AAON
Underperforming without a clear catalyst yet
- AAON −7.33% on the last session vs SPY +0.09%: −7.4 pts of stock-specific move.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices AAON only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
82.98 +3.0% ↑ more often after a big drop
reached 3 in 10 days · 31% vs usual 28% |
86.10 +6.9% ↑ more often after a big drop
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 31% vs usual 30% |
| Now | 74.62 · prior close 80.53 | |
| Bargain buy side |
78.16 -2.9% ↓ less often while far below its high
reached 2 in 10 days · 24% vs usual 26% reached today |
75.32 -6.5% ↓ less often while far below its high
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 25% vs usual 27% |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 77.40 | 2 in 10 days↓ 15% vs 17% | 83.79 | 2 in 10 days↑ 20% vs 17% |
| Balanced | 78.16 | 2 in 10 days↓ 24% vs 26% | 82.98 | 3 in 10 days↑ 31% vs 28% |
| Eager | 78.87 | 4 in 10 days↓ 40% vs 41% | 82.23 | 5 in 10 days↑ 49% vs 45% |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 73.70 | 2 in 10 weeks↓ 16% vs 18% | 87.99 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 75.32 | 3 in 10 weeks↓ 25% vs 27% | 86.10 | 3 in 10 weeks↑ 31% vs 30% |
| Eager | 76.86 | 4 in 10 weeks↓ 41% vs 43% | 84.38 | 5 in 10 weeks↑ 49% vs 48% |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From AAON's daily swings (about 3.1% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
- Stretch price, next session: reached 31% of days instead of the usual 28% (held in 9 of 10 years)
- Stretch price, next 5 sessions: reached 31% of weeks instead of the usual 30% (held in 8 of 10 years)
| Date | That day | 1 week on | 1 month on | 3 months on |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 28, 2026 | -4.2% | -1.2% | — | — |
| Sep 14, 2026 | -5.3% | +1.1% | +14.1% | — |
| Aug 18, 2026 | -6.8% | -7.2% | -6.7% | — |
| Aug 10, 2026 | -5.9% | -1.3% | -13.6% | — |
| Jul 28, 2026 | -7.2% | +1.9% | -14.9% | — |
| Jul 20, 2026 | -6.8% | -2.8% | -21.0% | — |
| Jul 1, 2026 | -8.2% | -5.3% | -23.5% | -28.8% |
| Jun 23, 2026 | -4.9% | -2.0% | -16.8% | -38.7% |
- Bargain price, next session: reached 24% of days instead of the usual 26% (held in 9 of 10 years)
- Bargain price, next 5 sessions: reached 25% of weeks instead of the usual 27% (held in 10 of 10 years)
Big drop and big gain: among AAON's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| All-time and 52-week closing high Jun 3, 2026 |
147.96 +98.3% |
| 200-day average | 98.03 +31.4% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 86.10 +15.4% |
| 50-day average | 81.57 +9.3% |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
80.53 +7.9% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 75.32 +0.9% |
| Now | 74.62 |
| 52-week closing low Dec 17, 2025 |
73.25 -1.8% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 34 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.