OPEN
Outperforming without a clear catalyst yet
- OPEN +1.67% on the last session vs SPY +0.74%: +0.9 pts of stock-specific move.
- Aftermath, rsi oversold (Sep 28): After its 15 oversold readings in the past 5 years, OPEN typically gained 4.6% over the next week (median) and was higher 87% of the time; half the outcomes fell between +1.8% and +10.5%. An ordinary week: -2.0%. Among S&P 500 stocks after oversold readings, that ranks #77 of 496.
- 4 Reddit mentions in the past 24 hours, 84% positive over the week.
- Market backdrop (Fri): Average Hourly Earnings m/m 0.1% vs 0.3% expected (cooler); Non-Farm Employment Change 29K vs 89K expected (weaker); S&P futures +0.41%, 10-year yield -5bp in the 30 minutes after.
After each kind of event
| Event | Events | 1 day | 1 week | 1 month | 1 quarter |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Any day | 1,255 | -0.6%#467 H | -2.0%#504 H | -9.7%#503 H | -22.7%#502 M |
| Big drop (-7.1% or worse) | 57 | +0.4%#214 H | +1.0%#236 H | -9.5%#359 H | -0.9%#250 M |
| Big gain (+6.8% or better) | 55 | +2.6%#181 H | -2.1%#377 H | -8.6%#269 H | -15.4%#291 M |
| Earnings beat | 14 | -3.0%#407 M | +0.6%#230 M | +4.3%#204 M | -15.9%#295 M |
| Earnings miss | 5 | -1.1%#143 L | -7.2%#176 L | -16.8%#177 L | -25.6%#211 L |
| 52-week high | 2 | -9.8%– | -19.1%– | +27.1%– | +73.0%– |
| 52-week low | 11 | +2.4%#45 M | -1.8%#212 M | -16.9%#192 M | +12.4%#101 L |
| Crossed above 200-day avg | 7 | -0.4%#247 L | +5.1%#221 L | +4.2%#242 L | +10.2%#229 L |
| Crossed below 200-day avg | 6 | -3.7%#386 L | +0.6%#251 L | -9.1%#329 L | -16.4%#270 L |
| RSI oversold Sep 28 | 16 | +0.1%#264 M | +4.6%#77 M | -10.2%#349 M | -7.1%#257 M |
| RSI overbought | 11 | +1.6%#246 M | +8.8%#191 M | +21.4%#223 M | -16.3%#282 L |
| Reddit spike | 28 | -0.9%#58 H | -4.3%#71 H | -3.1%#72 M | -19.7%#86 M |
| Analyst upgrade | — | — | — | — | — |
| Analyst downgrade | — | — | — | — | — |
| Insider buy | 6 | -1.5%#4 L | -3.5%#3 L | -13.1%#3 L | -27.5%#4 L |
| Insider unplanned sale | 2 | -3.0%– | +8.5%– | -12.3%– | -22.4%– |
Median gain from the close of the session the event was known, over each holding period; #rank among the S&P 500 stocks after the same kind of event (#1 = best). "Big" is OPEN's own: its worst / best 10% of days over the prior 2 years. Highlighted: happening in the latest session.
Insider buy
An insider's open-market purchase; entry the session after its SEC filing.
| Holding | Events | Median (likely range) | Confidence | Rank | Up | vs SPY | Range of outcomes (worst · 25–75% · median · best) | vs S&P 500 stocks (their medians) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 day | 6 | -1.51% (-5.1 to +14.4) | Low | #4 of 4 | 33% | -1.96% |
-5%
+14%
|
|
| 1 week | 6 | -3.52% (-20.5 to +5.3) | Low | #3 of 4 | 33% | -2.85% |
-28%
+36%
|
|
| 1 month | 6 ≈5 indep. | -13.10% (-24.4 to -3.1) | Low | #3 of 4 | 17% | -14.48% |
-27%
+79%
|
|
| 1 quarter | 5 ≈3 indep. | -27.47% (-49.4 to -20.3) | Low | #4 of 3 | 20% | -29.98% |
-49%
+73%
|
Range of outcomes: all of OPEN's insider buys in the past 5 years, from the worst to the best result over each holding period; the box holds the middle half, the tick is the median. A wide box means the median alone says little. Hover the median for the average.
Insider buy by trend
| When it happened | Events | 1 day | 1 week | 1 month | 1 quarter |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Long trendAbove its 200-day avg | 4 | +6.9%L vs -0.7% | -7.6%L vs -1.9% | -13.1%L vs -7.4% | -27.6%– vs -21.9% |
| Below its 200-day avg now | 2 | -3.7%– vs -0.4% | -3.5%– vs -2.2% | -14.9%– vs -9.9% | -20.3%– vs -14.9% |
| Medium trendAbove its 50-day avg | 4 | +6.9%L vs -0.4% | -7.6%L vs -2.1% | -13.1%L vs -8.9% | -27.6%– vs -22.2% |
| Below its 50-day avg now | 2 | -3.7%– vs -0.7% | -3.5%– vs -1.9% | -14.9%– vs -9.5% | -20.3%– vs -20.7% |
| Short trendAbove its 20-day avg | 3 | +14.4%L vs -0.9% | -20.5%L vs -3.2% | -17.3%L vs -14.4% | -27.5%– vs -25.5% |
| Below its 20-day avg now | 3 | -2.4%L vs -0.6% | -3.1%L vs -1.5% | -8.9%L vs -8.5% | -24.0%– vs -20.8% |
The same event split by where OPEN stood against its 200-, 50- and 20-day averages when it happened (a dip in an uptrend vs a falling knife); "vs" is the plain any-day median in that trend; "now" marks where it stands today. Splitting halves the evidence, so watch the confidence letters: H / M / L.
Latest insider buys
| Event | Entry | 1 day | 1 week | 1 month | 1 quarter | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 14, 2026 | Aug 17 @ $3.54 | Kasra Nejatian (Chief Executive Officer, Director), $100,002 | -5.1% | -3.1% | -26.8% | … |
| May 11, 2026 | May 13 @ $4.58 | Kasra Nejatian (Chief Executive Officer, Director), $487,800 | -2.4% | -3.9% | -3.1% | -20.3% |
| Nov 11, 2025 | Nov 13 @ $8.56 | Kasra Nejatian (Chief Executive Officer, Director), $1,004,562 | -5.1% | -28.0% | -24.4% | -49.4% |
| Sep 26, 2025 | Oct 1 @ $8.06 | Eric Chung-Wei Wu (Director), $2,000,001 | -0.6% | +5.3% | -8.9% | -27.7% |
| Sep 11, 2025 | Sep 16 @ $8.92 | Eric Chung-Wei Wu (Director), $2,999,995 | +14.5% | -20.5% | -17.3% | -27.5% |
| Aug 28, 2025 | Aug 29 @ $4.45 | Shrisha Radhakrishna (President), $128,340 | +14.4% | +35.7% | +79.1% | +73.0% |
Aftermath: entry is the close of the first session the event was fully known (the same session for price moves, the reaction session for earnings, the next session for Reddit, analyst and insider events, which are dated by day). Repeats within a few sessions count as one event. Past performance after an event says nothing certain about the next one. Not advice.