ACAD
Outperforming without a clear catalyst yet
- ACAD +2.29% on the last session vs SPY +0.02%: +2.3 pts of stock-specific move.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices ACAD only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
19.85 +3.1% ↓ less often after a big gain
reached 3 in 10 days · 26% vs usual 28% reached today |
20.62 +7.1% ↓ less often after a big gain
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 26% vs usual 30% |
| Now | 19.69 · prior close 19.25 | |
| Bargain buy side |
18.67 -3.0% ↓ less often after a big gain
reached 3 in 10 days · 25% vs usual 26% |
17.97 -6.7% ↓ less often after a big gain
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 25% vs usual 27% |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 18.48 | 2 in 10 days↓ 16% vs 17% | 20.05 | 2 in 10 days↓ 16% vs 17% |
| Balanced | 18.67 | 3 in 10 days↓ 25% vs 26% | 19.85 | 3 in 10 days↓ 26% vs 28% |
| Eager | 18.84 | 4 in 10 days | 19.67 | 4 in 10 days↓ 42% vs 45% |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 17.57 | 2 in 10 weeks↓ 16% vs 18% | 21.09 | 2 in 10 weeks↓ 15% vs 19% |
| Balanced | 17.97 | 3 in 10 weeks↓ 25% vs 27% | 20.62 | 3 in 10 weeks↓ 26% vs 30% |
| Eager | 18.35 | 4 in 10 weeks↓ 40% vs 43% | 20.20 | 4 in 10 weeks↓ 44% vs 48% |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From ACAD's daily swings (about 3.2% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
- Stretch price, next session: reached 26% of days instead of the usual 28% (held in 8 of 10 years)
- Bargain price, next session: reached 25% of days instead of the usual 26% (held in 8 of 10 years)
- Stretch price, next 5 sessions: reached 26% of weeks instead of the usual 30% (held in 10 of 10 years)
- Bargain price, next 5 sessions: reached 25% of weeks instead of the usual 27% (held in 8 of 10 years)
| Date | That day | 1 week on | 1 month on | 3 months on |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 18, 2026 | +4.0% | +1.3% | -9.0% | — |
| Aug 4, 2026 | +6.0% | +8.3% | +6.6% | — |
| Jun 26, 2026 | +6.7% | +1.8% | +2.7% | -18.3% |
| Jun 17, 2026 | +3.2% | +9.8% | +16.2% | +27.1% |
| May 7, 2026 | +5.0% | -2.1% | -3.8% | +29.5% |
| Apr 17, 2026 | +4.3% | -0.9% | -6.7% | +13.2% |
| Mar 25, 2026 | +5.0% | +1.4% | -0.2% | +7.8% |
| Mar 16, 2026 | +3.8% | -1.9% | +1.7% | -0.6% |
Big drop and big gain: among ACAD's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| All-time closing high Jul 7, 2020 |
57.00 +189.5% |
| 52-week closing high Aug 25, 2026 |
30.57 +55.3% |
| 50-day average | 25.74 +30.7% |
| 200-day average | 24.04 +22.1% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 20.62 +4.7% |
| Now | 19.69 |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
19.25 -2.2% |
| 52-week closing low Oct 13, 2026 |
18.62 -5.4% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 17.97 -8.7% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 22 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.