AAPL
Moving with the market
- AAPL +0.09% on the last session vs SPY +0.10%: −0.0 pts of stock-specific move.
- News: Apple Intelligence test version to reach China users later this month, Reuters reported via Tim Cook interview. (tikr.com)
- Aftermath, 52-week high ($343.26 today so far, above its 52-week closing high of $342.96): After its 13 new 52-week highs in the past 5 years, AAPL was higher a day later 9 times out of 13; half the outcomes fell between -0.0% and +0.4%. History, not a forecast.
- 71 Reddit mentions in the past 24 hours, 75% positive over the week · today's pace is 2.0× its recent daily average.
- 1 analyst action in the past 10 days (1 positive, 0 negative); latest: JP Morgan maintained Overweight, raised target $340 → $360.
- 7 insider or congressional trades in the past 30 days.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices AAPL only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
347.07 +1.2% ↓ less often after a new 52-week high
reached 3 in 10 days · 25% vs usual 28% reached today |
352.22 +2.7% ↓ less often after a new 52-week high
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 27% vs usual 30% |
| Now | 343.26 · prior close 342.96 | |
| Bargain buy side |
338.90 -1.2% reached 3 in 10 days |
333.94 -2.6% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 337.59 | 2 in 10 days | 348.42 | 2 in 10 days↓ 15% vs 17% |
| Balanced | 338.90 | 3 in 10 days | 347.07 | 3 in 10 days↓ 25% vs 28% |
| Eager | 340.12 | 4 in 10 days | 345.82 | 4 in 10 days↓ 43% vs 45% |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 331.06 | 2 in 10 weeks | 355.29 | 2 in 10 weeks↓ 16% vs 19% |
| Balanced | 333.94 | 3 in 10 weeks | 352.22 | 3 in 10 weeks↓ 27% vs 30% |
| Eager | 336.65 | 4 in 10 weeks | 349.39 | 5 in 10 weeks↓ 45% vs 48% |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From AAPL's daily swings (about 1.2% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
- Stretch price, next session: reached 25% of days instead of the usual 28% (held in 10 of 10 years)
- Stretch price, next 5 sessions: reached 27% of weeks instead of the usual 30% (held in 9 of 10 years)
| Date | That day | 1 week on | 1 month on | 3 months on |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 25, 2026 | +1.5% | -2.2% | — | — |
| Jul 9, 2026 | +0.9% | +5.4% | -0.9% | +6.6% |
| May 6, 2026 | +1.2% | +4.0% | +7.0% | +8.8% |
| Nov 24, 2025 | +1.6% | +3.7% | -0.8% | -1.0% |
| Oct 20, 2025 | +3.9% | +2.5% | +2.1% | -5.5% |
| Nov 29, 2024 | +1.0% | +2.3% | +5.5% | -0.6% |
| Oct 18, 2024 | +1.2% | -1.5% | -2.9% | -4.6% |
| Jul 15, 2024 | +1.7% | -4.5% | -5.5% | -2.8% |
Big drop and big gain: among AAPL's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| Highest analyst target | 405.00 +18.0% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 352.22 +2.6% |
| Now | 343.26 |
| All-time and 52-week closing high Oct 15, 2026 |
343.26 0.0% |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
342.96 -0.1% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 333.94 -2.7% |
| Mean analyst target | 329.38 -4.0% |
| 50-day average | 325.09 -5.3% |
| 200-day average | 291.79 -15.0% |
| 52-week closing low Jan 20, 2026 |
246.03 -28.3% |
| Lowest analyst target | 215.00 -37.4% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 46 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.