ACHC
Underperforming without a clear catalyst yet
- ACHC −1.01% on the last session vs SPY +0.10%: −1.1 pts of stock-specific move.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices ACHC only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
32.52 +2.7% ↓ less often after a big gain
reached 3 in 10 days · 26% vs usual 28% |
33.61 +6.1% ↓ less often after a big gain
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 26% vs usual 30% |
| Now | 31.35 · prior close 31.67 | |
| Bargain buy side |
30.84 -2.6% ↓ less often after a big gain
reached 3 in 10 days · 25% vs usual 26% |
29.84 -5.8% ↓ less often after a big gain
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 25% vs usual 27% |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 30.57 | 2 in 10 days↓ 16% vs 17% | 32.81 | 2 in 10 days↓ 16% vs 17% |
| Balanced | 30.84 | 3 in 10 days↓ 25% vs 26% | 32.52 | 3 in 10 days↓ 26% vs 28% |
| Eager | 31.09 | 4 in 10 days | 32.26 | 4 in 10 days↓ 42% vs 45% |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 29.27 | 2 in 10 weeks↓ 16% vs 18% | 34.27 | 2 in 10 weeks↓ 15% vs 19% |
| Balanced | 29.84 | 3 in 10 weeks↓ 25% vs 27% | 33.61 | 3 in 10 weeks↓ 26% vs 30% |
| Eager | 30.38 | 4 in 10 weeks↓ 40% vs 43% | 33.01 | 4 in 10 weeks↓ 44% vs 48% |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From ACHC's daily swings (about 2.7% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
- Stretch price, next session: reached 26% of days instead of the usual 28% (held in 8 of 10 years)
- Bargain price, next session: reached 25% of days instead of the usual 26% (held in 8 of 10 years)
- Stretch price, next 5 sessions: reached 26% of weeks instead of the usual 30% (held in 10 of 10 years)
- Bargain price, next 5 sessions: reached 25% of weeks instead of the usual 27% (held in 8 of 10 years)
| Date | That day | 1 week on | 1 month on | 3 months on |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 2, 2026 | +4.2% | +4.2% | — | — |
| Jul 31, 2026 | +5.3% | +6.4% | -7.0% | — |
| Jul 16, 2026 | +4.2% | +1.2% | -8.3% | -5.8% |
| Jun 25, 2026 | +5.1% | +21.6% | +23.9% | +5.9% |
| Jun 11, 2026 | +4.1% | -0.1% | +27.0% | +13.9% |
| Jun 2, 2026 | +4.8% | +4.4% | +30.7% | +15.7% |
| May 12, 2026 | +4.0% | -4.2% | -4.3% | +21.8% |
| May 1, 2026 | +7.5% | -9.6% | -12.3% | +9.8% |
Big drop and big gain: among ACHC's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| All-time closing high Nov 30, 2022 |
89.06 +184.1% |
| 52-week closing high Jul 21, 2026 |
35.61 +13.6% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 33.61 +7.2% |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
31.67 +1.0% |
| Now | 31.35 |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 29.84 -4.8% |
| 50-day average | 28.95 -7.7% |
| 200-day average | 24.86 -20.7% |
| 52-week closing low Jan 16, 2026 |
11.68 -62.7% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 33 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.