After an insider buy, over the next month
An insider's open-market purchase; entry the session after its SEC filing. Each stock's median gain after its own events of this kind in the past 5 years, from the close of the session the event was known. Updated .
The typical S&P 500 stock gained -1.74% over the next month after an insider buy (half of them between -4.10% and +1.02%), against +0.86% on any day.
Latest insider buys, last few sessions
Best after an insider buy
| # | Stock | Median (likely range) | Confidence | Average | Up | vs SPY | Worst · best | Events |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | NKE Nike, Inc. | +5.15%+0.3 to +8.0 | Low | +4.64% | 100% | +4.41% | 0% · +8% | 4 |
| 2 | TSM meme | +3.38%-3.6 to +5.2 | Low | +2.69% | 79% | -0.16% | -8% · +18% | 156 |
| 3 | WULF meme | +3.77%-0.8 to +5.4 | Low | +6.64% | 75% | +5.60% | -1% · +20% | 4 |
| 4 | BA Boeing | -0.36%-9.1 to +16.2 | Low | +2.25% | 33% | +1.56% | -9% · +16% | 3 |
| 5 | OPEN meme | -13.10%-24.4 to -3.1 | Low | -0.23% | 17% | -14.48% | -27% · +79% | 6 |
| 6 | AVGO Broadcom | -7.01%-9.6 to -1.4 | Low | -6.00% | 0% | -7.70% | -10% · -1% | 3 |
| 7 | UBER Uber | -3.13%-3.8 to -0.6 | Low | -2.50% | 0% | -2.47% | -4% · -1% | 3 |
Worst after an insider buy
| # | Stock | Median (likely range) | Confidence | Average | Up | vs SPY | Worst · best | Events |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | UBER Uber | -3.13%-3.8 to -0.6 | Low | -2.50% | 0% | -2.47% | -4% · -1% | 3 |
| 2 | AVGO Broadcom | -7.01%-9.6 to -1.4 | Low | -6.00% | 0% | -7.70% | -10% · -1% | 3 |
| 3 | OPEN meme | -13.10%-24.4 to -3.1 | Low | -0.23% | 17% | -14.48% | -27% · +79% | 6 |
| 4 | BA Boeing | -0.36%-9.1 to +16.2 | Low | +2.25% | 33% | +1.56% | -9% · +16% | 3 |
| 5 | WULF meme | +3.77%-0.8 to +5.4 | Low | +6.64% | 75% | +5.60% | -1% · +20% | 4 |
| 6 | TSM meme | +3.38%-3.6 to +5.2 | Low | +2.69% | 79% | -0.16% | -8% · +18% | 156 |
| 7 | NKE Nike, Inc. | +5.15%+0.3 to +8.0 | Low | +4.64% | 100% | +4.41% | 0% · +8% | 4 |
Stocks with at least 3 independent periods, ordered on an evidence-weighted median: each stock's median is pulled toward the S&P 500 typical value in proportion to its uncertainty, so a lucky handful of events cannot top the list. Confidence counts independent holding periods (overlapping ones count once): High 20+, Medium 8+, Low 3+. Median and average gain over the next month from the entry close; Up = share of events followed by a gain; vs SPY = median gain minus SPY over the same sessions. Ranks on the stock pages place each stock among the S&P 500 stocks. Small samples are noisy, and the past does not repeat on schedule. Not advice.