Aftermath
After a big drop, over the next month
A daily fall among the stock's own worst 10% of the prior 2 years. So "big" depends on the stock: a quiet stock's big day is a volatile stock's normal one; each stock's own line is shown under its name. Each stock's median gain after its own events of this kind in the past 5 years, from the close of the session the event was known. Updated .
The typical S&P 500 stock gained +1.42% over the next month after a big drop (half of them between +0.50% and +2.53%), against +0.86% on any day.
Latest big drops, last few sessions
| Entry | Stock | Its median, 1 month | Confidence | Rank | Up | Events | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 2 | ACN Accenture | -6.3% on the day (line -2.6%) | +0.64% | High | #309 of 500 | 52% | 66 |
| Oct 2 | ADP Automatic Data Processing | -2.4% on the day (line -1.6%) | -0.24% | High | #448 of 500 | 47% | 66 |
| Oct 2 | AJG Arthur J. Gallagher … | -2.5% on the day (line -2.0%) | +2.21% | High | #91 of 500 | 63% | 59 |
| Oct 2 | AON Aon plc | -2.4% on the day (line -1.7%) | +1.10% | High | #321 of 500 | 55% | 64 |
| Oct 2 | BR Broadridge Financial Solutions | -2.6% on the day (line -1.8%) | +0.88% | High | #347 of 500 | 58% | 52 |
| Oct 2 | BRO Brown & Brown | -3.0% on the day (line -1.9%) | -0.46% | High | #453 of 500 | 43% | 63 |
| Oct 2 | CTSH Cognizant | -3.9% on the day (line -2.4%) | +1.56% | High | #231 of 500 | 56% | 66 |
| Oct 2 | FDS FactSet | -4.2% on the day (line -2.6%) | +1.27% | High | #295 of 500 | 60% | 67 |
| Oct 2 | ISRG Intuitive Surgical | -2.3% on the day (line -2.2%) | +0.74% | High | #334 of 500 | 55% | 62 |
| Oct 2 | IT Gartner | -4.2% on the day (line -3.0%) | +0.53% | High | #317 of 500 | 54% | 59 |
| Oct 2 | LDOS Leidos | -3.5% on the day (line -2.1%) | -1.37% | High | #435 of 500 | 48% | 61 |
| Oct 2 | NKE Nike, Inc. | -3.6% on the day (line -2.4%) | +0.17% | High | #472 of 500 | 51% | 59 |
| Oct 2 | NVR NVR, Inc. | -2.2% on the day (line -2.1%) | +0.37% | High | #402 of 500 | 52% | 66 |
| Oct 2 | PAYX Paychex | -1.9% on the day (line -1.9%) | +1.27% | High | #292 of 500 | 54% | 65 |
| Oct 2 | ROP Roper Technologies | -2.0% on the day (line -1.9%) | +0.59% | High | #462 of 500 | 56% | 64 |
| Oct 2 | ROST Ross Stores | -2.4% on the day (line -1.6%) | +1.35% | High | #258 of 500 | 62% | 48 |
| Oct 2 | SCHW Charles Schwab Corporation | -1.7% on the day (line -1.6%) | +0.87% | High | #375 of 500 | 54% | 50 |
| Oct 2 | STX Seagate Technology | -10.2% on the day (line -3.6%) | +3.26% | High | #145 of 500 | 63% | 60 |
| Oct 2 | VEEV Veeva Systems | -3.0% on the day (line -2.6%) | +2.78% | High | #69 of 500 | 63% | 57 |
| Oct 2 | VRSK Verisk Analytics | -2.7% on the day (line -2.0%) | +0.51% | High | #424 of 500 | 53% | 59 |
| Oct 2 | WDC Western Digital | -10.2% on the day (line -4.0%) | +4.28% | High | #106 of 500 | 64% | 53 |
| Oct 1 | A Agilent Technologies | -3.3% on the day (line -2.2%) | +1.38% | High | #241 of 500 | 54% | 61 |
| Oct 1 | AMGN Amgen | -3.4% on the day (line -1.8%) | +0.81% | High | #393 of 500 | 56% | 72 |
| Oct 1 | BRUN | -3.7% on the day (line -3.2%) | -10.34% | Medium | #274 of 500 | 28% | 18 |
| Oct 1 | CRL Charles River Laboratories | -2.8% on the day (line -2.7%) | -1.10% | High | #427 of 500 | 42% | 57 |
| Oct 1 | CTVA Corteva | -83.8% on the day (line -1.5%) | +0.09% | High | #459 of 500 | 52% | 60 |
| Oct 1 | DHR Danaher Corporation | -4.4% on the day (line -2.1%) | +0.80% | High | #401 of 500 | 59% | 58 |
| Oct 1 | DIS Walt Disney Company … | -3.4% on the day (line -1.7%) | -1.59% | High | #498 of 500 | 40% | 60 |
| Oct 1 | DOC Healthpeak Properties | -2.6% on the day (line -1.7%) | +1.02% | High | #360 of 500 | 55% | 56 |
| Oct 1 | FOX Fox Corporation (Class … | -2.5% on the day (line -2.0%) | +2.14% | High | #105 of 500 | 60% | 58 |
| Oct 1 | FOXA Fox Corporation (Class … | -2.2% on the day (line -2.1%) | +2.54% | High | #31 of 500 | 67% | 61 |
| Oct 1 | ILMN Illumina, Inc. | -2.9% on the day (line -2.9%) | +1.02% | High | #256 of 500 | 56% | 59 |
| Oct 1 | INCY Incyte | -3.5% on the day (line -2.1%) | -0.03% | High | #439 of 500 | 50% | 64 |
| Oct 1 | IQV IQVIA | -3.0% on the day (line -2.4%) | -1.05% | High | #399 of 500 | 45% | 60 |
| Oct 1 | KMB Kimberly-Clark | -3.2% on the day (line -1.6%) | -0.07% | High | #471 of 500 | 50% | 64 |
| Oct 1 | KVUE Kenvue | -2.5% on the day (line -1.9%) | +0.61% | High | #276 of 500 | 53% | 38 |
| Oct 1 | LVS Las Vegas Sands | -3.0% on the day (line -2.4%) | +0.33% | High | #429 of 500 | 51% | 61 |
| Oct 1 | NIVF | -39.9% on the day (line -14.2%) | -18.70% | High | #397 of 500 | 27% | 75 |
| Oct 1 | O Realty Income | -1.4% on the day (line -1.3%) | +1.60% | High | #222 of 500 | 60% | 60 |
| Oct 1 | PSKY Paramount Skydance Corporation | -9.6% on the day (line -3.2%) | -1.91% | High | #421 of 500 | 42% | 62 |
| Oct 1 | RSG Republic Services | -1.4% on the day (line -1.3%) | -0.17% | High | #484 of 500 | 49% | 57 |
| Oct 1 | SJM J.M. Smucker Company … | -2.5% on the day (line -1.9%) | +1.01% | High | #312 of 500 | 54% | 71 |
| Oct 1 | TMO Thermo Fisher Scientific | -3.3% on the day (line -2.0%) | +0.38% | High | #364 of 500 | 52% | 62 |
| Oct 1 | VRTX Vertex Pharmaceuticals | -3.1% on the day (line -1.9%) | +0.97% | High | #344 of 500 | 56% | 59 |
| Oct 1 | WAT Waters Corporation | -3.1% on the day (line -2.1%) | +2.67% | High | #79 of 500 | 66% | 56 |
| Sep 30 | ACGL Arch Capital Group | -2.9% on the day (line -1.7%) | +0.84% | High | #378 of 500 | 55% | 62 |
| Sep 30 | AFL Aflac | -1.6% on the day (line -1.3%) | +1.59% | High | #224 of 500 | 64% | 58 |
| Sep 30 | AOS A. O. Smith | -2.8% on the day (line -2.0%) | +2.15% | High | #154 of 500 | 56% | 57 |
| Sep 30 | APP AppLovin | -5.0% on the day (line -4.8%) | +6.33% | High | #152 of 500 | 58% | 53 |
| Sep 30 | BNY BNY Mellon | -1.6% on the day (line -1.4%) | +5.45% | High | #1 of 500 | 78% | 50 |
| Sep 30 | CB Chubb Limited | -2.1% on the day (line -1.4%) | +2.18% | High | #93 of 500 | 64% | 59 |
| Sep 30 | CEG Constellation Energy | -4.0% on the day (line -3.6%) | +1.44% | High | #233 of 500 | 51% | 65 |
| Sep 30 | COR Cencora | -2.4% on the day (line -1.5%) | +3.02% | High | #34 of 500 | 64% | 59 |
| Sep 30 | COST Costco | -1.5% on the day (line -1.4%) | +1.13% | High | #370 of 500 | 60% | 65 |
| Sep 30 | FLEX Flex Ltd. | -3.4% on the day (line -3.3%) | +2.90% | High | #128 of 500 | 63% | 62 |
| Sep 30 | GIS General Mills | -4.9% on the day (line -2.2%) | -1.20% | High | #493 of 500 | 46% | 79 |
| Sep 30 | HIG Hartford (The) | -2.8% on the day (line -1.5%) | +3.34% | High | #22 of 500 | 63% | 57 |
| Sep 30 | HSY Hershey Company (The) | -2.4% on the day (line -2.1%) | -2.06% | High | #496 of 500 | 43% | 76 |
| Sep 30 | IDXX Idexx Laboratories | -2.1% on the day (line -2.1%) | +1.42% | High | #280 of 500 | 59% | 58 |
| Sep 30 | IFF International Flavors & … | -2.1% on the day (line -2.0%) | +1.62% | High | #216 of 500 | 63% | 60 |
Best after a big drop
| # | Stock | Median (likely range) | Confidence | Average | Up | vs SPY | Worst · best | Events |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | BNY BNY Mellon (-1.4% or worse) | +5.45%+4.5 to +6.5 | High | +4.51% | 78% | +2.82% | -13% · +22% | 50 |
| 2 | L Loews Corporation (-1.2% or worse) | +3.28%+2.0 to +3.7 | High | +2.56% | 71% | -0.71% | -6% · +12% | 51 |
| 3 | WELL Welltower (-1.5% or worse) | +3.69%+2.7 to +4.7 | High | +4.20% | 78% | +1.52% | -9% · +22% | 58 |
| 4 | CTAS Cintas (-1.5% or worse) | +2.94%+2.0 to +3.6 | High | +2.45% | 71% | +0.34% | -18% · +28% | 58 |
| 5 | GE GE Aerospace (-2.2% or worse) | +4.66%+2.9 to +5.4 | High | +4.86% | 75% | +2.33% | -12% · +32% | 56 |
| 6 | HWM Howmet Aerospace (-2.2% or worse) | +4.84%+3.3 to +6.6 | High | +5.82% | 77% | +3.28% | -19% · +30% | 60 |
| 7 | MCK McKesson Corporation (-1.7% or worse) | +3.35%+2.4 to +4.4 | High | +3.10% | 67% | +1.58% | -13% · +25% | 73 |
| 8 | PNC PNC Financial Services (-1.5% or worse) | +3.12%+1.7 to +3.3 | High | +2.57% | 70% | -0.11% | -15% · +17% | 50 |
| 9 | FIX Comfort Systems USA (-3.3% or worse) | +7.58%+5.3 to +8.8 | High | +8.54% | 73% | +4.02% | -25% · +44% | 70 |
| 10 | EBAY eBay Inc. (-2.0% or worse) | +4.87%+3.5 to +5.6 | High | +4.12% | 66% | +1.99% | -12% · +28% | 56 |
| 11 | EIX Edison International (-2.1% or worse) | +3.27%+2.3 to +4.5 | High | +2.17% | 76% | +0.37% | -34% · +22% | 70 |
| 12 | WMT Walmart (-1.6% or worse) | +2.88%+2.2 to +4.6 | High | +2.86% | 71% | +0.26% | -14% · +16% | 66 |
| 13 | VXUS meme (-1.0% or worse) | +2.19%+1.2 to +2.7 | High | +1.82% | 77% | -0.08% | -11% · +10% | 52 |
| 14 | APH Amphenol (-2.5% or worse) | +4.74%+2.8 to +6.1 | High | +4.96% | 74% | +2.17% | -16% · +36% | 65 |
| 15 | MO Altria (-1.4% or worse) | +2.78%+1.1 to +3.3 | High | +2.75% | 68% | -0.19% | -12% · +16% | 66 |
| 16 | LYV Live Nation Entertainment (-2.0% or worse) | +3.46%+3.0 to +4.6 | High | +2.82% | 67% | +0.70% | -15% · +20% | 57 |
| 17 | STT State Street Corporation (-1.6% or worse) | +4.52%+1.6 to +5.8 | High | +3.99% | 75% | +2.00% | -17% · +25% | 53 |
| 18 | JPM JPMorgan Chase (-1.5% or worse) | +3.68%+2.1 to +5.5 | High | +3.86% | 71% | +1.54% | -16% · +27% | 56 |
| 19 | MPC Marathon Petroleum (-2.2% or worse) | +3.99%+1.2 to +4.8 | High | +4.16% | 68% | +1.86% | -16% · +29% | 59 |
| 20 | AMAT Applied Materials (-3.4% or worse) | +6.46%+3.9 to +8.6 | High | +5.30% | 70% | +4.66% | -22% · +44% | 63 |
| 21 | PKG Packaging Corporation of … (-1.6% or worse) | +4.95%+2.1 to +6.3 | High | +3.66% | 68% | +1.09% | -12% · +19% | 59 |
| 22 | ALL Allstate (-1.9% or worse) | +2.11%+1.3 to +2.6 | High | +2.05% | 68% | -0.11% | -14% · +16% | 68 |
| 23 | HIG Hartford (The) (-1.5% or worse) | +3.34%+0.8 to +4.4 | High | +2.81% | 63% | +0.60% | -8% · +15% | 57 |
| 24 | CIEN Ciena (-4.0% or worse) | +5.47%+3.6 to +7.7 | High | +5.70% | 68% | +4.37% | -29% · +55% | 74 |
| 25 | CDNS Cadence Design Systems (-2.5% or worse) | +3.73%+1.6 to +5.2 | High | +3.81% | 66% | +1.08% | -16% · +29% | 62 |
Worst after a big drop
| # | Stock | Median (likely range) | Confidence | Average | Up | vs SPY | Worst · best | Events |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CRWV meme (-7.0% or worse) | -14.01%-14.3 to -13.8 | Low | -6.07% | 25% | -13.65% | -16% · +20% | 4 |
| 2 | INVH Invitation Homes (-1.6% or worse) | -0.02%-0.8 to +1.0 | High | +0.91% | 48% | -1.71% | -8% · +16% | 54 |
| 3 | BIIB Biogen (-2.3% or worse) | -1.24%-2.8 to -0.3 | High | -0.61% | 37% | -3.18% | -16% · +14% | 63 |
| 4 | WEN meme (-3.0% or worse) | -1.76%-3.4 to -0.4 | High | -1.38% | 36% | -4.14% | -19% · +20% | 74 |
| 5 | DIS Walt Disney Company … (-1.7% or worse) | -1.59%-2.7 to -0.2 | High | +0.36% | 40% | -2.14% | -12% · +37% | 60 |
| 6 | MCD McDonald's (-1.4% or worse) | +0.26%-0.3 to +1.6 | High | +0.59% | 54% | -0.53% | -11% · +17% | 63 |
| 7 | HSY Hershey Company (The) (-2.2% or worse) | -2.06%-2.7 to +0.4 | High | -0.66% | 43% | -4.46% | -14% · +19% | 76 |
| 8 | WY Weyerhaeuser (-2.1% or worse) | -0.17%-1.4 to +0.6 | High | +0.75% | 49% | -2.17% | -13% · +15% | 61 |
| 9 | BDX Becton Dickinson (-1.7% or worse) | +0.49%-0.1 to +1.5 | High | +0.69% | 56% | -1.85% | -25% · +22% | 64 |
| 10 | GIS General Mills (-2.2% or worse) | -1.20%-2.6 to +0.3 | High | -0.79% | 46% | -3.06% | -19% · +15% | 79 |
| 11 | LOW Lowe's (-1.9% or worse) | -0.59%-1.6 to +0.1 | High | +0.77% | 46% | -1.14% | -18% · +20% | 63 |
| 12 | APTV Aptiv (-2.6% or worse) | -1.94%-4.0 to -1.3 | High | -0.82% | 40% | -4.06% | -23% · +33% | 53 |
| 13 | JKHY Jack Henry & … (-1.9% or worse) | -0.62%-1.5 to +1.3 | High | -0.04% | 46% | -2.01% | -14% · +23% | 67 |
| 14 | ERIE Erie Indemnity (-2.6% or worse) | -0.88%-2.3 to +0.3 | High | -0.32% | 44% | -2.26% | -22% · +43% | 75 |
| 15 | SYY Sysco (-1.4% or worse) | +0.32%-0.2 to +1.5 | High | +0.84% | 55% | -1.39% | -18% · +17% | 56 |
| 16 | VICI Vici Properties (-1.5% or worse) | -0.19%-1.1 to +0.8 | High | +0.49% | 48% | -2.22% | -10% · +10% | 52 |
| 17 | KHC Kraft Heinz (-2.0% or worse) | -0.51%-1.6 to +1.0 | High | +0.01% | 49% | -2.79% | -14% · +12% | 67 |
| 18 | PG Procter & Gamble (-1.5% or worse) | -0.05%-1.4 to +1.0 | High | +0.54% | 49% | -1.26% | -12% · +16% | 59 |
| 19 | RSG Republic Services (-1.3% or worse) | -0.17%-0.6 to +2.0 | High | +0.51% | 49% | -2.89% | -8% · +9% | 57 |
| 20 | ODFL Old Dominion (-2.5% or worse) | -1.55%-2.9 to +0.3 | High | -0.23% | 42% | -1.56% | -17% · +23% | 62 |
| 21 | HON Honeywell Technologies (-1.7% or worse) | -0.22%-1.3 to +1.2 | High | +1.42% | 49% | -1.67% | -13% · +22% | 63 |
| 22 | DE Deere & Company (-1.9% or worse) | +0.25%-0.3 to +1.4 | High | +1.71% | 54% | -1.22% | -15% · +23% | 59 |
| 23 | MDLZ Mondelez International (-1.8% or worse) | -0.49%-2.0 to +1.3 | High | +0.77% | 48% | -1.54% | -11% · +19% | 69 |
| 24 | HUM Humana (-2.8% or worse) | -1.03%-2.7 to +0.7 | High | -0.58% | 42% | -3.05% | -34% · +36% | 67 |
| 25 | CLX Clorox (-2.2% or worse) | -1.41%-2.5 to +1.4 | High | +0.04% | 45% | -1.76% | -22% · +22% | 71 |
Stocks with at least 3 independent periods, ordered on an evidence-weighted median: each stock's median is pulled toward the S&P 500 typical value in proportion to its uncertainty, so a lucky handful of events cannot top the list. Confidence counts independent holding periods (overlapping ones count once): High 20+, Medium 8+, Low 3+. Median and average gain over the next month from the entry close; Up = share of events followed by a gain; vs SPY = median gain minus SPY over the same sessions. Ranks on the stock pages place each stock among the S&P 500 stocks. Small samples are noisy, and the past does not repeat on schedule. Not advice.