AAUC
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices AAUC only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Next session | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
19.34 +2.9% ↑ more often after a big drop
reached 3 in 10 days · 31% vs usual 28% |
20.02 +6.5% ↑ more often after a big drop
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 31% vs usual 30% |
| Last close | 18.80 | |
| Bargain buy side |
18.28 -2.8% ↓ less often while far below its high
reached 2 in 10 days · 24% vs usual 26% |
17.65 -6.1% ↓ less often while far below its high
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 25% vs usual 27% |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Next session | ||||
| Patient | 18.11 | 2 in 10 days↓ 15% vs 17% | 19.52 | 2 in 10 days↑ 20% vs 17% |
| Balanced | 18.28 | 2 in 10 days↓ 24% vs 26% | 19.34 | 3 in 10 days↑ 31% vs 28% |
| Eager | 18.43 | 4 in 10 days↓ 40% vs 41% | 19.17 | 5 in 10 days↑ 49% vs 45% |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 17.29 | 2 in 10 weeks↓ 16% vs 18% | 20.44 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 17.65 | 3 in 10 weeks↓ 25% vs 27% | 20.02 | 3 in 10 weeks↑ 31% vs 30% |
| Eager | 17.99 | 4 in 10 weeks↓ 41% vs 43% | 19.64 | 5 in 10 weeks↑ 49% vs 48% |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From AAUC's daily swings (about 2.9% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 30 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 30 close
- Stretch price, next session: reached 31% of days instead of the usual 28% (held in 9 of 10 years)
- Stretch price, next 5 sessions: reached 31% of weeks instead of the usual 30% (held in 8 of 10 years)
| Date | That day | 1 week on | 1 month on | 3 months on |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 22, 2026 | -3.9% | -0.9% | — | — |
| Oct 14, 2026 | -4.8% | +6.6% | — | — |
| Sep 28, 2026 | -5.7% | -5.9% | -3.3% | — |
| Sep 14, 2026 | -5.5% | +3.7% | -5.9% | — |
| Aug 18, 2026 | -6.2% | +13.3% | +2.6% | — |
| Jul 29, 2026 | -18.3% | +15.6% | +41.6% | +19.3% |
| Jul 16, 2026 | -4.2% | +1.2% | +8.6% | -7.7% |
| Jul 8, 2026 | -3.8% | -3.4% | -8.8% | -10.9% |
- Bargain price, next session: reached 24% of days instead of the usual 26% (held in 9 of 10 years)
- Bargain price, next 5 sessions: reached 25% of weeks instead of the usual 27% (held in 10 of 10 years)
Big drop and big gain: among AAUC's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| All-time and 52-week closing high Jan 29, 2026 |
32.01 +70.3% |
| 200-day average | 26.10 +38.8% |
| 50-day average | 21.52 +14.5% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 20.02 +6.5% |
| Last close Oct 30, 2026 |
18.80 |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 17.65 -6.1% |
| 52-week closing low Nov 4, 2025 |
14.66 -22.0% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 2 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from the last close. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.