AAL
Moving with its travel & car rental peers
- AAL +3.31% on the last session vs SPY +0.10%: +3.2 pts of stock-specific move.
- Earnings Oct 22 before the open: EPS −$0.31 expected (8 analysts).
- Travel & car rental basket +3.4% (+3.3 pts vs SPY; EXPE +6.2%, HTZ +5.4%, BKNG +3.8%, ABNB +3.3%): the stock moved with its peers.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices AAL only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
12.05 +2.2% ↑ more often after a big drop
reached 3 in 10 days · 31% vs usual 28% reached today |
12.39 +5.1% ↑ more often after a big drop
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 31% vs usual 30% |
| Now | 12.18 · prior close 11.79 | |
| Bargain buy side |
11.53 -2.2% ↓ less often while far below its high
reached 2 in 10 days · 24% vs usual 26% |
11.22 -4.8% ↓ less often while far below its high
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 25% vs usual 27% |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 11.45 | 2 in 10 days↓ 15% vs 17% | 12.14 | 2 in 10 days↑ 20% vs 17% |
| Balanced | 11.53 | 2 in 10 days↓ 24% vs 26% | 12.05 | 3 in 10 days↑ 31% vs 28% |
| Eager | 11.61 | 4 in 10 days↓ 40% vs 41% | 11.97 | 5 in 10 days↑ 49% vs 45% |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 11.04 | 2 in 10 weeks↓ 16% vs 18% | 12.59 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 11.22 | 3 in 10 weeks↓ 25% vs 27% | 12.39 | 3 in 10 weeks↑ 31% vs 30% |
| Eager | 11.39 | 4 in 10 weeks↓ 41% vs 43% | 12.20 | 5 in 10 weeks↑ 49% vs 48% |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From AAL's daily swings (about 2.3% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
- Stretch price, next session: reached 31% of days instead of the usual 28% (held in 9 of 10 years)
- Stretch price, next 5 sessions: reached 31% of weeks instead of the usual 30% (held in 8 of 10 years)
| Date | That day | 1 week on | 1 month on | 3 months on |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 10, 2026 | -5.9% | -3.8% | -13.7% | — |
| Jul 17, 2026 | -4.0% | -3.3% | -3.7% | — |
| Jul 8, 2026 | -4.0% | -5.4% | -3.0% | -21.3% |
| Jun 10, 2026 | -4.8% | +14.9% | +21.5% | -4.2% |
| May 11, 2026 | -4.2% | -3.4% | +4.9% | +19.5% |
| Apr 20, 2026 | -4.2% | -4.6% | -1.5% | +24.8% |
| Mar 27, 2026 | -3.8% | +5.8% | +13.0% | +74.0% |
| Mar 5, 2026 | -5.4% | -10.5% | -7.5% | +12.8% |
- Bargain price, next session: reached 24% of days instead of the usual 26% (held in 9 of 10 years)
- Bargain price, next 5 sessions: reached 25% of weeks instead of the usual 27% (held in 10 of 10 years)
Big drop and big gain: among AAL's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| All-time closing high Nov 22, 2006 |
59.35 +387.2% |
| 52-week closing high Jul 1, 2026 |
18.15 +49.0% |
| 200-day average | 13.71 +12.6% |
| 50-day average | 13.50 +10.8% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 12.39 +1.7% |
| Now | 12.18 |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
11.79 -3.2% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 11.22 -7.9% |
| 52-week closing low Mar 30, 2026 |
10.18 -16.4% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 21 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.