AAP
Outperforming without a clear catalyst yet
- AAP +4.59% on the last session vs SPY +0.01%: +4.6 pts of stock-specific move.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices AAP only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
42.90 +3.1% reached 3 in 10 days reached today |
44.54 +7.0% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
| Now | 43.53 · prior close 41.62 | |
| Bargain buy side |
40.38 -3.0% reached 3 in 10 days |
38.89 -6.6% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 39.98 | 2 in 10 days | 43.33 | 2 in 10 days |
| Balanced | 40.38 | 3 in 10 days | 42.90 | 3 in 10 days |
| Eager | 40.75 | 4 in 10 days | 42.51 | 5 in 10 days |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 38.04 | 2 in 10 weeks | 45.53 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 38.89 | 3 in 10 weeks | 44.54 | 3 in 10 weeks |
| Eager | 39.70 | 4 in 10 weeks | 43.64 | 5 in 10 weeks |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From AAP's daily swings (about 3.1% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
Big drop and big gain: among AAP's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| All-time closing high Jan 6, 2022 |
214.83 +393.5% |
| 52-week closing high Jul 1, 2026 |
62.36 +43.3% |
| 200-day average | 50.98 +17.1% |
| 50-day average | 44.71 +2.7% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 44.54 +2.3% |
| Now | 43.53 |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
41.62 -4.4% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 38.89 -10.7% |
| 52-week closing low Jan 5, 2026 |
37.95 -12.8% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 25 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.