ABR
Outperforming without a clear catalyst yet
- ABR +10.54% on the last session vs SPY +0.09%: +10.4 pts of stock-specific move.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices ABR only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
2.71 +3.7% ↑ more often after a new 52-week low
reached 4 in 10 days · 36% vs usual 28% reached today |
2.83 +8.5% ↑ more often after a big drop
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 31% vs usual 30% |
| Now | 2.88 · prior close 2.61 | |
| Bargain buy side |
2.52 -3.6% ↓ less often while far below its high
reached 2 in 10 days · 24% vs usual 26% |
2.41 -7.8% ↓ less often while far below its high
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 25% vs usual 27% |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 2.49 | 2 in 10 days↓ 15% vs 17% | 2.74 | 3 in 10 days↑ 25% vs 17% |
| Balanced | 2.52 | 2 in 10 days↓ 24% vs 26% | 2.71 | 4 in 10 days↑ 36% vs 28% |
| Eager | 2.54 | 4 in 10 days↓ 40% vs 41% | 2.68 | 5 in 10 days↑ 52% vs 45% |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 2.34 | 2 in 10 weeks↓ 16% vs 18% | 2.91 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 2.41 | 3 in 10 weeks↓ 25% vs 27% | 2.83 | 3 in 10 weeks↑ 31% vs 30% |
| Eager | 2.47 | 4 in 10 weeks↓ 41% vs 43% | 2.76 | 5 in 10 weeks↑ 49% vs 48% |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From ABR's daily swings (about 3.8% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
- Stretch price, next 5 sessions: reached 31% of weeks instead of the usual 30% (held in 8 of 10 years)
| Date | That day | 1 week on | 1 month on | 3 months on |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 8, 2026 | -4.9% | — | — | — |
| Sep 30, 2026 | -2.8% | -15.8% | — | — |
| Sep 18, 2026 | -4.5% | -5.8% | — | — |
| Sep 8, 2026 | -4.6% | -9.8% | -35.1% | — |
| Jul 30, 2026 | -5.7% | +7.1% | +9.2% | — |
| Jul 20, 2026 | -2.9% | +1.0% | +0.7% | — |
| Jul 6, 2026 | -5.5% | -1.4% | +4.8% | -26.1% |
| Jun 22, 2026 | -2.7% | +5.5% | -0.4% | -11.4% |
- Stretch price, next session: reached 36% of days instead of the usual 28% (held in 9 of 10 years)
| Date | That day | 1 week on | 1 month on | 3 months on |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 15, 2026 | -2.8% | -2.9% | -42.3% | — |
| Jul 30, 2026 | -5.7% | +7.1% | +9.2% | — |
| Jun 11, 2026 | -0.8% | +0.8% | -3.1% | -5.5% |
| May 11, 2026 | -7.6% | -9.3% | -19.6% | -17.3% |
| Feb 2, 2026 | -3.0% | +4.7% | +18.5% | +9.3% |
| Dec 18, 2025 | -2.7% | -1.1% | 0.0% | -2.5% |
| Nov 17, 2025 | -6.1% | +2.9% | +0.4% | -9.5% |
| May 21, 2025 | -9.3% | +8.4% | +15.0% | +28.3% |
- Bargain price, next session: reached 24% of days instead of the usual 26% (held in 9 of 10 years)
- Bargain price, next 5 sessions: reached 25% of weeks instead of the usual 27% (held in 10 of 10 years)
Big drop and big gain: among ABR's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| All-time closing high Sep 27, 2024 |
12.20 +322.9% |
| 52-week closing high Oct 27, 2025 |
10.46 +262.5% |
| 200-day average | 5.88 +103.8% |
| 50-day average | 4.43 +53.7% |
| Now | 2.88 |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 2.83 -1.8% |
| 52-week closing low Oct 14, 2026 |
2.61 -9.5% |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
2.61 -9.5% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 2.41 -16.6% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 22 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.