Aftermath
After an RSI oversold reading, over the next quarter
The 14-day RSI falls below 30. Each stock's median gain after its own events of this kind in the past 5 years, from the close of the session the event was known. Updated .
The typical S&P 500 stock gained +5.96% over the next quarter after an RSI oversold reading (half of them between +1.95% and +9.93%), against +2.15% on any day.
Latest oversold readings, last few sessions
| Entry | Stock | Its median, 1 quarter | Confidence | Rank | Up | Events | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 2 | APP AppLovin | RSI 28.4, -4.7% on the day | -10.08% | Low | #338 of 493 | 33% | 9 |
| Oct 2 | FISV Fiserv | RSI 29.2, -2.2% on the day | -1.45% | Medium | #404 of 493 | 44% | 9 |
| Oct 2 | GPN Global Payments | RSI 29.6, -2.4% on the day | +10.39% | Medium | #111 of 493 | 71% | 14 |
| Oct 2 | IP International Paper | RSI 28.5, -1.7% on the day | +10.53% | Medium | #67 of 493 | 79% | 14 |
| Oct 2 | KKR KKR & Co. | RSI 29.6, -1.0% on the day | +8.67% | Low | #94 of 493 | 80% | 10 |
| Oct 2 | MCO Moody's Corporation | RSI 30.0, -1.3% on the day | +10.44% | Low | #129 of 493 | 75% | 8 |
| Oct 2 | NKE Nike, Inc. | RSI 28.5, -3.6% on the day | -3.05% | Medium | #443 of 493 | 50% | 18 |
| Oct 2 | REG Regency Centers | RSI 29.1, -0.3% on the day | +5.52% | Low | #395 of 493 | 100% | 7 |
| Oct 2 | WEN | RSI 29.0, -2.1% on the day | -5.28% | Medium | #455 of 493 | 38% | 13 |
| Oct 1 | AFL Aflac | RSI 29.4, -0.5% on the day | +7.86% | Low | #54 of 493 | 83% | 6 |
| Oct 1 | CTVA Corteva | RSI 5.8, -83.8% on the day | +11.52% | Low | #106 of 493 | 67% | 6 |
| Oct 1 | GS Goldman Sachs | RSI 29.8, -0.4% on the day | +15.97% | Low | #40 of 493 | 89% | 9 |
| Oct 1 | KMB Kimberly-Clark | RSI 28.7, -3.2% on the day | +2.15% | Low | #460 of 493 | 73% | 11 |
| Oct 1 | RSG Republic Services | RSI 29.3, -1.4% on the day | +7.14% | Low | #86 of 493 | 100% | 4 |
| Oct 1 | VTR Ventas | RSI 26.3, -1.5% on the day | +3.67% | Low | #439 of 493 | 88% | 8 |
| Sep 30 | ABT Abbott Laboratories | RSI 29.9, -2.1% on the day | +5.43% | Medium | #329 of 493 | 75% | 16 |
| Sep 30 | APO Apollo Global Management | RSI 29.6, -2.5% on the day | +20.18% | Medium | #35 of 493 | 83% | 12 |
| Sep 30 | CB Chubb Limited | RSI 29.8, -2.1% on the day | +6.86% | Low | #182 of 493 | 83% | 6 |
| Sep 30 | F Ford Motor Company | RSI 29.0, -1.9% on the day | +11.00% | Medium | #128 of 493 | 80% | 10 |
| Sep 30 | KHC Kraft Heinz | RSI 28.2, -3.1% on the day | +7.86% | Medium | #85 of 493 | 73% | 11 |
| Sep 30 | LQDA | RSI 20.2, -57.2% on the day | +73.20% | Low | #182 of 493 | 100% | 4 |
| Sep 30 | NAMM | RSI 28.3, -4.7% on the day | +103.13% | Low | #187 of 493 | 60% | 5 |
| Sep 30 | NOC Northrop Grumman | RSI 26.8, -4.2% on the day | +5.36% | Low | #280 of 493 | 75% | 8 |
| Sep 30 | OKE Oneok | RSI 28.3, -1.8% on the day | +9.76% | Low | #93 of 493 | 100% | 7 |
| Sep 30 | PEG Public Service Enterprise … | RSI 29.8, -0.5% on the day | +7.69% | Low | #45 of 493 | 100% | 6 |
| Sep 30 | PLD Prologis | RSI 30.0, -2.1% on the day | +5.66% | Medium | #278 of 493 | 73% | 11 |
| Sep 30 | SO Southern Company | RSI 28.5, -0.7% on the day | +11.90% | Low | #9 of 493 | 100% | 6 |
| Sep 30 | UDR UDR, Inc. | RSI 27.0, -1.2% on the day | +4.29% | Medium | #429 of 493 | 79% | 14 |
| Sep 29 | CASY Casey's | RSI 29.5, -1.1% on the day | +16.52% | Low | #3 of 493 | 100% | 3 |
| Sep 29 | CINF Cincinnati Financial | RSI 28.6, -0.5% on the day | -3.66% | Low | #472 of 493 | 38% | 8 |
| Sep 29 | CPRT Copart | RSI 30.0, -0.3% on the day | -4.52% | Low | #492 of 493 | 27% | 11 |
| Sep 29 | SNA Snap-on | RSI 29.7, -0.6% on the day | +6.02% | Low | #256 of 493 | 100% | 3 |
| Sep 29 | TTD | RSI 29.4, -2.4% on the day | -12.75% | Medium | #466 of 493 | 25% | 16 |
| Sep 28 | AWK American Water Works | RSI 28.7, -1.5% on the day | +3.12% | Medium | #367 of 493 | 69% | 13 |
| Sep 28 | BA Boeing | RSI 27.4, -6.9% on the day | +10.46% | Medium | #134 of 493 | 81% | 16 |
| Sep 28 | CBOE Cboe Global Markets | RSI 30.0, -1.9% on the day | — | — | |||
| Sep 28 | DASH DoorDash | RSI 29.8, -7.7% on the day | -5.20% | Medium | #423 of 493 | 36% | 11 |
| Sep 28 | EIX Edison International | RSI 28.6, -2.2% on the day | +11.53% | Medium | #15 of 493 | 83% | 12 |
| Sep 28 | FDXF FedEx Freight | RSI 30.0, -0.8% on the day | — | — | |||
| Sep 28 | HSY Hershey Company (The) | RSI 29.9, -1.2% on the day | -5.03% | Medium | #418 of 493 | 42% | 12 |
| Sep 28 | MS Morgan Stanley | RSI 29.4, -1.4% on the day | +19.00% | Low | #83 of 493 | 57% | 7 |
| Sep 28 | OPEN | RSI 29.0, -5.5% on the day | -7.08% | Medium | #257 of 493 | 50% | 14 |
| Sep 28 | SCHW Charles Schwab Corporation | RSI 29.8, -0.7% on the day | +10.25% | Low | #151 of 493 | 80% | 10 |
| Sep 28 | SRE Sempra | RSI 28.8, -1.3% on the day | +12.76% | Low | #25 of 493 | 88% | 8 |
| Sep 28 | TLT | RSI 28.8, -0.9% on the day | +0.16% | Low | #492 of 493 | 55% | 11 |
| Sep 28 | VICI Vici Properties | RSI 29.3, -1.4% on the day | +6.59% | Medium | #175 of 493 | 67% | 12 |
| Sep 28 | XYL Xylem Inc. | RSI 27.5, -1.7% on the day | +3.25% | Low | #333 of 493 | 54% | 13 |
Best after an RSI oversold reading
| # | Stock | Median (likely range) | Confidence | Average | Up | vs SPY | Worst · best | Events |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | HWM Howmet Aerospace | +27.22%+21.2 to +28.4 | Low | +25.60% | 100% | +17.27% | +21% · +28% | 3 |
| 2 | HLT Hilton Worldwide | +11.38%+11.0 to +13.3 | Low | +14.40% | 100% | +3.36% | +6% · +31% | 5 |
| 3 | CASY Casey's | +16.52%+10.5 to +17.1 | Low | +14.72% | 100% | +11.07% | +11% · +17% | 3 |
| 4 | PWR Quanta Services | +21.57%+14.2 to +22.7 | Low | +21.68% | 100% | +20.01% | +14% · +29% | 4 |
| 5 | IBM IBM | +14.49%+11.1 to +19.3 | Medium | +15.87% | 100% | +6.17% | +2% · +31% | 11 |
| 6 | MGM MGM Resorts | +10.19%+7.0 to +11.0 | Medium | +10.47% | 80% | +2.33% | -8% · +40% | 10 |
| 7 | HST Host Hotels & … | +11.22%+7.4 to +14.1 | Medium | +11.38% | 90% | +1.06% | -3% · +25% | 10 |
| 8 | TRV Travelers Companies (The) | +9.64%+7.3 to +10.4 | Low | +10.57% | 100% | +4.23% | +1% · +26% | 7 |
| 9 | SO Southern Company | +11.90%+9.4 to +13.0 | Low | +10.54% | 100% | +8.12% | +2% · +15% | 6 |
| 10 | UNP Union Pacific Corporation | +10.64%+6.1 to +11.6 | Low | +10.54% | 100% | -1.02% | +3% · +20% | 7 |
| 11 | PH Parker Hannifin | +19.20%+8.6 to +19.3 | Low | +17.28% | 100% | +8.50% | +2% · +37% | 7 |
| 12 | EOG EOG Resources | +9.80%+8.0 to +13.1 | Low | +10.31% | 100% | -2.94% | +8% · +13% | 3 |
| 13 | SNPS Synopsys | +15.21%+10.8 to +19.0 | Medium | +14.73% | 92% | +7.32% | -6% · +42% | 12 |
| 14 | ROST Ross Stores | +11.67%+10.4 to +14.4 | Low | +12.76% | 89% | +3.22% | -2% · +25% | 9 |
| 15 | EIX Edison International | +11.53%+8.5 to +12.5 | Medium | +6.76% | 83% | +4.65% | -24% · +25% | 12 |
| 16 | V Visa Inc. | +10.05%+6.4 to +10.6 | Low | +9.25% | 100% | +8.75% | 0% · +16% | 7 |
| 17 | SOLV Solventum | +19.89%+13.4 to +22.0 | Low | +17.07% | 88% | +10.17% | -7% · +35% | 8 |
| 18 | PANW Palo Alto Networks | +12.18%+10.5 to +19.0 | Medium | +13.69% | 90% | +8.99% | -23% · +34% | 10 |
| 19 | IRM Iron Mountain | +18.97%+15.7 to +21.0 | Low | +16.93% | 88% | +10.43% | -12% · +32% | 8 |
| 20 | NDAQ Nasdaq, Inc. | +14.24%+8.0 to +20.6 | Medium | +15.33% | 91% | +8.45% | -4% · +37% | 11 |
| 21 | FLEX Flex Ltd. | +28.91%+23.5 to +31.5 | Low | +33.88% | 100% | +17.05% | +3% · +76% | 6 |
| 22 | KMI Kinder Morgan | +11.53%+6.4 to +14.5 | Low | +12.16% | 100% | +5.72% | +6% · +19% | 4 |
| 23 | FIX Comfort Systems USA | +29.63%+21.6 to +31.8 | Low | +35.26% | 100% | +21.35% | +22% · +60% | 4 |
| 24 | RTX RTX Corporation | +22.36%+6.5 to +23.3 | Low | +14.56% | 86% | +12.04% | -15% · +25% | 7 |
| 25 | SRE Sempra | +12.76%+3.7 to +15.2 | Low | +8.67% | 88% | +4.72% | -12% · +17% | 8 |
Worst after an RSI oversold reading
| # | Stock | Median (likely range) | Confidence | Average | Up | vs SPY | Worst · best | Events |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FIS Fidelity National Information … | -7.01%-7.9 to -5.7 | Medium | -3.42% | 24% | -6.23% | -20% · +29% | 17 |
| 2 | CPRT Copart | -4.52%-7.4 to -4.0 | Low | -3.24% | 27% | -9.63% | -13% · +17% | 11 |
| 3 | NIVF meme | -77.12%-86.9 to -66.8 | Medium | -27.48% | 14% | -83.23% | -93% · +436% | 14 |
| 4 | TLT meme | +0.16%-1.7 to +1.2 | Low | +0.31% | 55% | -3.91% | -9% · +12% | 11 |
| 5 | CHTR Charter Communications | -7.50%-11.6 to -4.3 | Medium | -4.65% | 27% | -12.00% | -27% · +31% | 15 |
| 6 | NEE NextEra Energy | +1.95%+0.2 to +5.8 | Medium | +3.94% | 75% | +2.56% | -19% · +29% | 12 |
| 7 | HRL Hormel Foods | +0.80%-1.4 to +2.6 | Medium | +2.18% | 50% | -3.27% | -13% · +20% | 16 |
| 8 | PNR Pentair | -12.54%-15.0 to -7.9 | Low | -4.92% | 23% | -8.30% | -18% · +35% | 13 |
| 9 | KR Kroger | +3.27%+3.2 to +4.2 | Low | +3.42% | 83% | -3.28% | 0% · +7% | 6 |
| 10 | DOC Healthpeak Properties | +0.52%-1.8 to +3.6 | Medium | +1.78% | 60% | +0.40% | -19% · +21% | 15 |
| 11 | ZBH Zimmer Biomet | +2.05%-0.7 to +3.0 | Medium | +1.69% | 62% | -0.64% | -22% · +18% | 16 |
| 12 | ALLE Allegion | -1.04%-4.8 to +1.2 | Medium | +4.20% | 40% | -0.42% | -11% · +30% | 10 |
| 13 | ITW Illinois Tool Works | +1.70%-0.6 to +3.4 | Low | +1.74% | 60% | +0.13% | -8% · +15% | 10 |
| 14 | FAST Fastenal | +3.48%+2.1 to +5.7 | Low | +3.63% | 80% | +3.91% | -6% · +17% | 10 |
| 15 | GRMN Garmin | -7.69%-10.5 to +1.5 | Low | -3.74% | 33% | -5.93% | -14% · +16% | 6 |
| 16 | APA APA Corporation | -3.61%-8.7 to -1.3 | Low | -1.41% | 33% | -8.59% | -18% · +23% | 9 |
| 17 | COO Cooper Companies (The) | -1.29%-4.5 to +2.3 | Medium | +2.32% | 43% | -5.96% | -19% · +39% | 21 |
| 18 | AMCR Amcor | +2.00%-0.3 to +8.4 | Low | +2.93% | 70% | -4.74% | -9% · +11% | 10 |
| 19 | FE FirstEnergy | +3.89%+0.7 to +4.3 | Low | +3.62% | 100% | -1.13% | +1% · +8% | 5 |
| 20 | AZO AutoZone | +1.92%-2.3 to +3.4 | Low | +3.30% | 67% | +1.21% | -2% · +14% | 6 |
| 21 | CRL Charles River Laboratories | -4.50%-8.0 to +2.5 | Medium | +0.52% | 36% | -6.99% | -36% · +59% | 14 |
| 22 | BIIB Biogen | -4.95%-12.4 to +2.7 | Medium | -3.24% | 33% | -7.18% | -18% · +20% | 15 |
| 23 | ALGN Align Technology | -7.78%-12.7 to +0.3 | Medium | -6.17% | 38% | -10.04% | -34% · +25% | 13 |
| 24 | VBIO meme | -43.14%-56.0 to -25.5 | Medium | -38.57% | 13% | -40.71% | -82% · +13% | 15 |
| 25 | CINF Cincinnati Financial | -3.66%-13.0 to +1.6 | Low | -3.19% | 38% | -9.13% | -21% · +17% | 8 |
Stocks with at least 3 independent periods, ordered on an evidence-weighted median: each stock's median is pulled toward the S&P 500 typical value in proportion to its uncertainty, so a lucky handful of events cannot top the list. Confidence counts independent holding periods (overlapping ones count once): High 20+, Medium 8+, Low 3+. Median and average gain over the next quarter from the entry close; Up = share of events followed by a gain; vs SPY = median gain minus SPY over the same sessions. Ranks on the stock pages place each stock among the S&P 500 stocks. Small samples are noisy, and the past does not repeat on schedule. Not advice.