After an insider buy, over the next quarter
An insider's open-market purchase; entry the session after its SEC filing. Each stock's median gain after its own events of this kind in the past 5 years, from the close of the session the event was known. Updated .
The typical S&P 500 stock gained -5.95% over the next quarter after an insider buy (half of them between -7.84% and -4.76%), against +2.15% on any day.
Latest insider buys, last few sessions
Best after an insider buy
| # | Stock | Median (likely range) | Confidence | Average | Up | vs SPY | Worst · best | Events |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | UBER Uber | -5.95%-11.3 to -2.9 | Low | -6.70% | 0% | -11.45% | -11% · -3% | 3 |
| 2 | BA Boeing | -3.57%-6.8 to +22.9 | Low | +4.19% | 33% | -5.88% | -7% · +23% | 3 |
| 3 | AVGO Broadcom | -9.73%-11.2 to +15.0 | Low | -1.98% | 33% | -5.26% | -11% · +15% | 3 |
| 4 | OPEN meme | -27.47%-49.4 to -20.3 | Low | -10.36% | 20% | -29.98% | -49% · +73% | 5 |
Worst after an insider buy
| # | Stock | Median (likely range) | Confidence | Average | Up | vs SPY | Worst · best | Events |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | OPEN meme | -27.47%-49.4 to -20.3 | Low | -10.36% | 20% | -29.98% | -49% · +73% | 5 |
| 2 | AVGO Broadcom | -9.73%-11.2 to +15.0 | Low | -1.98% | 33% | -5.26% | -11% · +15% | 3 |
| 3 | BA Boeing | -3.57%-6.8 to +22.9 | Low | +4.19% | 33% | -5.88% | -7% · +23% | 3 |
| 4 | UBER Uber | -5.95%-11.3 to -2.9 | Low | -6.70% | 0% | -11.45% | -11% · -3% | 3 |
Stocks with at least 3 independent periods, ordered on an evidence-weighted median: each stock's median is pulled toward the S&P 500 typical value in proportion to its uncertainty, so a lucky handful of events cannot top the list. Confidence counts independent holding periods (overlapping ones count once): High 20+, Medium 8+, Low 3+. Median and average gain over the next quarter from the entry close; Up = share of events followed by a gain; vs SPY = median gain minus SPY over the same sessions. Ranks on the stock pages place each stock among the S&P 500 stocks. Small samples are noisy, and the past does not repeat on schedule. Not advice.