ABBV
Moving with its group (XLV +2.6%)
- ABBV +1.69% on the last session vs SPY +0.04%: +1.6 pts of stock-specific move.
- The health care ETF (XLV) +2.6% (+2.6 pts vs SPY): the stock moved with its group.
- Aftermath, rsi overbought (RSI 73 today so far, above 70): After its 22 overbought readings in the past 5 years, ABBV was higher a week later 16 times out of 22; half the outcomes fell between -0.2% and +3.0%. History, not a forecast.
- 6 analyst actions in the past 10 days (5 positive, 0 negative); latest: UBS maintained Neutral, raised target $260 → $275.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices ABBV only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
287.55 +1.4% ↓ less often after a big gain
reached 3 in 10 days · 26% vs usual 28% reached today |
292.66 +3.2% ↓ less often after a big gain
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 26% vs usual 30% |
| Now | 288.27 · prior close 283.48 | |
| Bargain buy side |
279.47 -1.4% ↓ less often after a big gain
reached 3 in 10 days · 25% vs usual 26% |
274.59 -3.1% ↓ less often after a big gain
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 25% vs usual 27% |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 278.18 | 2 in 10 days↓ 16% vs 17% | 288.88 | 2 in 10 days↓ 16% vs 17% |
| Balanced | 279.47 | 3 in 10 days↓ 25% vs 26% | 287.55 | 3 in 10 days↓ 26% vs 28% |
| Eager | 280.68 | 4 in 10 days | 286.31 | 4 in 10 days↓ 42% vs 45% |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 271.77 | 2 in 10 weeks↓ 16% vs 18% | 295.70 | 2 in 10 weeks↓ 15% vs 19% |
| Balanced | 274.59 | 3 in 10 weeks↓ 25% vs 27% | 292.66 | 3 in 10 weeks↓ 26% vs 30% |
| Eager | 277.25 | 4 in 10 weeks↓ 40% vs 43% | 289.85 | 4 in 10 weeks↓ 44% vs 48% |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From ABBV's daily swings (about 1.5% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
- Stretch price, next session: reached 26% of days instead of the usual 28% (held in 8 of 10 years)
- Bargain price, next session: reached 25% of days instead of the usual 26% (held in 8 of 10 years)
- Stretch price, next 5 sessions: reached 26% of weeks instead of the usual 30% (held in 10 of 10 years)
- Bargain price, next 5 sessions: reached 25% of weeks instead of the usual 27% (held in 8 of 10 years)
| Date | That day | 1 week on | 1 month on | 3 months on |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 18, 2026 | +3.4% | +2.7% | +2.0% | — |
| Jul 28, 2026 | +2.4% | -7.4% | -0.1% | — |
| Jul 16, 2026 | +4.2% | +1.0% | -1.9% | +11.4% |
| Jul 2, 2026 | +4.0% | -5.0% | -5.4% | +0.3% |
| Jun 22, 2026 | +6.2% | +10.6% | +10.9% | +15.8% |
| Jun 4, 2026 | +3.6% | -0.1% | +13.2% | +16.5% |
| May 12, 2026 | +2.5% | +2.8% | +8.1% | +20.5% |
| Apr 29, 2026 | +3.1% | +0.6% | +6.8% | +27.1% |
| Date | That day | 1 week on | 1 month on | 3 months on |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 28, 2026 | +0.7% | -0.2% | — | — |
| Jul 28, 2026 | +2.4% | -7.4% | -0.1% | — |
| Jun 25, 2026 | +3.5% | +7.4% | +6.4% | +9.8% |
| Sep 4, 2025 | +0.5% | +3.4% | +9.8% | +8.9% |
| Feb 21, 2025 | +0.6% | +3.4% | +3.5% | -8.8% |
| Oct 30, 2024 | +6.4% | -0.1% | -9.2% | -4.7% |
| Sep 3, 2024 | +0.7% | +0.8% | -0.4% | -7.3% |
| Jul 25, 2024 | +3.4% | +4.1% | +8.4% | +4.0% |
Big drop and big gain: among ABBV's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| Highest analyst target | 328.00 +13.8% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 292.66 +1.5% |
| Now | 288.27 |
| All-time and 52-week closing high Oct 15, 2026 |
288.27 0.0% |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
283.48 -1.7% |
| Mean analyst target | 282.61 -2.0% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 274.59 -4.7% |
| 50-day average | 261.72 -9.2% |
| 200-day average | 231.89 -19.6% |
| Lowest analyst target | 200.00 -30.6% |
| 52-week closing low Apr 27, 2026 |
195.99 -32.0% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 14 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.