ABNB
Moving with its travel & car rental peers
- ABNB +3.47% on the last session vs SPY +0.13%: +3.3 pts of stock-specific move.
- Travel & car rental basket +3.3% (+3.1 pts vs SPY; EXPE +6.2%, HTZ +5.4%, BKNG +3.9%, AAL +3.1%): the stock moved with its peers.
- Aftermath, big gain (+3.5% today so far, past its big-gain line of +2.6%): After its 50 big gains in the past 5 years, ABNB was higher a week later 33 times out of 50; half the outcomes fell between -1.7% and +4.2%. History, not a forecast.
- 1 analyst action in the past 10 days (0 positive, 1 negative); latest: Wells Fargo maintained Overweight, lowered target $186 → $185.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices ABNB only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
170.73 +2.2% reached 3 in 10 days reached today |
175.38 +5.0% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
| Now | 172.85 · prior close 167.06 | |
| Bargain buy side |
163.47 -2.2% reached 3 in 10 days |
159.13 -4.7% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 162.32 | 2 in 10 days | 171.94 | 2 in 10 days |
| Balanced | 163.47 | 3 in 10 days | 170.73 | 3 in 10 days |
| Eager | 164.55 | 4 in 10 days | 169.61 | 5 in 10 days |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 156.64 | 2 in 10 weeks | 178.17 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 159.13 | 3 in 10 weeks | 175.38 | 3 in 10 weeks |
| Eager | 161.49 | 4 in 10 weeks | 172.82 | 5 in 10 weeks |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From ABNB's daily swings (about 2.2% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
Big drop and big gain: among ABNB's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| Highest analyst target | 220.00 +27.3% |
| All-time closing high Feb 11, 2021 |
216.84 +25.4% |
| 52-week closing high Aug 25, 2026 |
190.50 +10.2% |
| Mean analyst target | 183.56 +6.2% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 175.38 +1.5% |
| Now | 172.85 |
| 50-day average | 172.32 -0.3% |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
167.06 -3.4% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 159.13 -7.9% |
| 200-day average | 144.81 -16.2% |
| Lowest analyst target | 135.00 -21.9% |
| 52-week closing low Nov 20, 2025 |
111.54 -35.5% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 6 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.