1.2%M vs -0.6% | +0.7%M vs -3.3% | -9.1%L vs -10.4% |
| Below its 50-day avg now | 50 | 0.0%H vs -0.1% | -0.5%H vs -0.6% | +0.2%H vs -1.4% | -7.9%M vs -7.7% |
| Short trendAbove its 20-day avg | 16 | -0.1%M vs -0.1% | +1.7%M vs -0.5% | +2.1%M vs -2.5% | -7.3%M vs -11.1% |
| Below its 20-day avg now | 44 | -0.1%H vs -0.1% | -1.4%H vs -0.7% | -0.5%H vs -1.4% | -8.2%M vs -7.4% |
The same event split by where NKE stood against its 200-, 50- and 20-day averages when it happened (a dip in an uptrend vs a falling knife); "vs" is the plain any-day median in that trend; "now" marks where it stands today. Splitting halves the evidence, so watch the confidence letters: H / M / L.
Latest big drops
| Event | Entry | 1 day | 1 week | 1 month | 1 quarter | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 2, 2026 | Oct 2 @ $33.87 | -3.6% on the day (line -2.4%) | … | … | … | … |
| Aug 25, 2026 | Aug 25 @ $39.07 | -3.1% on the day (line -2.4%) | -2.3% | -2.4% | -7.9% | … |
| Aug 17, 2026 | Aug 17 @ $38.68 | -4.0% on the day (line -2.4%) | +2.5% | +4.2% | -7.5% | … |
| Aug 4, 2026 | Aug 4 @ $41.09 | -2.6% on the day (line -2.4%) | +2.2% | -0.5% | -6.9% | … |
| Jul 23, 2026 | Jul 23 @ $40.56 | -2.9% on the day (line -2.4%) | +1.7% | +3.2% | -0.6% | … |
| Jun 22, 2026 | Jun 22 @ $42.74 | -4.5% on the day (line -2.5%) | -1.9% | -4.0% | -2.3% | -15.5% |
| Jun 2, 2026 | Jun 2 @ $43.27 | -4.8% on the day (line -2.5%) | +0.2% | +2.1% | +0.8% | -11.9% |
| May 4, 2026 | May 4 @ $42.26 | -3.0% on the day (line -2.4%) | -0.1% | -1.6% | +2.6% | -2.8% |
| Apr 10, 2026 | Apr 10 @ $41.80 | -3.1% on the day (line -2.4%) | +0.7% | +8.0% | -0.5% | +3.6% |
| Apr 1, 2026 | Apr 1 @ $43.77 | -15.5% on the day (line -2.3%) | -1.0% | -1.4% | -0.5% | -0.3% |
| Mar 12, 2026 | Mar 12 @ $53.09 | -2.8% on the day (line -2.3%) | -0.3% | -1.3% | -20.7% | -14.3% |
| Mar 3, 2026 | Mar 3 @ $58.25 | -2.7% on the day (line -2.3%) | -1.3% | -5.6% | -24.9% | -25.7% |
| Feb 23, 2026 | Feb 23 @ $61.47 | -3.5% on the day (line -2.3%) | +1.6% | -2.7% | -14.7% | -28.7% |
| Feb 5, 2026 | Feb 5 @ $61.09 | -2.4% on the day (line -2.2%) | +1.9% | -2.6% | -9.2% | -28.7% |
| Jan 27, 2026 | Jan 27 @ $61.47 | -2.9% on the day (line -2.2%) | -1.3% | -3.4% | +1.4% | -28.2% |
Aftermath: entry is the close of the first session the event was fully known (the same session for price moves, the reaction session for earnings, the next session for Reddit, analyst and insider events, which are dated by day). Repeats within a few sessions count as one event. Past performance after an event says nothing certain about the next one. Not advice.