ABG
Outperforming without a clear catalyst yet
- ABG +5.87% on the last session vs SPY +0.00%: +5.9 pts of stock-specific move.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices ABG only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
165.18 +2.0% ↑ more often after a new 52-week low
reached 4 in 10 days · 36% vs usual 28% reached today |
169.24 +4.5% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
| Now | 171.47 · prior close 161.97 | |
| Bargain buy side |
158.82 -1.9% ↓ less often while far below its high
reached 2 in 10 days · 24% vs usual 26% |
155.01 -4.3% ↓ less often while far below its high
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 25% vs usual 27% |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 157.81 | 2 in 10 days↓ 15% vs 17% | 166.24 | 3 in 10 days↑ 25% vs 17% |
| Balanced | 158.82 | 2 in 10 days↓ 24% vs 26% | 165.18 | 4 in 10 days↑ 36% vs 28% |
| Eager | 159.77 | 4 in 10 days↓ 40% vs 41% | 164.20 | 5 in 10 days↑ 52% vs 45% |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 152.81 | 2 in 10 weeks↓ 16% vs 18% | 171.67 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 155.01 | 3 in 10 weeks↓ 25% vs 27% | 169.24 | 3 in 10 weeks |
| Eager | 157.08 | 4 in 10 weeks↓ 41% vs 43% | 167.01 | 5 in 10 weeks |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From ABG's daily swings (about 2.0% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
- Stretch price, next session: reached 36% of days instead of the usual 28% (held in 9 of 10 years)
| Date | That day | 1 week on | 1 month on | 3 months on |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 29, 2026 | -3.2% | -2.4% | — | — |
| May 15, 2026 | -7.2% | +4.8% | +11.5% | +16.4% |
| Mar 2, 2026 | -1.4% | -3.1% | -7.3% | -11.5% |
| Sep 21, 2022 | -1.8% | +4.8% | -6.1% | +5.6% |
| Jul 14, 2022 | -6.5% | +10.7% | +22.4% | +3.4% |
| Feb 4, 2022 | -6.9% | +5.8% | +22.6% | +25.5% |
- Bargain price, next session: reached 24% of days instead of the usual 26% (held in 9 of 10 years)
- Bargain price, next 5 sessions: reached 25% of weeks instead of the usual 27% (held in 10 of 10 years)
Big drop and big gain: among ABG's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| All-time closing high Jan 30, 2025 |
305.86 +78.4% |
| 52-week closing high Jan 9, 2026 |
256.03 +49.3% |
| 200-day average | 207.40 +21.0% |
| 50-day average | 195.79 +14.2% |
| Now | 171.47 |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 169.24 -1.3% |
| 52-week closing low Oct 14, 2026 |
161.97 -5.5% |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
161.97 -5.5% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 155.01 -9.6% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 25 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.