Underperforming without a clear catalyst yet
- NAMM −3.08% on the last session vs SPY +0.74%: −3.8 pts of stock-specific move.
- Aftermath, big gain (Oct 1): After its 4 big gains in the past 5 years, NAMM typically lost 3.3% over the next day (median) and was higher only 25% of the time; half the outcomes fell between -4.7% and -2.0%. An ordinary day: -1.5%. Among S&P 500 stocks after big gains, that ranks #294 of 500. (Low confidence: few independent periods.)
- 0 Reddit mentions in the past 24 hours, 86% positive over the week.
- Market backdrop (Fri): Average Hourly Earnings m/m 0.1% vs 0.3% expected (cooler); Non-Farm Employment Change 29K vs 89K expected (weaker); S&P futures +0.41%, 10-year yield -5bp in the 30 minutes after.
After each kind of event
| Event | Events | 1 day | 1 week | 1 month | 1 quarter |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Any day | 333 | -1.5%#458 H | -4.8%#469 H | -17.1%#460 M | -33.8%#501 L |
| Big drop (-9.0% or worse) | 1 | -6.4%– | -23.4%– | — | — |
| Big gain Oct 1 (+6.9% or better) | 4 | -3.3%#294 L | -13.8%#471 L | -9.2%– | — |
| Earnings beat | — | — | — | — | — |
| Earnings miss | — | — | — | — | — |
| 52-week high | — | — | — | — | — |
| 52-week low | — | — | — | — | — |
| Crossed above 200-day avg | 1 | -3.3%– | -20.2%– | -25.2%– | -43.4%– |
| Crossed below 200-day avg | 1 | -4.0%– | 0.0%– | -16.5%– | -28.5%– |
| RSI oversold Sep 30 | 6 | +3.9%#218 L | -3.4%#325 L | -11.7%#302 L | +103.1%#187 L |
| RSI overbought | 2 | +40.2%– | +81.5%– | +9.5%– | -24.1%– |
| Reddit spike | 1 | +6.0%– | -12.8%– | -6.0%– | -45.7%– |
| Analyst upgrade | — | — | — | — | — |
| Analyst downgrade | — | — | — | — | — |
| Insider buy | — | — | — | — | — |
| Insider unplanned sale | — | — | — | — | — |
Median gain from the close of the session the event was known, over each holding period; #rank among the S&P 500 stocks after the same kind of event (#1 = best). "Big" is NAMM's own: its worst / best 10% of days over the prior 2 years. Highlighted: happening in the latest session.
RSI oversold
The 14-day RSI falls below 30.
| Holding | Events | Median (likely range) | Confidence | Rank | Up | vs SPY | Range of outcomes (worst · 25–75% · median · best) | vs S&P 500 stocks (their medians) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 day | 6 | +3.94% (-2.9 to +5.0) | Low | #218 of 496 | 67% | +3.81% |
-3%
+36%
|
|
| 1 week | 5 | -3.38% (-6.7 to -2.9) | Low | #325 of 496 | 20% | -4.25% |
-19%
+6%
|
|
| 1 month | 5 ≈4 indep. | -11.71% (-28.6 to +25.7) | Low | #302 of 495 | 40% | -12.85% |
-29%
+291%
|
|
| 1 quarter | 5 ≈3 indep. | +103.13% (-7.4 to +113.5) | Low | #187 of 493 | 60% | +100.53% |
-65%
+152%
|
Range of outcomes: all of NAMM's oversold readings in the past 5 years, from the worst to the best result over each holding period; the box holds the middle half, the tick is the median. A wide box means the median alone says little. Hover the median for the average.
RSI oversold by trend
| When it happened | Events | 1 day | 1 week | 1 month | 1 quarter |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Long trendAbove its 200-day avg | — | — | — | — | — |
| Below its 200-day avg now | 2 | +16.2%– vs -0.9% | -3.4%– vs -3.4% | +25.7%– vs -11.1% | -7.4%– vs -27.5% |
| Medium trendAbove its 50-day avg | — | — | — | — | — |
| Below its 50-day avg now | 6 | +3.9%L vs -0.9% | -3.4%L vs -3.0% | -11.7%L vs -11.9% | +103.1%L vs -19.3% |
| Short trendAbove its 20-day avg now | — | — | — | — | — |
| Below its 20-day avg | 6 | +3.9%L vs -0.9% | -3.4%L vs -3.5% | -11.7%L vs -13.3% | +103.1%L vs -24.0% |
The same event split by where NAMM stood against its 200-, 50- and 20-day averages when it happened (a dip in an uptrend vs a falling knife); "vs" is the plain any-day median in that trend; "now" marks where it stands today. Splitting halves the evidence, so watch the confidence letters: H / M / L.
Latest oversold readings
| Event | Entry | 1 day | 1 week | 1 month | 1 quarter | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 30, 2026 | Sep 30 @ $0.96 | RSI 28.3, -4.7% on the day | +35.7% | … | … | … |
| May 15, 2026 | May 15 @ $1.48 | RSI 28.8, -5.1% on the day | -3.4% | -3.4% | +25.7% | -7.4% |
| Dec 23, 2025 | Dec 23 @ $1.04 | RSI 29.6, -6.3% on the day | +2.9% | -2.9% | +291.3% | +113.5% |
| Dec 8, 2025 | Dec 8 @ $1.20 | RSI 28.8, -7.0% on the day | +5.0% | -6.7% | -18.3% | +151.7% |
| Oct 30, 2025 | Oct 30 @ $1.92 | RSI 29.6, -6.3% on the day | -2.9% | -18.8% | -28.6% | +103.1% |
| Sep 19, 2025 | Sep 19 @ $2.99 | RSI 29.6, -2.9% on the day | +7.4% | +5.7% | -11.7% | -65.2% |
Aftermath: entry is the close of the first session the event was fully known (the same session for price moves, the reaction session for earnings, the next session for Reddit, analyst and insider events, which are dated by day). Repeats within a few sessions count as one event. Past performance after an event says nothing certain about the next one. Not advice.