After an insider buy, over the next day
An insider's open-market purchase; entry the session after its SEC filing. Each stock's median gain after its own events of this kind in the past 5 years, from the close of the session the event was known. Updated .
The typical S&P 500 stock gained +1.33% over the next day after an insider buy (half of them between +0.90% and +1.75%), against +0.06% on any day.
Latest insider buys, last few sessions
Best after an insider buy
| # | Stock | Median (likely range) | Confidence | Average | Up | vs SPY | Worst · best | Events |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | UBER Uber | +2.36%-0.9 to +2.6 | Low | +1.64% | 75% | +2.90% | -1% · +3% | 4 |
| 2 | NKE Nike, Inc. | +1.55%-3.1 to +1.7 | Low | +0.41% | 75% | +1.56% | -3% · +2% | 4 |
| 3 | BA Boeing | +1.11%-2.6 to +2.5 | Low | +0.31% | 67% | +0.57% | -3% · +2% | 3 |
| 4 | OPEN meme | -1.51%-5.1 to +14.4 | Low | +2.60% | 33% | -1.96% | -5% · +14% | 6 |
| 5 | GME meme | +0.71%-2.2 to +2.5 | Low | +1.68% | 80% | +1.43% | -2% · +7% | 5 |
| 6 | WULF meme | -2.25%-9.7 to -0.8 | Low | -4.46% | 20% | -2.52% | -13% · +3% | 5 |
| 7 | AVGO Broadcom | +0.26%+0.1 to +4.3 | Low | +1.54% | 100% | +0.10% | 0% · +4% | 3 |
| 8 | TSM meme | +0.63%-1.3 to +1.7 | Medium | +0.23% | 59% | +0.07% | -6% · +3% | 157 |
| 9 | UPST meme | -2.96%-6.9 to +2.0 | Low | -2.61% | 33% | -2.81% | -7% · +2% | 3 |
| 10 | NIVF meme | -11.65%-14.6 to -3.4 | Low | -9.87% | 0% | -11.90% | -15% · -3% | 3 |
Worst after an insider buy
| # | Stock | Median (likely range) | Confidence | Average | Up | vs SPY | Worst · best | Events |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | NIVF meme | -11.65%-14.6 to -3.4 | Low | -9.87% | 0% | -11.90% | -15% · -3% | 3 |
| 2 | UPST meme | -2.96%-6.9 to +2.0 | Low | -2.61% | 33% | -2.81% | -7% · +2% | 3 |
| 3 | TSM meme | +0.63%-1.3 to +1.7 | Medium | +0.23% | 59% | +0.07% | -6% · +3% | 157 |
| 4 | AVGO Broadcom | +0.26%+0.1 to +4.3 | Low | +1.54% | 100% | +0.10% | 0% · +4% | 3 |
| 5 | WULF meme | -2.25%-9.7 to -0.8 | Low | -4.46% | 20% | -2.52% | -13% · +3% | 5 |
| 6 | GME meme | +0.71%-2.2 to +2.5 | Low | +1.68% | 80% | +1.43% | -2% · +7% | 5 |
| 7 | OPEN meme | -1.51%-5.1 to +14.4 | Low | +2.60% | 33% | -1.96% | -5% · +14% | 6 |
| 8 | BA Boeing | +1.11%-2.6 to +2.5 | Low | +0.31% | 67% | +0.57% | -3% · +2% | 3 |
| 9 | NKE Nike, Inc. | +1.55%-3.1 to +1.7 | Low | +0.41% | 75% | +1.56% | -3% · +2% | 4 |
| 10 | UBER Uber | +2.36%-0.9 to +2.6 | Low | +1.64% | 75% | +2.90% | -1% · +3% | 4 |
Stocks with at least 3 independent periods, ordered on an evidence-weighted median: each stock's median is pulled toward the S&P 500 typical value in proportion to its uncertainty, so a lucky handful of events cannot top the list. Confidence counts independent holding periods (overlapping ones count once): High 20+, Medium 8+, Low 3+. Median and average gain over the next day from the entry close; Up = share of events followed by a gain; vs SPY = median gain minus SPY over the same sessions. Ranks on the stock pages place each stock among the S&P 500 stocks. Small samples are noisy, and the past does not repeat on schedule. Not advice.